There are a number of stories on the wires suggesting that Pervez Musharraf, who led Pakistan until the recent elections resulted in his loss of power, will resign in the next few days. Expect the Army to make Musharraf keep his word.
He's supposedly to resign rather than face impeachment by the Parliament, which is led by Nawaz Sharif's party. The timing of the resignation will depend on the sides negotiating a deal under which Musharraf can avoid any further legal entanglements. Musharraf had been trying to stick it out, but his allies in the Parliament and the government have dried up.
This national crisis is as much about a personal grudge match as it is about leadership and the capability to thwart the Islamists who threaten the government and the region at every turn.
Musharraf had come to power in a coup that overthrew the government in 1999 then led by Sharif. Sharif has made it his mission to see the favor returned - including watching Musharraf thrown in prison. At the same time, you've got Benazir Bhutto's widow, Asif Ali Zardari, claiming that Musharraf was engaged in embezzlement and corruption, which happened to be the same charges that were lobbed against Zardari when he pretty much skimmed 10% on every contract that came across his desk.
The talk about the impeachment stems from Musharraf's decision to implement a state of emergency in 2007, which restricted rights, and his assault on the courts and the legal professionals.
There are several questions to consider in all of this (in no particular order):
1) What does this mean for the war on terror;
2) What does this mean for the Pakistani relationship with the US;
3) What does this mean for the Pakistani relationship with India; and
4) Who will retain control over the Pakistani nuclear arsenal.
Well, the Pakistanis have been schizophrenic on the subject of fighting the Islamists. Musharraf would alternate between appeasement and crackdown depending on how close the latest assassination attempt on his life got. The new government isn't likely to do much different. They'll do just enough to get by, and not much more.
The Pakistanis know that they get a lot of aid and trade from the US, and they'll do just enough to keep that aid flowing. They'll complain about airstrikes against al Qaeda and Taliban elements that cross into Afghanistan but they'll let those strikes continue. However, the ISI (Pakistani security) continues to be thoroughly compromised by Islamists, so breaking the Taliban/al Qaeda presence, including 157 terror camps, isn't likely to happen unless the government takes a far harder stand than they've been willing to do in the past. Given that Sharif and Zardari have been more accommodating and looking to engage in talks with the Taliban, expect the violence to continue.
Indeed, the spate of bombings and attacks continue, with a suicide bomber killing nine people in Lahore. The Pakistani security forces and military have repeatedly fought with the Taliban with mixed success.
India will continue to look nervously towards its common border with Pakistan and wonder what they'll do. The Line of Control hasn't been quiet, and there have been sporadic firefights, including one just today. Riots this past May in Kashmir haven't made relations between Muslims and Hindus any more friendly. India also blames Pakistan's ISI for the bombing of its embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan that killed more than 60 people.
The most troublesome question, however, is what will happen to Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. No one is quite sure who will maintain control and what kind of control protocols are in effect to prevent unauthorized access to the weapons or the nuclear components. It is possible that the Islamists would be able to get their hands on Pakistan's nuclear weapons program, which could spell bad news in the proliferation game - both to rogue regimes and to terrorists.
I suspect that any deal to unseat Musharraf will include provisions relating to the country's nuclear program. The US has faced this issue before, going back to 2007 when Musharraf imposed the state of emergency. The problems remain, and the US efforts in Afghanistan remain in peril.
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