Middle East Roundup

Steve Erlanger notes that the situation in Gaza is dire, and indeed on the verge of collapse. Some are wising up to the fact that the situation is of their own making - by putting the thugs and terrorists in Hamas and Fatah in charge, the situation has gone from bad to worse.

Hamas and Fatah thugs roam the streets taking whatever they like. Police respond to a nascent riot over gas canisters for preparing food, and instead of facilitating the distribution, the police take it for themselves.

Gaza borders on anarchy, with Hamas more concerned about smuggling weapons than it does in providing food, shelter, health care, and other basic administrative functions. This is precisely who the Gazans voted for en masse. They have only themselves to blame, and it remains to be seen if they realize the error of their ways and choose a different path. I doubt it.

Amnesty International says that Hizbullah committed war crimes in its bombardments of Israel. That's not a surprise, but the fact that AI met with the terrorist organization to make its determination is troublesome. By their very existence, Hizbullah violates international law and its sole intent and purpose is the destruction of Israel and attacking Israeli civilians. AI can't get through a report on the region without stating that Israel also violated international law, but that's nothing but a crock as Legalbgl explored in an earlier column.

A UN mediator is expected to meet with Hizbullah next week to work towards the release of Goldwasser and Regev. Ed Morrissey writes of the growing sense in the Middle East that Hizbullah's war against Israel was a loser for Hizbullah, despite what Nasrallah says from his undisclosed location.

Haniyeh says that the US continues to undermine the Palestinian government in its calls to recognize Israel and renounce violence. Gee, why would Israel ever consider dealing with a group that considers the destruction of Israel to be its prime directive? Yet, Haniyeh and Abbas think that Israel should deal with them nonetheless.

If they even think that Israel should talk to them, Hamas should start by releasing Gilad Shalit unconditionally. No prisoner swaps. Nothing. Just release him.

Another terror attack was thwarted at Karni Crossing, which is a major entry point between Gaza and Israel and still more kassam rockets were fired into Israel, including at Sderot. Why would Israel want to deal with Hamas or Fatah when those terror groups' minions are still trying to carry out terror attacks against Israel.

Israel, meanwhile, has delayed the release of Hamas ministers who were arrested by the Israelis in the course of their operations in Gaza and West Bank.

The Danes are sending ships to assist in the patrolling of the waters off Lebanon. The UN is going to protest Israeli overflights of Lebanon. The US, meanwhile is freezing aid to Lebanon because of arms embargo breeches. The aid will be unfrozen once international forces are stationed along the Syria/Lebanon border.

The Israelis are also set to publish a report on the death of UN peacekeepers during the course of the war in Lebanon.

Then, there's the instance of the Arab Members of the Knesset who violated Israeli law by visiting Syria's Assad and were now in Lebanon claiming solidarity with the Lebanese who suffered from the war initiated by Hizbullah:

The party's MKs, Azmi Bishara, Jamal Zahalka and Wasil Taha, denied reports that they will meet Hizbullah members.

Attorney-General Menachem Mazuz ordered the police to interrogate the MKs about their visits to Syria and Lebanon upon their return to Israel.

Mazuz's deputy, Attorney Raz Nezri, dispatched a letter to the police intelligence unit demanding the MKs be questioned over illegal visits to enemy states.

Under Israeli law, Israeli nationals are forbidden from visiting enemy states, and offenders could face sentences of up to four years in jail.

Nezri noted that Israeli national could visit enemy states without committing an offense only with a special permit signed by the prime minister or the minister of the interior.

That was not done in this instance.

UPDATE:
Hizbullah categorically rejects Amnesty's findings that Hizbullah committed war crimes or otherwise violated international law. Well, of course they would. Never mind that Hizbullah invaded Israel, killing eight soldiers, capturing two, launched thousands of rockets, and purposefully targeted civilians in those attacks. They want you to focus on Israel's retaliatory strikes against them, which they want the world to believe caused only damage and destruction to civilians.

UPDATE:
Not so secret anymore. Abbas and Olmert met in a secret meeting in Jordan.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas met at a secret location in Jordan and came to an agreement over the release of captured IDF soldier Cpl. Gilad Shalit, the Arab-Israeli newspaper A-Sinra reported on Thursday.

The two were reportedly joined by the head of the Mossad and deputy head of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency).

Israel Radio reported that officials in the Prime Minister's Office denied the report.

Meanwhile, there's more news on the potential makeup of the so-called Palestinian unity government and the possibility of a prisoner swap for Shalit.

It is highly likely that Haniyeh will remain prime minister of the new government, which will include seven Hamas ministers and at least four from Fatah. Some portfolios will likely go to a third faction, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.

The Abbas-Haniyeh accords reportedly also included a clause that would allow a prisoner exchange between Israel and the PA to take place, whereby the Israeli soldier taken hostage on 25 January would be freed in exchange for the release by Israel of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including dozens of lawmakers and cabinet ministers recently taken hostage by Israel.

The conclusion of such a swap has so far been impeded by Israeli insistence that no direct link between the release of the imprisoned soldier and Palestinian prisoners be apparent. The reason for this intransigence, according to the Israeli press, is to enable the Olmert government to argue to an increasingly disenchanted Israeli public that it has not given in to "terrorists."

A decision by an Israeli military judge on Tuesday to release 21 Palestinian officials, including three cabinet ministers and the speaker of the Palestinian parliament, may very well be an important facilitating factor towards a possible prisoner exchange deal. The Tuesday decision reinforces arguments by Palestinians and human rights organisations that the detained Palestinians were abducted solely to be used as a bargaining chip.

Not only would Hamas and Fatah be represented in the unity government, but it appears likely that so would the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (note that the terrorist group has killed Americans in the past).

This is a bad deal any way you look at it, which probably explains the lengths to which Olmert is trying to distance any kind of prisoner release from Shalit's release.

When is unconditional release not unconditional?

When you're releasing Hamas ministers in the hope to get Fatah and Hamas to reciprocate with the release of Shalit.

If these deals do go through (and that's far from a certainty), we'll be in roughly the same position we were before Shalit was taken. The IDF will have gone through Gaza, killed a bunch of terrorists, damaged some infrastructure, and incurred losses. Palestinians will claim victory (they always do, even when bloodied to a pulp) despite an economy in shambles, the terrorist infrastructure decimated, and Gazans in worse shape now than before they started this latest war.

Meanwhile, the Saudis say that the Arab plan is the only way to peace. Of course, Israel would be in pieces, but that doesn't matter.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Regev, Goldwasser, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, hezbollah, lebanon, syria.