Olmert Reportedly Considers Giving Up Golan In Deal With Syria

When I was in Israel in 1993, there were signs all over the country saying "Ha’Am Im Ha’Golan" or "The People are with the Golan." Everyone understood the tactical and strategic importance of the Golan. It is the primary water source for the Jordan River, the Kinneret (the Sea of Galilee), and its strategic overlook over Northern Israel provided Syrian gunners the ability to fire well into Israel from protected cover. Israel took the Golan in 1967, and defended the Heights in 1973 despite nearly being displaced by the Syrian attack on Yom Kippur.

So, what's changed since then? Syria still seeks to destabilize all of its neighbors - Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel. It still supports terrorist groups that seek Israel's destruction, and its leadership is implicated in the assassination of Lebanese leader Rafik Hariri. One of Syria's proxies, Hizbullah, launched a destructive war against Israel. Syria had no problem supplying Hizbullah with weapons across its border, nor does it have a problem supplying the insurgency in Iraq with weapons as well.

In other words, nothing has changed. And yet, Israeli Prime Minister Olmert is considering some kind of a withdrawal or change in status from the Golan? Israel has turned a major stretch of the Golan in to a National Park, vineyards in the region produce world-class wines, and the rest of the Golan is a series of demilitarized zones overseen by the UN. This situation has worked out satisfactorily since 1973, and Syria has shown little desire to make peace with any of its neighbors.

No wonder so many in the Knesset are downright pissed off at Olmert, who appears so weak that he's willing to consider the unthinkable to save his skin:

Effi Eitam (NU-NRP) said: "The Olmert government that failed in Lebanon, is behaving as failed regimes have acted throughout history, and in an attempt to hide his responsibility for the failure he is embarking on a dangerous political adventure."

Eitam's party colleague MK Zevulun Orlev said that Olmert was "ready to sell the Golan for his chair," adding that in his opinion, Olmert was attempting to save his skin by means of a declaration of his willingness to cede the Golan.

Likud faction chairman Gideon Sa'ar called on Israel Beiteinu and Shas to withdraw for the coalition.

"The prime minister has no legitimacy to withdraw for the Golan," Sa'ar went on to say, adding that Olmert's continued leadership endangered Israel's security, Israel Radio reported.

According to the report in Yediot, quoting officials close to Olmert, the prime minister sent messages with German and Turkish diplomats to Syrian President Bashar Assad indicating that Israel was willing to hold direct peace negotiations and give up the Golan.

According to Yediot, Olmert repeatedly said he would be prepared to negotiate with Syria only if Assad's regime cut ties with Iran and Hizbullah and ceased its support for terror.

US President George Bush gave Olmert the green light for negotiations with Syria in an hour-long phone conversation last month, according to the report, and the two leaders will further discuss the possibility of talks during their scheduled meeting at the White House on June 19.

Here's a most curious thing. Olmert's first concern is his own nation's national security, and while the US and Israel are close allies and consult with each other regularly, that President Bush would give a green light suggests that they think they might be able to cleave Syria from Iranian influence and money. Doing so would deprive Iran another front in a conflict with the West, and help stabilize the situation in Iraq, Lebanon and Northern Israel. That would be a very good thing, if Syria can be trusted.

I would posit that the Administration and Olmert's assumptions are flawed because of that assumption. There is no reason to believe that Syria can be trusted to cut its ties to Iran and eliminate its support of Hizbullah. The hardliners in Damascus are not going to stand for it, and we're talking about a dictatorship, where power rests in the hands of a few. If the hardliners don't like where Bashar is taking Syria, they'll overthrow him and the situation will remain just as it is now - or worse.

UPDATE:
And why would Israel willingly give up the buffer created by the Golan Heights knowing that Syria has purchased thousands of missiles from Russia?

The officials say the Syrian army is deployed along the Syrian side of the Golan Heights with strengthened forces after carrying out stepped-up training of troops the past few weeks. The officials noted the open movement of Syrian Scud missiles near the border with Israel and said Syria recently increased production of rockets and acquired missiles capable of hitting central Israeli population centers.

The Syrian army has improved its fortifications, according to the Israeli security officials, and has received modern, Russian-made anti-tank missiles similar to the ones that devastated Israeli tanks during the last Lebanon war, causing the highest number of Israeli troop casualties during the 34 days of military confrontations. Syria also received from Russia advanced anti-aircraft missiles.

The officials noted Syria stepped up the pace of weapons, including rockets, being shipped from the Syrian border to the Lebanese Hezbollah militia. Just yesterday, a truckload of weaponry meant for Hezbollah was confiscated by the Lebanese army.

Assad on a number of occasions the past few months has told his state-run media Damascus is preparing for war. He warned Israel to evacuate the Golan Heights.