Saturday, June 13, 2009

Ahmadinejad Declared Winner In Iranian Elections; Obama Administration Suspects Fraud

Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose anti-Semitic rantings and genocidal rhetoric should have sounded alarms the world over, has been declared the winner of the elections held yesterday.

It should come as no surprise.

Yet, the Obama Administration suspects that fraud played a role. Really.
U.S. officials are casting doubt over the results of Iran's election, in which the government declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner Saturday.

U.S. analysts find it "not credible" that challenger Mir Hossein Mousavi would have lost the balloting in his hometown or that a third candidate, Mehdi Karoubi, would have received less than 1 percent of the total vote, a senior U.S. officials told FOX News.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khameini apparently has released a statement calling the results "final" and hailing the election as a legitimization of the regime and its elections.

Turnout appears to have reached 82 percent, an all-time high. But when asked if the turnout figures should be considered suspect, given the "not credible" counts for Mousavi and Karoubi, the official said: "Oh, it has to be [considered suspect]."

There are already reports of violence outside Mousavi's campaign headquarters, and of huge demonstrations for both sides in central Tehran, with Mousavi trying to make his way to the one in his behalf. Even if widespread violence occurs, analysts see no prospect that this event would lead to a full-scale attempt at revolution or the toppling of the regime.
There's no reason to suspect that to be case since the candidates were approved by the mullahs and if they didn't think the candidates were sufficient, they wouldn't be on the ballot in the first place.

The mullahs allow these elections to go forward as a way to maintain their own power, and to think otherwise is naive. Ahmadinejad speaks on behalf of these mullahs, and they want to continue with their nuclear program and missile technologies, and don't mind Ahmadinejad's genocidal rhetoric.

As for the demonstrations, they wont amount to much since the regime maintains a tight grasp on power.

UPDATE:
There are clashes being reported between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi's supporters, and between Mousavi's supporters and riot police. Mousavi's supporters are claiming election fraud, and have taken to the streets, but the government says that Ahmadinejad was the winner of the elections.
Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli, who supervised the elections and heads the nation's police forces warned people not to join any "unauthorized gatherings" as he gave detailed results for the elections.

"If there are gatherings in some places, people should not join them," he scandidates."

He added that in Tehran itself, Mousavi won more votes than the incumbent.

Overall, however, Mousavi only took 33.75 percent of the vote in a contest that was widely perceived to be much closer than the official results.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has final say on all state matters, thanked the people for their record 85 percent participation and warned opposition candidates to "avoid provocative behavior."

"I assume that enemies intend to eliminate the sweetness of the election with their hostile provocation," he said in his televised address.

He called the results a "divine assessment" and called on all the candidates to support the president.

Nationwide, the text messaging system remained down Saturday and several pro-Mousavi Web sites were blocked or difficult to access. Text messaging is frequently used by many Iranians - especially young Mousavi supporters - to spread election news and organize.
The government controls the means of communications, so they're doing all they can to limit the possibility of an outcome that the mullahs didn't preordain. The fix was always in, and has been for all the elections during the 30 years of mullahocracy rule.

What people don't quite understand is that the mullahs might have issues with Ahmadinejad's economic policy, but aren't going to change their foreign policy or rhetoric towards Israel one iota. Their long term goals include obtaining nuclear weapons and the means to use them against Israel, US interests in the region, and Sunni-majority nations (pretty much everyone else in the Middle East). The elections are a relief valve that gives a veneer of choice to the population, but the control aid. "Lets not give opportunities to people who aren't affiliated to any remains in the hands of the mullahs.

In other words, the foreign policy of Iran wasn't going to change, and inserting a new name into the presidency of Iran simply changed the name, but not the intentions. All the talk about how Mousavi might open the door to diplomatic actions between Iran and the rest of the world was based on wishful thinking, not hard fact.

It was the hope for change, but no where in the election propaganda was there any signal that Iran's foreign policy, nuclear policy, or policies towards Israel and terrorism would change.

UPDATE:
Jim Hoft is running regular updates on the situation, and there are reports between 50-100 people have been killed in the rioting. Iranian blogger Azarmehr is also running updates noting that the crackdown by the regime has begun in earnest with photos taken of the situation on the streets of Tehran.

Keep in mind too that even the official news reports indicated that Tehran went for Mousavi, while the rest of the country went for Ahmadinejad.

UPDATE:
One of the statistical analysis making the rounds claiming that it proves that the elections were rigged is debunked here. It could have been rigged, but the manner in which the proponents of this evidence don't show it to be the case with their analysis.

Michael Totten weighs in. Meanwhile, rumors are rampant, including one that claims that Mousavi was arrested.

There are ongoing claims the election results are simply not credible.

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