Sunday, May 18, 2008

Hizbullah's Takeover Ignites Sectarian Conflict

This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. The NYT reports that the situation in Lebanon is dire, as Hizbullah consolidates its power to the detriment of everyone else. Thanks to Hizbullah and their terror masters in Damascus and Tehran, we're watching the opening phase of the third Lebanese civil war, though this time it isn't between Muslim and Christian, but rather the Shia Hizbullah versus everyone else:
“We cannot go back to how we lived with them before,” he said as he sat with relatives and friends at home here. “The blood is boiling here. Every boy here, his blood is boiling. They push us, they push us, they push us.”

Those feelings are being echoed throughout Lebanon. After almost a week of street battles that left scores dead and threatened to push the country into open war, long-simmering Sunni-Shiite tensions here have sharply worsened, in an ominous echo of the civil conflict in Iraq.

Hezbollah’s brief takeover of Beirut led to brutal counterattacks in northern Lebanon, where Sunni Muslims deeply resented the Shiite militant group’s display of power. The violence energized radical Sunni factions, including some affiliated with Al Qaeda, and extremist Sunni Web sites across the Arab world have been buzzing with calls for a jihad to avenge the wounded pride of Lebanese Sunnis.

Although the crisis eased Thursday after Arab diplomats brokered a deal to restart political talks among the factions, the questions that have crippled the government for 18 months remain unresolved. It is not yet clear that enough international consensus exists among the key powers involved in Lebanon — Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia and the United States — for a durable power-sharing agreement.

Meanwhile, many Lebanese agree that the hardening of Sunni-Shiite animosities — reminiscent of the Muslim-Christian fault line during the country’s 15-year civil war — is likely to make any future conflict here more violent.

“The Sunni-Shiite conflict is in the open now, it’s been triggered and operationalized,” said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut. “This is a deep wound, and it’s going to have serious repercussions if it’s not immediately and seriously addressed.”
Michael Totten suggests that the situation will not turn Lebanon into another Gaza, but I think that's a micro view of the situation. We're watching Hizbullah carve up Lebanon and consolidate its power in Beirut and the South, while it could not defeat the Druze militias operating to the North and in the mountains.

Expect the diplomats, instead of getting Hizbullah to disarm, to consolidate their moves, which is only going to further destabilize the country going forward.

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