Monday, November 13, 2006

Deal or No Deal

Has Hamas and Fatah finally agreed on a new government after months of squabbling, fighting, and inklings that a civil war may be in the offing?
The rival Fatah and Hamas movements on Monday agreed on a candidate for prime minister of their emerging coalition government, turning to a U.S.-educated professor to end months of infighting and help lift a painful international aid boycott.

The agreement was the strongest sign of progress in the negotiations, which have dragged on for months, but the government's acceptance by the United States and European Union _ both key aid donors _ could hinge on whether it will recognize Israel and renounce violence. Israel, like the United States, signaled a willingness Monday to talk to the Palestinian government if it moderates.

The compromise to make Mohammed Shabir prime minister was announced in Syria by Moussa Abu Marzouk, a top official in Hamas' exiled leadership. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas of Fatah also supports the nomination, aides said.

Hamas and Fatah are hopeful that the 60-year-old Shabir, a soft-spoken intellectual with a doctorate in microbiology from West Virginia University, will help persuade Israel and the West to lift economic sanctions imposed after the Hamas-led government took office in March.

The international community says the Palestinian government must renounce violence, accept previous peace deals and recognize Israel's right to exist _ conditions that Hamas repeatedly has rejected.

Shabir has never publicly voiced his positions on Israel, but colleagues describe him as pragmatic. Speaking to Israel's Haaretz daily, Shabir said he would act "realistically" if he is formally nominated.
The key to any deal that reopens aid to the Palestinians is whether Hamas will renounce violence and recognize Israel's right to exist, not simply the existence of Israel.

Shabir doesn't have any experience leading a government, let alone a bureaucracy that needs such serious reforms that Hercules might think twice about trying to clean up the mess - it makes the Augean Stables seem a petty task by comparison.

That his colleagues would consider his views on Israel to be pragmatic suggests that he would fit the Fatah mold of being content to destroy Israel in the long term and taking advantage of every deal without fulfilling the Palestinians' side of the deal.

That Hamas and Fatah are ready to agree on a candidate shows just how serious the cash crunch is for the Palestinians. They lack of funds is forcing their hand.

Allah notes the differences between Fatah and Hamas are a distinction without a difference. I'd note that the difference is a matter of tone.

What exactly is known about Shabir isn't exactly spelled out and the online offerings are slim to none. He's run Gaza's Islamic University, but not much else is known. The news reports are emphasizing that he's got the approval of both Fatah and Hamas and was US educated (as if that means anything).

I'll see if I can track down more, but it doesn't look promising.

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