A blog for all seasons; A blog for one; A blog for all. As the 11th most informative blog on the planet, I have a seared memory of throwing my Time 2006 Man of the Year Award over the railing at Time Warner Center.
Justice. Only Justice Shall Thou Pursue
The exercise will include sending the aircraft carrier George Washington and a number of accompanying ships into the region, both to deter further attacks by the North and to signal to China that unless it reins in its unruly ally it will see an even larger American presence in the vicinity.
The decision came after Mr. Obama attended the end of an emergency session in the White House Situation Room and then emerged to call President Lee Myung-bak of South Korea to express American solidarity and talk about a coordinated response.
But as a former national security official who dealt frequently with North Korea in the Bush administration, Victor Cha, said just a few hours before the attack began, North Korea is “the land of lousy options.”
Mr. Obama is once again forced to choose among unpalatable choices: responding with verbal condemnations and a modest tightening of sanctions, which has done little to halt new attacks; starting military exercises that are largely symbolic; or reacting strongly, which could risk a broad war in which South Korea’s capital, Seoul, would be the first target.
The decision to send the aircraft carrier came as the South Korean military went into what it termed “crisis status.” President Lee said he would order strikes on a North Korean base if there were indications of new attacks.
North Korea’s artillery shells fell on Yeonpyeong Island, a fishing village whose residents fled by ferry to the mainland city of Inchon — where Gen. Douglas MacArthur’s troops landed 60 years ago this fall, three months after the outbreak of the Korean War.
The diplomats will try everything imaginable to keep the situation from escalating, but that may be precisely what the North Korean regime is banking on. They will use the opportunity to attempt to wrest more concessions from the South and Party of Six, or at a minimum stall any additional efforts to contain the North's nuclear ambitions.
South Korean artillery units returned fire after the North’s shells struck South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island at 2:34 p.m., said Mr. Kwon, adding that the North also fired numerous rounds into the Yellow Sea. Television footage showed large plumes of black smoke spiraling from the island, and news reports said dozens of houses were on fire.
The official North Korean news agency said in a brief statement Tuesday night that the South had started the fight when it “recklessly fired into our sea area.”
The South Korean deputy minister of defense, Lee Yong-geul, acknowledged that artillery units had been firing test shots on Tuesday afternoon close to the North Korean coast, from a battery on the South Korean island of Paeknyeongdo. But he denied Pyongyang’s charge that the shots had crossed the sea border.While skirmishes between the two countries have not been uncommon in recent years, the clash appeared to have been the most serious in decades and came amid heightened tensions over the North’s nuclear program. An American nuclear scientist who recently visited the North said he had been shown a secret and modern enrichment facility.
A spokesman for President Lee Myung-bak said Mr. Lee gathered his security-related ministers and senior aides at a crisis meeting in the underground situation room at the Blue House, the presidential office and residence.
“We will not in any way tolerate this,” Mr. Lee’s chief spokesman, Hong Sang-pyo, said after the meeting. “Any further provocation will get an immediate and strong response and the South Korean military will strongly retaliate if there is anything further.”
The North continues testing the patience of the South and seeing what it can get away with ahead of ongoing talks to curb the North's nuclear ambitions.
UPDATE:
South Korea's President Lee Myung-bak called for "enormous retaliation" against the North and consider this an act of war - the invasion of South Korean territory.
Hours after North Korea's deadly artillery attacks Tuesday, South Korea's president said "enormous retaliation" is needed to stop Pyongyang's incitement, but international diplomats urgently appealed for restraint.
"The provocation this time can be regarded as an invasion of South Korean territory," President Lee Myung-bak said at the headquarters of the Joint Chiefs of Staff here, according to South Korea's Yonhap news agency.
He's under tremendous pressure militarily and politically to respond with force, but I expect the diplomats to cool things down. That will make it tougher for the South Korean president politically, but will avert a wider conflict for now.
Of course, that very aversion to war means that the North will see this as yet another sign that their strategy of provocation works and will continue pressing their luck until the South does eventually respond.
As it is, the two sides exchanged artillery fire for several hours after the North began firing on the island. We're lucky that the fighting didn't spread to other sectors along the DMZ. It's little wonder that the international markets got spooked by the news and the news focus is on the crisis on the Korean peninsula.
For further news, check out the ongoing blog coverage at memeorandum. There is some musings that the attack was an indication of the power transfer from Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un - using the incident as a prelude to consolidating power, but I don't think that we would see any concrete transfer until after Jong Il is dead. Moreover, if this was truly the reason for the incident, then Jong Un is just as mad as his father and grandfather before him.
UPDATE:
Still more video showing the North Koreans firing on civilian areas. At least 60 homes were damages in the artillery barrage:
