Marriage Equality Act Will Pass In New York; IF It's Ever Brought To a Floor Vote

This is where things stand with the Marriage Equality Act (gay marriage) proposal in New York. Everyone recognizes that if the bill is brought to a floor vote in the State Senate, it would pass - and Gov. Andrew Cuomo would sign it into law, making New York the sixth (and by far the most important) state to do so.

The problem is that it's still mired in procedural actions and haggling over various terms, and it's stuck with other proposals including a property tax cap and mandate relief that the Legislature has yet to address. The Senate Republicans are caught between a rock and hard place:

As soon as today, the New York Senate’s majority party could decide whether to duck out of Albany without voting on same-sex marriage or risk allowing a vote.

If there’s a vote, all it would take is one more Republican to vote yes, and same-sex marriage will become legal — something sure to anger the GOP’s conservative wing and expose Republican senators to primary election challenges next year.

But walking away from the issue without a vote could prove the riskier political strategy as the nation waits to see whether New York becomes the sixth and largest state to sanction same-sex marriage.

Thursday, the Senate adjourned for the night at 11 p.m. without even talking about same-sex marriage. Senators will resume work today, but it remains unclear whether they will vote on the issue. Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos has not agreed to allow a vote.

The Senate's Republican majority is scheduled to meet behind closed doors at 10 a.m. today then go into open session.

But a backlog of other more ordinary yet important bills for New Yorkers must be dealt with first.

Once those bills are passed, the Senate Republicans could start what would likely be a lengthy debate over the gay marriage bill in a closed-door caucus. They could then send the bill to the floor, or kill it.

No vote would unleash a continual stream of questions and backlash from gay rights advocates, Democrats, and national and local media that could linger through campaigns in 2012, a presidential election year.

Avoiding the vote would fly in the face of a popular governor who has made gay marriage a core agenda item. The Republican senators could count on the same issue waiting for them in Albany next January, when the Legislature re-convenes.

“Whether it’s this year or next year, at some point it’ll go on the floor,” said Sen. John DeFrancisco, R-Syracuse, who opposes same-sex marriage but is open to allowing a vote.

Senators, especially those opposing same-sex marriage, get the conundrum. That explains why they are working to amend legislation they may ultimately vote against.

“I think the best case scenario for us is to have an up or down vote and move on to our core issues, jobs and taxes,” said Sen. Greg Ball, a Republican from Putnam County who has spent days working to insert more religious protections into a bill already passed last week by the Assembly.

If the Republicans, who control the Senate punt this year, it will come back at them with a vengeance next year during a Presidential election season, and their thin majority in the Senate could be at risk. That's why getting this off their plate makes sense as it would let them deal with other pressing issues, including mandate relief.

This should have been included in the "framework" agreement between the Legislature and Gov. Cuomo (aka 3 men in a room - Gov. Cuomo, Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos, and Speaker Shelly Silver), but it wasn't. That was a mistake on Skelos' part although he has to keep his caucus in line on the other issues.

So, while the legislature could potentially end its session today, it has to deal with several important outstanding bills, including the gay marriage bill and we could be looking at a marathon session once again before the weekend. Either that, or the legislature will be back next week to pass what is still left on the calendar.

Developing: Espada Flips Back To Democrats; GOP Loses Senate Control

This is a developing situation, but State Senator Pedro Espada has flipped back to the Democrats, giving them the numbers to control the State Senate.

Espada, whose defection to the Republicans was the main reason for Gov. Paterson's controversial action yesterday "naming" Richard Ravitch as lieutenant governor, revealed his startling plans to The Post.

The defection would bring a quick end to the Senate's current 31-31 vote stalemate, in which Espada has repeatedly joined with the 30 Republican members in opposition to the Democrats.

"I'm going to tell (Republican leader Sen.) Dean Skelos that I have a handshake agreement with (Democratic leader Sen.) John Sampson to become the majority leader,'' Espada revealed.

Espada, who had been designated as the Senate president by a bare majority vote during the June 8 "coup'' in which he and Sen. Hiram Monserrate (D-Queens) joined 30 Democrats to oust Democratic Majority Leader and Senate President Malcolm Smith of Queens, said that Smith would retain his "president'' title under the arrangement until the end of the year.

Smith would then be replaced by Democratic Sen. John Sampson of Brooklyn, who ousted Smith as the top Democratic leader in the wake of the "coup.''

Espada said, "Unfortunately, Dean rejected an opportunity to reach a compromise under which Republicans would have had equal access to all the resources of the Senate.''

It was never about doing what was right. It was about Espada playing politics and pushing his weight around. He wanted to play kingmaker because Malcolm Smith hurt his feelings over not supporting some of Espada's pork projects.

State taxpayers suffer as a result.

This is the clown circus in action.

Court Rules Democrats Republicans In Charge Of New York State Senate

You have got to be kidding me.

Democrats went to court to challenge the coalition, which included two dissident Democrats, that claims it seized control of the 62-member chamber on Monday.

The GOP announced Monday afternoon that Pedro Espada Jr. (D-Bronx) and Hiram Monserrate (D-Queens) had jumped ship and decided to caucus with Republicans.

The move gave the GOP a slim 32-20 majority, although Democrats said they would bring the matter to court.

