Analyzing the US-Iranian Diplomatic Posturing

Iran says no deal to US conditions on talks to begin talking. It's not a surprise really that Iran is rejecting talks and considers them to be nothing more than propaganda by the US.

Iran has no need for diplomatic action at this time unless it feels that it needs time for its weapons program scientists to work out the problems that they appear to be having with the gas centrifuges. There's no reason for the Iranians to stop their current enrichment activities. Iran's also preparing a fallback position - preparing against a potential invasion.

All this leads one to wonder why the US is even considering talks on Iran. No matter what the hard left seems to think about diplomacy, letting Iran go forward with a weapons program is the worst possible outcome. Diplomacy worked out so well when former President Carter negotiated the Agreed Framework with North Korea and the North Koreans simply proceeded to continue their weapons programs unabated all while reaping the benefits of the Agreement. There's no reason to believe that Iran would behave any differently.

Austin Bay notes the obvious:

The US offer isn’t propaganda per se, but a savvy diplomatic dance-step. Why isn’t it propaganda? The US would talk to Iran if the US pre-condition is met. In all probability, the US pre-condition (that Tehran essentially stop illegal nuclear activities) is a pre-condition Tehran will never accept. The US statement shifts the spotlight from Iran’s demand that the US participate in talks back to the key issue: Iran’s outlaw nuclear program. Nice pirouette.

The US is also dancing with “the EU-3″ (Britain, Germany, and France) and “the Security Council Two” (China and Russia). The EU-3 seem to think the US needs to demonstrate a willingness to talk to Iran. The new American proposal does that, and removes (or at least hampers) a Euro-appeasenik talking point, ie, “the failed negotiations are America’s fault because America failed to participate.”

In other words, the US statements on Iran are designed to frame the issue and show Iran for what it is - a threat to regional and worldwide security due to its insistence on a nuclear weapons program. It also pays lip service to those who claim that the US needs to engage in diplomacy in a greater way than it has done til now. Funny, but when the US lets other countries attempt diplomacy, the Administration is blasted for not being engaged in the issue, but when the Administration takes the lead, it's considered a cowboy move and that we have to allign ourselves closer to the European position (duck, cover, and pray being the closest approximation).