Musharraf Resigns

After weeks of threats by the Pakistani opposition to impeach Pervez Musharraf, Musharraf announced his resignation this morning.

Mr. Musharraf, 65, will stay in Pakistan in the immediate future, a request he had insisted on, according to Nasir Ali Khan, a senior member of the Pakistan Muslim League-N, a partner in the coalition. The coalition, led by Asif Ali Zardari, the leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party, and Nawaz Sharif, the chairman of the Pakistan Muslim League-N, were scheduled to meet here in the capital Monday afternoon to discuss the way forward, Mr. Khan said.

There were few indications of who the next president would be. According to the Constitution, a new president must be chosen within 30 days. American officials have said that Mr. Zardari, the widower of Benazir Bhutto, the former prime minister who was assassinated in December, would like the post. But Mr. Sharif, who maintains a barely civil relationship with Mr. Zardari, is strongly opposed to the elevation of Mr. Zardari.

Mr. Musharraf has been under strong pressure in the past few days, as the coalition said it had completed a charge sheet to take to Parliament for his impeachment. The charges were centered on “gross violations” of the Constitution, according to the minister of information, Sherry Rehman.

The rhetoric from the coalition mounted over the weekend, but the leading politicians wavered on an exact date for bringing the charges, thus leaving a window for Mr. Musharraf to leave.

In his speech, Mr. Musharraf tore into the coalition for what he called their failed economic policies. He said Pakistan’s critical economic situation — a declining currency, capital flight, soaring inflation — was their responsibility. In contrast, he said, his policies had brought prosperity out of near economic collapse when he took charge in 1999.

He then gave a laundry list of his achievements, ranging from expanded road networks to a national art gallery in the capital. Although Pakistan’s literacy rate hovers around 50 percent, and is much lower among women, he took credit for new schools.

The army, the most powerful institution in Pakistan, stayed publicly above the fray in the past 10 days. But in remaining studiously neutral and declining to come to Mr. Musharraf’s rescue, the new leader of the army, Gen. Ashfaq Parvaz Kayani, tipped the scales against the president, politicians said.

The big winners in this are Nawaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari, and Baitullah Mehsud. The first two are leaders of their respective political parties, and Mehsud is the most prominent leader of the Taliban, who controls much of the border regions along the Afghan-Pakistani border.

Mehsud continues to act as a world unto himself, and instituted Islamic law in the areas he claims dominion over. That's bad news for the Afghans and Pakistanis who aren't nearly as Islamic as Mehsud is.

Mehsud is a more dangerous factor in Pakistan than perhaps even al Qaeda, given that Mehsud controls a militia force that is capable of taking the fight to the Pakistani military and has forced Musharraf to tuck tail and run on several occasions. Mehsud's thugs are providing aid and comfort to al Qaeda, which is why the solution to the problems in Afghanistan actually rest on what goes on in Pakistan.

If the new government doesn't crack down on the Islamists or go after Mehsud, the ability to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan remains out of grasp.

More thoughts on what Musharraf's resignation means on key questions can be found at my earlier posting here. As I noted then, the fight over Musharraf's continued governance was as much a personal grudge match as it was over policy or politics or corruption. Sharif sought to do unto Musharraf that Musharraf had done unto him - namely overthrow the government and throw Musharraf in jail (Sharif had been Pakistani Prime Minister when Musharraf overthrew the government in 1999). Sharif and Zardari can barely stand each other. And Mehsud seeks nothing less than imposing an Islamist state in the areas he controls.