News and Notes

Reports that suggested that Israel agreed to a prisoner swap to secure the release of Gilad Shalit turned out to be bogus. Go figure.

What changed that led Israeli officials to agree to a prisoner swap of any kind to get Shalit released? Israel had two months in Gaza to search and destroy terror infrastructure, but came up empty on finding Shalit. There was no change in either the Palestinians' demands, or Israel's refusal to deal, so news that a deal was done including a prisoner swap in excess of the demands made earlier made little sense.

Now, should there be a prisoner release, the Palestinians will claim victory in securing the release of more than 1,000 prisoners - all in exchange for Gilad. They suffered a heavy toll in terms of lost men and material destroyed when Israel put the screws to Hamas, Fatah, and PIJ in Gaza. Israel gets its soldier back, but at a heavy cost in prisoners, and future potential mayhem caused by yet more attacks designed to capture Israelis for other prisoner swaps.

Abbas confirms that a deal has been reached, but Israelis are denying it? Someone is trying to exert pressure on Israel to get them to release these prisoners. That someone would be the Palestinians, who launched a war against Israel that they could not win unless they were yet again saved from defeat by the UN.

So, who is providing these reports? It would appear to be a disinformation campaign being waged by the Palestinians to pressure Israel into accepting a deal that they would otherwise refuse.

Also, the Palestinians have issues among themselves. PA police were given permission by Abbas to break into the Palestinian Parliment buildings to demand wages be paid.

Thousands of rioting Palestinian policemen broke into the Palestinian Authority Parliament compound in Gaza on Tuesday.

The demonstration, one of several scheduled in various parts of the Gaza Strip, took place to protest against unpaid salaries and the failure of the Hamas government to improve the economic situation.

The demonstrators fired in the air and smashed windows.

The demonstration took place under the authorization of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas who, in the context of his efforts to undermine the Hamas government, gave permission for the demonstrations.

"This is a legitimate protest by the security forces because their members haven't received full salaries for the past six months," said one official prior to the protest. "They asked for permission to demonstrate and President Abbas, in his capacity as commander-in-chief of the Palestinian security forces, approved the request."

It's a legitimate protest because Abbas thought it a good idea for his security forces to riot and break into the Parliment building. Gotcha.

Meanwhile, Nasrallah says that Hizbullah will not give up its missile arsenal. So much for wishful thinking on the part of Annan and the UN diplomats who thought that signing UN SCR 1701 would secure peace in Lebanon without any enforcement of the provisions demanding the disarmament of all militias operating within Lebanon.

Lebanon wants to reassert its sovereignty over all its territory, but that is completely at odds with Hizbullah's refusal to disarm. Israel has absolutely no reason to trust the UN to enforce UN SCR 1701 in light of Annan's refusal to disarm Hizbullah by force, if necessary. The Lebanese are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Their inability to deal with Hizbullah over the past six years has cost them dearly.

Siniora's stand on the continuing air and sea blockade reflected outrage among Lebanese and an effort by the government to reassert its sovereignty after a month-long war during which Hezbollah, the militant Shiite Muslim movement, was making the country's vital decisions on war and peace. With its demand that foreign troops police the ports and border, Israel has prolonged a situation in which some of the most important government functions -- security and border controls -- are being assumed by others.

Hezbollah has told Siniora it will not oppose assignment of U.N. troops to help the Lebanese navy patrol offshore or to monitor Beirut's international airport and its once-busy seaport, according to a source involved in the negotiations. The likely solution to the standoff, the source said, is for Siniora to request help from U.N. peacekeepers, who are mandated to help the Lebanese army, and for Germany to lend its assistance under the U.N. aegis.

Some Lebanese officials suggested Siniora's government could fall from power unless the blockade is quickly lifted. Former Gen. Michel Aoun, a right-wing political figure, said last week that agitation for Siniora's departure would begin soon unless the government displays a surer hand in getting postwar rebuilding underway and imposing authority over Hezbollah.

And things are going to get a lot more interesting for Syria and Lebanon given that the investigator into the Rafik Harari assassination was nearly assassinated himself in Lebanon. Ed Morrissey has the details. Syria has much to account for in its meddling in Lebanon, and the Harari assassination was the straw that broke Syria's ability to overtly and openly affect Lebanon.

UPDATE:
Kofi hopes that the Israeli blockade will be lifted within the next 24-48 hours. And he is still deluded in thinking that Hizbullah will willingly give up its weapons stockpiles without a fight:

“I’m still hopeful that the air, land and sea blockade will be lifted within the next 36 to 48 hours,” Annan said at a news conference in the Turkish capital following a recent tour of the Mideast.


Annan called on Hizbullah guerillas in southern Lebanon to disarm and to devote themselves to political activities, and said Lebanon must take the initiative in disarming Hizbullah.

“There has to be a national consensus among the Lebanese to disarm” Hizbullah, Annan said. “The remaining ones should disarm and devote themselves to political activities.”

Annan also said use of force “is not the only means” in dealing with Hizbullah.

“I don’t think we need to insist in Lebanon that’s the only way to do it,” he said. “If we do move in that direction, then we are going to compound the problem.”

Hizbullah repeatedly has stated it will not give up its weapons, so unless the Lebanese decide to disarm Hizbullah by force if necessary, Hizbullah gets to keep its weapons and build up its reserves under the 'watchful eye of the UN.'

The Lebanese want to break the Israeli blockade as well, which makes sense since those speaking about breaking the Israeli blockade owe much to Hizbullah - and only Hizbullah benefits from the elimination of the blockade, not the Lebanese people. There's a reason that Israel doesn't want to let Hizbullah regroup and rearm, and apparently the UN and some Lebanese politicians oppose any action that might reduce or eliminate Hizbullah's potential for malice in Lebanon.

That's not to say that Lebanon can't try to work out a deal with Israel to lift the blockade, but that would have to include assurances that Lebanon will step up its interdiction of arms transfers to Hizbullah.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Regev, Goldwasser, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, hezbollah, lebanon, syria.