A state Supreme Court judge in Rensselaer County heard initial arguments and rendered a decision this morning, according to Republicans.

There's no word on the grounds for which this judge ruled, but I have no doubt that the Democrats forum shopped until they found a judge with a preference for putting the Democrats back into power in the State Senate. Democrats sought an injunction from State Supreme Court Justice George B. Ceresia (the trial court level in NY is called the Supreme Court).

Ceresia received a phone call last night at 10 p.m. asking for the emergency hearing, which he conducted with lawyers for Smith and Sen. Pedro Espada, a Democrat who on Monday joined Sen. Hiram Monserrate and the 30 members of the chamber's Republican conference to engineer a takeover.

Andrew Celli, representing Smith, said the senator was elected to a two-year term as leader in January. He said no resolution was made in committee to replace him, nor did senators make a "privileged" request.

"There is no vacancy. Senator Smith remains the temporary president," Celli said. He referred to the opposition as "Sen. Espada and his confederates."

Celli also told the judge that Sen. Neil Breslin, the Democrat who was presiding over the Senate at the time of the coup, said Republican Sen. Tom Libous was out of order when Libous called for a change in leadership on the Senate floor. He said Libous never tried to challenge Breslin's statment.

John Ciampoli, a lawyer for Espada, told the judge that the majority of the Senate voted for the change in leadership, adding "What Malcolm Smith is asking you to do is step in and substitute yourself for the 32 senators who represent the majority of the Senate."

Republicans vow to appeal, and the Appellate Division for the Third Department will take up the case next.

Stay tuned.

This clown circus isn't over by a long shot.

UPDATE:
It appears the NY Post report was incorrect (hat tip: anonymous emailer), and the judge ruled in favor of the GOP, which went into session.

A state judge refused to block leaders of a Republican-led coalition from taking over the Senate Thursday.

The new majority immediately went into session without the Democrats - except for the two who joined the coup.

Supreme Court Justice George Ceresia rejected a request from Democrats to delay the takeover - but agreed to hear more arguments.

Republicans argued that if Ceresia halts the Senate session, the judicial branch would be inappropriately meddling with the legislative branch.

Shortly before 11 a.m., apparent Majority Leader Dean Skelos walked through a crush of media and protestors, took out a key and unlocked the Senate doors that have been sealed since Mondays leadership coup.

Expect the Democrats to appeal.

The judge correctly noted that this was a political question, and refused to address it.

What a mess.

UPDATE:
More fodder for discussion. Monserrate is blocking any further business at the moment because he's choosing not to. Meanwhile, State Senator John Sampson (an Albany Law alum) may replace Malcolm Smith as Democratic Leader (Majority or Minority, depending on how things go) because of Smith's incompetence.

Democratic Insurrectionists Wrest Control Of NY State Senate From Democrat Control

The New York State Senate is back in the hands of Republicans.

Minority Leader Dean Skelos, R-Rockville Center, was returned to the position of majority leader, the post he held until Democrats took control of the chamber after the November election.

Ordinarily, the majority leader and the Senate president positions are usually held by the same person, but Espada and Skelos are dividing the duties as part of their deal to take over the Senate leadership.

Espada, D-Bronx, who returned to Albany in January after a hiatus, said he is a voice for reform Democrats and that more reformers will be joining his lead. He and Sen. Hiram Monserrate of Queens joined the 30 Senate Republicans to remove all leadership put into place at the start of year when Sen. Malcolm Smith became the majority leader.

Led by an aggressive push by Sen. Thomas Libous, R-Binghamton, Republicans forced a resolution that resulted in the vote of Espada as temporary president for the rest of this year. Skelos was also named the vice president.

The Capitol was turned upside down by the move which ends the Democrats' six-month tenure as leaders of the Senate.

"I am a Democrat and I am in charge," said Espada who said he could not sit tight and allow Smith to lead the Senate. "We have been in a quagmire since Jan 7."

The plot to overthrow Smith was supported by Rochester billionaire Thomas Golisano, a three-time gubernatorial candidate and backer of several Senate candidates.

Libous was able to install Sen. George Winner, R-Elmira, to oversee the proceedings. He replaced Sen. Neil Breslin, D-Bethlehem, who had been officiating the Senate when Libous raised his surprise leadership resolution. Breslin was taken aback and had a hard time responding to the hand vote of 32 senators calling for a leadership change.

Eventually, Breslin recognized the vote and left with lawyer Keith St. John so that Republican lawyer Jack Casey and Winner could take the stage. After Espada and Skelos were sworn in, Libous won another resolution to restructure the powerful Rules Committee and cancel all chairmanships and committee appointments.

This is one of the more surprising events to occur in Albany in a long time, and that's saying something. Two Democrats, annoyed with the way that Senate Democrats have run things since they gained control of the chamber in January.

If the name Hiram Monserrate sounds familiar, it's because he was indicted on assaulting his girlfriend earlier this year and has been accused of similar acts in the past. Pedro Espada and Dean Skelos will be in a power sharing arrangement through the end of the year, but don't expect Senate Democrats to sit back and accept this situation.

In any event, consider this Tom Golisano's parting shot to state politics. He's already declared that he's leaving New York for a more tax friendly Florida, but he's financed candidates around the state. We'll see what the Democrats have in mind to combat this changed circumstance.