The Conundrum, Part 33

What the heck is Olmert thinking by even floating the idea that Abu Mazen is a man with whom he can deal? Can Abbas (aka Abu Mazen) actually deliver on anything? That's far from clear considering that Hamas still controls much of the Palestinian Authority and would readily engage in a shooting war with Fatah if their power is undercut. Ed Morrissey has more, but I can't help but wonder whether the Israeli leaders have learned anything from the lessons of Ehud Barak. Barak went to Camp David and practically gave away the farm to Arafat, who promptly threw it all back in everyone's face without so much as a counteroffer. Olmert could produce the same exact deal, and that too would face the same exact result, except that he'd have multiple terror groups operating against Israel on multiple fronts instead of simply Fatah. Lunacy is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results.

Olmert is desperate for any kind of movement on the key issues facing Israel right now. There's no solution to the ongoing violence in Gaza and Gilad Shalit continues to be held by Hamas. Hamas has declared that there's no way Shalit is returned without a massive prisoner release, which are the same terms that have been in place since he was captured. Despite all the many iterations of deals in the works, they all boil down to a prisoner swap - one that heavily disfavors Israel.

Politically, Olmert's power is at ebb. There's little he can do to salvage his situation politically, and Hamas, Fatah, and Hizbullah are all preparing for the next round. Hizbullah's preparations come despite the fact that UNIFIL is supposed to be disarming them, but the UN has made it abundantly clear that they will not fulfill their terms of UN SCR 1701, and will do what is necessary to prevent Israel from protecting itself against that outcome.

There continue to be calls that the UN or some international body take control of Gaza. That is a real bad idea. As we're seeing in South Lebanon, unless any international organization dedicates itself to eliminating the weapons and terror groups/militias operating there, Israel's security will continue to be threatened. The Palestinians continue to get bailed out by an international community that repeatedly overlooks the violence inflicted by the Palestinians on the Israelis. Incessant and daily rocket attacks against Israel are overlooked. Random rocket fire lands on Sderot and other neighboring Israeli cities, but not so much as a hand is lifted in Israel's defense. When Israel responds against the terrorists firing those rockets, and misses, the world is outraged and makes claims of war crimes and other such blatherings.

Israel would not have to return fire if the Palestinians themselves did not engage in these attacks from within Gaza - a place that Israel withdrew from in its entirety in 2005. Within days, Hamas and Fatah turned Gaza into an armed camp, supplied with weapons smuggled in from across the Gaza/Egypt border. Since Israel was no longer policing the Philadelpi corridor, the smuggling accelerated. That's what the Palestinians have done since Israel left the Palestinians to their own devices.

The much maligned security fence between Israel and the territories has done a good job at preventing suicide bombers from entering Israel proper, but it does nothing to stop the rocket attacks. And Abbas can do little to stop those.

Meanwhile, is Haniyeh serious about stepping aside so that Hamas and Fatah can set up a unity government?

The prime minister, a senior leader of the Islamist group, told worshippers at a mosque in the Gaza Strip that Western powers did not want him to be part of the new administration.

"(They have) one condition, that the siege will not be lifted unless the prime minister is changed," Haniyeh said.

"When the issue is like this, the siege on one hand, the prime minister on the another ... I prefer the siege be lifted and the suffering ended."

It took him seven months to realize that refusing to recognize Israel as a key condition to receiving foreign aid is the hinge on which the continued existence of the Palestinian Authority rests. Does this mean that Meshaal's faction has succeeded in pushing Haniyeh aside?

But Hamas insists it will never recognize Israel or join a government that does, making it unclear how a unity cabinet could meet international demands to soften its line.

"There are no concessions," Haniyeh said.

While Haniyeh spoke of one condition, the United States and Israel have said the Palestinian government had to recognize the Jewish state, renounce violence and accept past peace deals.

Hamas, which advocates Israel's destruction, accuses the West of trying to topple its administration and giving it no chance to govern. The movement took office after trouncing the once-dominant Fatah in January elections.

Fatah seeks a negotiated peace with Israel.

But have no fear, Hamas has said that they would never recognize Israel's right to exist, so this really can be counted as rearranging deck chairs. And that last bit about Fatah is misleading. Fatah would like to negotiate Israel's destruction as they've come to realize that a military victory is unattainable. So, their strategy is to build up diplomatic victories until such time that they too can fulfill their own Charter (which calls for Israel's destruction).

Israel, meanwhile, has a new Deputy Defense Minister who wants more action and less talk. He's still answerable to Olmert, so that remains to be seen.

Technorati: terrorism, nasrallah, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Regev, Goldwasser, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, hezbollah, lebanon, syria.