Al Qaeda's Latest Message A Signal To Carry Out Attacks?

The New York Sun reports that experts believe that the latest message by al Qaeda may be a signal to carry out attacks in coming weeks.

n the aftermath of two major terrorist attacks on Western targets, America's counterterrorism community is warning that Al Qaeda may launch more overseas operations to influence the presidential elections in November.

Call it Osama bin Laden's "October surprise." In late August, during the weekend between the Democratic and Republican conventions, America's military and intelligence agencies intercepted a series of messages from Al Qaeda's leadership to intermediate members of the organization asking local cells to be prepared for imminent instructions.

An official familiar with the new intelligence said the message was picked up in multiple settings, from couriers to encrypted electronic communications to other means. "These are generic orders," the source said — a distinction from the more specific intelligence about the location, time, and method of an attack. "It was, 'Be on notice. We may call upon you soon.' It was sent out on many channels."

Al Qaeda's message to coincide with the 9/11 attacks was disrupted and delayed by several days by a combination of intel services.

I said the same thing on the 19th. While the attacks could happen anywhere, and we've already seen major attacks in Pakistan and in Yemen, I think there's strong likelihood that an attack will occur in Egypt, especially given the focus of the message and Zawahiri's ties to the Islamists in the country.

The Sun also reports that Pakistan's President Zardari was scheduled to attend an Iftar dinner at the Marriott the evening of the bombing.

President Zardari, who had just given his first major address as Pakistan's head of state, on fighting the Taliban and Al Qaeda, was the target of Saturday's attack, the vice president for research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, said.

"He was expected to attend the iftar dinner at the Marriott," Mr. Gartenstein-Ross said "Think of the symbolic value if they were able to kill Zardari after his first address as president of Pakistan in a speech announcing his fight against the terrorists. The symbolic effect of the attack on the same day would be devastating."

This means that my impression that this may have been an assassination attempt / decapitation strike against the Pakistani government was right on target and means that the questions I posed about the knowledge and insight of the terrorists who carried out the attacks must be discovered - there is a serious penetration of Pakistani security by al Qaeda and the Islamists, and it is well known that the Pakistani intel, the ISI has Islamist leanings.

The message has been sent. What will the world's nations do to stop the ongoing threat?

UPDATE:
While much of the focus will be on the Taliban and al Qaeda as being behind the attacks, the group that deserves closer attention is the Islamists led by Baitullah Mehsud, whose minions have shown themselves to be quite capable in large scale operations against the Pakistani military and has the wherewithal to carry out bombings of this kind of scale.

Hot Air notes that the bomb appears to have been particularly sophisticated, and that it was an attempt to be a thermobaric weapon, to maximize the blast damage and explosive effect away from the crater. In other words, as bad as the bomb actually was, it was hoped to be far more deadly by causing buildings in the immediate vicinity to collapse and to shatter the idea that the heart of Islamabad was secure.

The Times of India reports that three arrests have been made in connection with the bombing, including an imam at a major mosque in Islamabad.

Among those arrested was Qari Muhammad Ali, imam of the main Jamia mosque in Kharian, Dawn News channel reported.

There was also no official word on the arrests and no further details were available.

The security forces have launched a massive manhunt in the capital as well as adjoining provinces to trace militant cells responsible for the suicide bombing, which killed 53 people, including two US marines and the Czech Ambassador to the country.

As part of the drive, investigators are looking into the possibilities that the bombers constructed a 600-kg bomb in a safe house in the capital itself, as transporting such a heavy bomb load could not pass the numerous checks on the highway leading to the capital.

Reports said Pakistani authorities had launched a crackdown over the weekend on leaders and members of banned organisations.

UPDATE:
For what it's worth, Mehsud's spokesthug claims that his group had nothing to do with the attack.

UPDATE:
To clarify, Zardari and key government officials were supposed to hold the Iftar dinner at the Marriott, but officials changed the venue for the dinner several hours earlier. The terrorists who carried out the attack weren't warned of the change, which is why it went forward at the Marriott. Also, it appears that the bomber first detonated a suicide vest, and the resulting fire ignited the massive bomb in the truck's cargo area. There was no second vehicle involved as had been speculated yesterday.