Judgment Day For Israel's Leadership

Today, the Winograd Report on the government's failures during the Lebanon War will be released at 6 pm local time. What it should do if there was any justice in Israeli politics is force Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to step down and force new elections.

What it will do is provide sufficient excuses for Olmert to continue limping along in power while Israel's security continues to be undermined by ongoing negotiations with the Palestinian Authority's Abbas, who can barely control the territories already handed over to the Palestinians in Gaza or the West Bank.

Sure, there's talk of harsh judgments. But none will be passed on Olmert or his cabinet.

The committee is to present the full report to Olmert and Barak at 5 p.m. One hour later, panel chairman Eliahu Winograd will meet with journalists at the Jerusalem International Convention Center (Binyanei Ha'uma) and give a statement including the main points of the report and general comments on the work of the committee. Immediately afterward, committee member Ruth Gavison will present a summary of Winograd's address in English.

At the same time that the classified report is presented to Olmert and Barak, the committee will release a nonclassified version on www.vaadatwino.org.il [ed: sorry, but that's Hebrew only for now].

The committee has already made it clear it will not recommend imposing sanctions on anyone who played a key role during the period under examination. Assuming that this holds true, Olmert has already announced that he will not resign in the wake of the report.

In a hard-hitting interim report published on April 30, the panel focused on the years following Israel's unilateral withdrawal from southern Lebanon in March 2000 and on the first days of the Second Lebanon War, culminating in Olmert's address to the Knesset on July 17, 2006, where he set out the goals of the campaign. The interim report concentrated on the government's decision-making process during those days.

If you've been reading my blog for any length of time, you'd know that I put the failures to deal with the Hizbullah threat squarely on Olmert's shoulders because of his indecisiveness and failure to take aggressive offensive actions when the opportunties arose and instead fought to a stalemate with Hizbullah that was an effective victory for the Iranian and Syrian backed Islamist terrorist group.

His failures were compounded by the inadequate plans put forth by both Defense Minister Amir Peretz and IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz. Aussie Dave thinks Olmert is going to get off lightly compared to Peretz and Halutz. I agree. Both are going to play fall guy for Olmert, despite the fact that it was Olmert who signalled equivocation and timidity to Hizbullah by not fully pursuing Hizbullah and attacking along the Syria/Lebanon border where Hizbullah was firmly entrenched to break their supply lines. He might claim he was misled by rosy predictions by Peretz and Halutz, but he failed to show the slightest bit of resolve when it was proved that Hizbullah was seriously dug into South Lebanon and would take more time to dislodge.

The Israeli government's failure to counter the Hizbullah propaganda war was squarely on Livni and Olmert's shoulders.

UPDATE:
Let me clarify on one point. Halutz and Peretz were the fall guys. Halutz resigned just before the interim report was released last January and Peretz followed several weeks later after he lost Labor Party leader to Ehud Barak, who succeeded him as Defense Minister.

UPDATE:
Popular sentiment in Israel might be for Olmert and Barak to step down in the wake of the report, but popular sentiment plays but a small role in Israeli politics. Olmert will limp along. Barak will maintain his ministerial portfolio and stay in the government despite claiming that he would withdraw if the report slams Olmert.

UPDATE:
Carl in Jerusalem is live blogging the day's events.

UPDATE:
Michael Oren doesn't hold back on his withering criticism of Olmert and his failure of leadership during the war.

UPDATE:
Shilling for the terrorists to the end: The NYT reports the Winograd Commission publication, but throws in this last line - as though it's absolute fact:

The war also killed 1,200 in Lebanon, mostly civilians.

Say again? You know they're mostly civilians how? Because Hizbullah said so? That's about the only way you know how many people were killed in South Lebanon because Hizbullah controlled the access. The terrorists were not wearing uniforms. They were wearing civilian garb, so anyone who died could be considered a civilian unless they had a weapon in their hands.

It also ignores the economic toll on Israel as a result of Hizbullah initiating the conflict.