Fading From Sight

At a time when UN officials are sighing with relief that Bolton is no longer there to bust the chops of corrupt officials and demanding reforms that might actually benefit millions of people around the world, the crisis in Lebanon has slipped off the front pages of media outlets. A powder keg is still there - and Hizbullah, Syria, and pro-Syrian Aounists are holding the matches if they don't get their way and bring down the Siniora government.

So what exactly is going on? Well, the various factions are trying to mediate the disputes, although there are new reports of violence.

Abu Kais notes that Hizbullah and pro-Syrians are intensifying their offensive against the government.

According to al-Seyassah, weapons are pouring into the country through the Syrian border, accompanied by terrorist groups run by Syrian intelligence. Fouad Siniora has been advised by world capitals to shut down the border with Syria to prevent a "catastrophe".

Thousands of Syrian reservists and hundreds of intelligence agents who were naturalized during the Syrian era have entered the country and re-organized themselves. According to a diplomat from the Gulf quoted by the Kuwaiti paper, weapons are being "distributed like candy" and Syrian intelligence has returned to posts it had evacuated in 2005.

Tens of trucks reportedly delivered explosives to Hizbullah warehouses in the southern suburb. Parking lots in Beirut, Tripoli, Sidon and Baalbeck have been transformed into workshops to booby-trap cars, in an apparent prepapring for a full scale civil war in the country. (If this is true, the Saudi King's warning that he will not let Lebanon turn into another Iraq suddenly makes sense). Al-Seyassah claimed that Hizbullah moved some of their rockets to Beirut for possible use against security forces protecting the Grand Serail.

Read that first quoted paragraph again. Lebanon is being told by various governments to close the border with Syria - but don't doubt for one moment that the Lebanese are capable of shutting the border, let alone interdicting those incoming weapons and equipment for Hizbullah. Israel was late to deal with the arms shipment threat and didn't take sufficient actions to close off the border, and UNIFIL doesn't lift a finger to ensure Lebanon's territorial integrity either. They wont interdict shipments, regardless of whether they know that arms are coming through the border.

Israel had the military force, but not the willpower. Its political leadership botched the operations against Hizbullah by too many half measures and telegraphing its operations giving Hizbullah space and time in which it could reorient its forces. The Lebanese government doesn't even have that luxury. It doesn't have time. Hizbullah continues to press its advantages.

But you know this isn't going to end well: not when you get diplomatic types like Germany's Foreign Minister who labors under the mistaken belief that Syria is the solution to Lebanon's woes. They think the Syrians should help stabilize the situation. Syria's idea of stabilization is flatlining Lebanon's legitimate government and installing its own. This despite the EU saying that they support Siniora's government.

Technorati: terrorism, nasrallah, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Abbas, Regev, Goldwasser, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, hezbollah, lebanon, syria.