Pakistan In Cross Hairs

Al Qaeda and its Taliban sympathizers have been able to operate with impunity in Pakistan for far too long, and the Lal Masjid siege revealed just how damaging the appeasement efforts by Musharraf were. Allowing the Islamists a safe haven was anything but a safe choice for the Pakistani government, so we're now witnessing a buildup of forces to go after Warizistan and neighboring areas along the Afghan-Pakistani border. Al Qaeda's ability to reconstitute itself is due in large part to the ability to find safe haven in Pakistan. With friends like this, who needs enemies?

Pervez Musharraf is often touted as an important ally in the war on terrorism. With his strong control over the military, he has cracked down on Islamic militants operating in Waziristan and other parts of Pakistan.

Or so we’ve heard.

Fredrick Grare, in a new report from the Carnegie Center for International Peace, thinks that we’re being duped. He suggests that Musharraf is not so useful of an ally and that the billions of dollars of American aid since 9/11 have not been nearly as effective as many had thought.


While Pakistan may have cut ties with groups like al-Qaeda (more of a liability than an asset), Musharraf has been quite lenient with regional groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and the Taliban that are useful to his regional goals in Afghanistan and Kashmir. Put simply, maintaining ties to these local militant organizations helps Musharraf to check the power of India.

Pakistan and India have long been at odds with each other - both developing nuclear weapons programs to counter the other, have fought several wars since Pakistan broke off from India, and still look across at each other at the Line of Control in the disputed Kashmir region. That regional conflict serves as a backdrop for the geopolitical situation facing Musharraf in dealing with the Afghan-Pakistani border regions and al Qaeda and their Islamist allies there.

It would also appear that the US is accelerating its efforts to go after Taliban and al Qaeda both inside Afghanistan and Pakistan.

To the south of Swat in Mamoon, in Bajaur Agency of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, the situation is equally restive, but the focus of local militancy is directed across the border in Afghanistan against the foreign troops there.

Western intelligence believes that Osama bin Laden, his deputy Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar and other top al-Qaeda and Taliban leaders have free access in this region to meet and plan operations. Cross-border raids into Afghanistan are frequently staged from here.

The Bajaur area has been hit twice by Central Intelligence Agency predator drones, one specifically after Zawahiri. However, at a time when al-Qaeda is reactivated and the Taliban's main focus is to lay siege of Kabul, via adjacent Nooristan province in Afghanistan, aerial surveillance is considered insufficient.

As a result, a large US base is under construction on a mountaintop at Ghakhi Pass on the Pakistan-Afghanistan (Bajaur) border.

Militants believe this is in preparation for an operation inside Pakistan to clamp down on them as well as to renew the hunt for bin Laden and his associates. As a result, the militants have attacked the new base in an attempt to delay its construction.

Musharraf is also looking at imposing a state of emergency to deal with the ongoing violence and crackdown on the Islamists. Of course, he's also trying the carrot while waving the stick.

Arrests have been made in the latest assassination attempt on Musharraf. Five people were taken into custody for their involvement in trying to shoot down Musharraf's plane while taking off from a military airfield in Islamabad.

Gunmen had fired on Musharraf's aircraft using an old anti-aircraft gun after it took off from Chaklala military base on July 6 in Rawalpindi to visit flood-affected areas in Balochistan.

The army had earlier denied Musharraf's plane was the target.

Five people have been arrested in connection with firing shots at the plane of President General Pervez Musharraf earlier this month. ''The suspects are being questioned,'' the army's spokesman Major General Waheed Arshad said.

''I can not give any details about their identity and other details as the investigation are continuing. More details would be given after the investigations are completed,'' Arshad told the state-run television.

UPDATE:
The National Intelligence Estimate is out and Pakistan is in the cross hairs because of its policy towards the Warizistan/Afghan-Pakistani border regions. Al Qaeda and the Islamists have been able to use that safe haven to reconstitute itself, although its capabilities have been sigificantly degraded since 2001.

We assess that greatly increased worldwide counterterrorism efforts over the past five years have constrained the ability of al-Qa’ida to attack the US Homeland again and have led terrorist groups to perceive the Homeland as a harder target to strike than on 9/11. These measures have helped disrupt known plots against the United States since 9/11.

• We are concerned, however, that this level of international cooperation may wane as 9/11 becomes a more distant memory and perceptions of the threat diverge.

Al-Qa’ida is and will remain the most serious terrorist threat to the Homeland, as its central leadership continues to plan high-impact plots, while pushing others in extremist Sunni communities to mimic its efforts and to supplement its capabilities. We assess the group has protected or regenerated key elements of its Homeland attack capability, including: a safehaven in the Pakistan Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), operational lieutenants, and its top leadership. Although we have discovered only a handful of individuals in the United States with ties to al-Qa’ida senior leadership since 9/11, we judge that al-Qa’ida will intensify its efforts to put operatives here.

UPDATE:
At least seven people were murdered in a suicide bombing in Islamabad. The bombing occurred at the site where a rally was to take place. Among those scheduled to attend the rally was former Chief Justice Chaudhry, who was removed by Musharraf earlier this year. Caudhry had not yet arrived when the blast occurred.

It also seems that the Pakistani government had also withdrawn charges against Chaudhry just hours earlier.

The government yesterday withdrew an accusation of misconduct against former Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, who was suspended on March 9. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf had personally made the decision to remove the judge, causing uproar across the country and touching off demonstrations.

The government has not officially disclosed the accusations against Chaudhry, but newspapers have reported the main one appeared to be that he used his influence to help his son get a government job.

Musharraf probably decided to drop the charges to try and deal with one fewer crisis at a time. Ignore the petty corruption and nepotism at a time when there are bigger fish to fry.