The Perfect Storm Awaits

On the heels of my open letter to the Israelis about the deterioriating conditions along its borders and , Michael Totten warns about the potential for a resumption of hostilities that not only places UNIFIL troops in harms way, but the survival of Lebanon itself.

Once again, the country is bracing itself for sectarian war in the streets. Charles Malik says Christians may sit this one out for the first time in Lebanon’s history. Whatever fighting there may or may not be will likely involve Sunni and Shia.

If this isn’t gruesome enough, Syria and Iran have reportedly replenished all Hezbollah’s destroyed arsenal stocks. Hezbollah, according to the Times of London, now has more rockets than they had before the most recent Israeli invasion. If this is, in fact, true, UNIFIL ought to just go home right now. These foreign soldiers are useless except as human shields.

Israelis need a new Lebanon strategy. Now. But they are not likely to get one, at least not until Ehud Olmert takes his rightful place among the losers of Israeli prime ministers. He’s threatening to invade Lebanon again as early as this coming Spring. So far there is no talk whatsoever of doing anything to Hezbollah’s logistics hub in Syria. Hebollah is nothing but a protest and charity movement without its supply train from Tehran through Damascus.

Instead, Israel pinky swears to leave Bashar Assad alone even though he, more than anyone else, is responsible for turning Lebanon into an engine of chaos. The Israelis even phoned Bashar while bombing Beirut and the Bekka. They told him to sleep tight because he is not on their list. So of course he went and rigged up Round Two.

Meanwhile, the latest attempt at a unity government between Fatah and Hamas will hinge on the same problem that has dogged it from the outset. Hamas refuses to recognize Israel's right to exist. It doesn't matter who is named Prime Minister, whether it is Mohammed Shabir or anyone else for that matter, but if the Palestinians don't even recognize Israel's right to exist, there's no reason for Israel to negotiate or anyone to free up international aid for the Palestinians as such aid will not find its way to those Palestinians who need it, but instead go into the war chests of Fatah and Hamas militias.

Technorati: Mohammed Shabir, terrorism, nasrallah, fatah, Olmert, Abbas, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, hezbollah, lebanon, syria