The Conundrum, Part 3

Egypt is trying quite hard to play kingmaker, and their gambit relies on a two-stage prisoner swap. This is what I've been warning against for some time now. Hamas and Egypt are trying to get Israel to agree to some kind of prisoner swap without making it appear that Israel is agreeing to a swap. That's why they're going to obfuscate the swap by doing it in stages.

Israel's military has to do some serious thinking on how to rectify problems that arose during the war in Lebanon. How was it that the IAF had current intel, but the IDF and the soldiers on the ground had intel dated only from 2000. That's a big failure, and one that needs to be addressed post-haste.

Haniyeh's guards open fire on a crowd of Palestinian workers protesting that they have not received their wages for months on end. Hamas couldn't care less about such things; they have a war of annihilation to run. It's just the cost of doing business with Hamas.

Meanwhile, the Israelis neutralized two kassam rocket launchers in Gaza and they've arrested 10 suspected Palestinian terrorists. The IDF also notes that a Hizbullah UAV that was shot down was apparently sent to target Tel Aviv, and carried several kilos of explosives and ball bearings.

A senior IDF officer said on Monday that "the drone which was launched by Hizbullah during the war in Lebanon, and which was shot down in the area of Haifa, was intended to strike the Gush Dan region," Army Radio reported.

"We found in wings of the drone 10 kilograms of explosives, with ball-bearings packed inside," the officer said. "We are talking here about a very accurate machine. In the past there have been attempts by Hizbullah to infiltrate Israeli airspace with drones fitted with video cameras, but never drones armed with explosives."

The UN reiterates that it will not disarm Hizbullah. So much for the terms of UN SCR 1701, which like UN SCR 425, 426, and 1559 call for the disarmament of all militias operating in Lebanon to secure Lebanon's territorial integrity. It speaks volumes as to the integrity of the UN. It's funny that Chirac wants UN SCR 1701 enforced, but isn't willing to put his troops in a position where they actually have to disarm Hizbullah. Sound and fury signifying nothing.

Israeli officials are concerned that terrorists might attempt attacks during the Jewish High Holy Days, which start this coming weekend, but do not have any specific threat warnings.

UPDATE:
The Egyptian Foreign Ministry seems to think that a deal on Shalit is going to happen soon. Prisoner swap, here we come. Abbas and Israeli FM Livni have met in New York. The US is trying to back Abu Mazen (aka Abbas) and the other moderates over Hamas and the lunatic fringe of Palestinian terror groups.

Sec. State Rice also met with Livni, and among the topics discussed were Iran and a resumption of a peace process between Palestinians and Israel. However, no linkage of the two issues was made.

Livni's going to have a busy few days:

Livni and Rice agreed to coordinate positions in advance of a diplomatic initiative that the Arab League is expected to present to the UN Security Council on Thursday. Livni also reiterated in the meeting, according to her spokesman, that the release of abducted IDF soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser was a necessary condition for the implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

A few hours prior to her meeting with Abbas, Livni said it was important for Israel to hear directly from him whether he thought there was a realistic possibility of establishing a PA unity government, and whether it would accept the benchmarks.

Livni also met on Monday with Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit, and with leaders from Argentina, Mauritania, Finland, Latvia and South Korea.

On Tuesday she is slated to meet with the presidents of South Africa and Ghana, as well as the foreign ministers of Qatar, China, the Netherlands, Australia, Canada, Sweden, Britain and Pacific island nations, which traditionally support Israel at the UN. Thirty minutes have been allotted for each of these meetings.

Meanwhile, Al Qaeda is threatening Eilat with attacks, and Israeli officials think that al Qaeda cells are operating in and around the area. That would mean cells operating in Egypt and Jordan.

The Israelis demolished a building in Southern Gaza that happened to have a smuggling tunnel therein. The tunnel was being used to smuggle weapons. Oh, and the IDF was nice enough to warn the neighbors to evacuate before taking action. One has to wonder who was behind the smuggling tunnel.

Fatah wants early elections. So soon after their so-called unity government was formed? That can't be good for morale. Or maybe they think that they'll pick up seats because Hamas has done such a good job.

Technorati: terrorism, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Regev, Goldwasser, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, hezbollah, lebanon, syria.