Wednesday, August 30, 2006

Former President Carter Tries Diplomacy With Iran Again

As though the last time he attempted diplomacy with Iran worked out so well? Back in 1979, while Carter was in office, the Iranians invaded the US Embassy in Tehran and proceeded to hold 52 US diplomats and personnel hostage for 440 days - and were released as President Reagan took office.

Carter failed to secure the release of those hostages, and launched a half-hearted military operation to rescue them. His dithering and inability to secure the release of the hostages doomed his bid to win reelection in 1980.

Since then, he's inserted himself into international diplomacy on several occasions, and has done absolutely nothing to distinguish himself in a good way. His 1994 Agreed Framework deal with North Korea was a disaster- North Korea proceeded to obtain nuclear weapons despite their promise not to do so. With a wink and a nod, North Korea went on paying lip service to an agreement that they abrogated from the outset. Carter's love affair with despots and dictators doesn't end there, having rubber stamped elections in Venezuela and approving the conduct of the Palestinians despite their continued war against Israel and utter refusal to accept the state of Israel.

So, it shouldn't come as a surprise that Carter is again trying his hand at diplomacy with Iran. And you can bet that the outcome will be no different than the last time.

Blue Crab Boulevard wonders how Carter is actually able to try and negotiate diplomatic deals despite not being office for more than 20 years. Considering that the Iranians approached him shows the level of disdain that they hold Carter, and that they figure they can use Carter for their own purposes. The Iranians think that they could manipulate Carter just as easily as the North Koreans did in 1994, and the Iranians before that.

Ed Morrissey notes that while Carter is free to meet with whoever he sees fit, if Carter tries to inflict his views and positions on the US government, enforcement of the Logan Act awaits.

War and Peace notes that Carter's meeting wasn't objected to by the Administration. One possibility is that the Administration may be trying a back channels approach using Carter as the middleman, but I think they may simply be trying to get a better read on the mad mullahs. There is a huge lack of humint coming out of Iran and other totalitarian regimes, so getting any kind of intel from diplomatic or pseudodiplomatic encounters is crucial to forming opinions on intents, means, and capabilities. That may be the case here.

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