Dueling Statistics

USA Today:

Two of every three eligible soldiers continue to re-enlist, putting the Army, which has endured most of the fighting in Iraq, ahead of its annual goal.
The Army was 15% ahead of its re-enlistment goal of 34,668 for the first six months of fiscal year 2006, which ended March 31. More than 39,900 soldiers had re-enlisted, according to figures scheduled to be released today by the Army.

Strong retention has helped the Army offset recruiting that has failed to meet its targets as the war in Iraq has made it harder to attract new soldiers. The Army fell 8% short of its goal of recruiting 80,000 soldiers in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30, although it is exceeding its goal this year. Army recruiting figures for the first half of the year are to be released today.

New York Times:

Young Army officers, including growing numbers of captains who leave as soon as their initial commitment is fulfilled, are bailing out of active-duty service at rates that have alarmed senior officers. Last year, more than a third of the West Point class of 2000 left active duty at the earliest possible moment, after completing their five-year obligation.

It was the second year in a row of worsening retention numbers, apparently marking the end of a burst of patriotic fervor during which junior officers chose continued military service at unusually high rates.

Mirroring the problem among West Pointers, graduates of reserve officer training programs at universities are also increasingly leaving the service at the end of the four-year stint in uniform that follows their commissioning.

Of course, there is a different focus in the New York Times than the USA Today piece. The New York Times focuses on the fact that the retention rates are worse now than they were in 2001, but that disregards the fact that the rate is still lower than it was during the late 1990s, when the US was not at war - as per the graph and statistics provided by the NYT accompanying the article and found at paragraphs 11 through 13.

So, far from the fact that the military is suffering from retention problems, the situation is still far better than it was before 9/11, and some of the rise can and should be attributed to a better economy in the US where people are enticed by better jobs, a more stable economy, and that the stress of war on some is too much to reenlist.

Ranting Profs wants to know what's missing from their interpretation of the statistics provided by the NYT. Good question. Any way we can get statistics for the period of 1990 through 2000 for additional comparative purposes? John Cole urges caution and that the numbers do suggest that there is a problem here that needs to be addressed. Agreed. It is something to watch, though a more complete picture of how the military is retaining soldiers is needed. Power Line notes that the retention rate is 15% ahead of where the Army expected to be for the first half of FY2006.

It's always curious to watch folks spin statistics for their own purposes. Instead of actually shedding light on the military, the statistics are being used in agenda spinning. Expect the usual suspects in Congress (here's looking at you Rep. John Murtha) to come out with statements later this week claiming that the military is broken and that the troops have to come home.

UPDATE:
See Suitably Flip's coverage of John Murtha's appearance at a NYC town hall meeting led by Rep. Carolyn Maloney. As bad as Murtha's comments were, the crowd was even more stridently anti-war than Murtha. Yet, Murtha ran with bogus numbers as well.