Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Super Tuesday Returns

Well, if you're not already experiencing buyer's remorse, you haven't really been paying attention. The results are coming in and it's truly a mixed bag.

Here is the NYT results page, as well as the RealClearPolitics page.

And lest we forget, the real prize is the delegates.

Memeorandum has a huge roundup of blog reactions to the unfolding election results and subplots in various states. Of note is the strangeness in West Virginia. Don Surber doesn't think much of Mitt's whining about back room deals. I agree. If Mitt is supposed to be good at getting deals done, he should have been the one working the phones to make it happen. McCain beat him to it and showed how an insider gets it done. Whether that translates past simply politicking remains to be seen.

Others blogging: Sister Toldjah, Michelle Malkin, The Daily Conservative, Confederate Yankee, and Dan Riehl.

# On Democratic side, CNN projects Clinton the winner in New York, Oklahoma, Arkansas and Tennessee; Obama wins Illinois and Georgia
# On Republican side, CNN projects McCain as winner in Connecticut, Illinois, Delaware and New Jersey; Romney takes Massachusetts

Romney is in serious trouble right now and is losing ground fast on delegates. Hillary looks like she's going to cruise to a big win tonight, no matter how much people were spinning that Obama would keep things close.

As a public service announcement, here's a primer on how the delegate systems work for the GOP and Democrats. There will be a quiz.

Romney is toast as McCain is projected to win the winner take all state of New York. Hillary looks like she's taken New Jersey. So much for the claims that Obama had the solid exit polls. Drudge had posted the following exit returns:
OBAMA: Alabama: Obama 60, Clinton 37... Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45... Connecticut: Obama 53, Clinton 45... Delaware: Obama 56, Clinton 42... Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48... Missouri: Obama 50, Clinton 46... New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47...

CLINTON: Arkansas: Clinton 72, Obama 26... California: Clinton 50, Obama 47... New York: Clinton 56, Obama 43... Tennessee: Clinton 52, Obama 41...
As always, don't trust the exit polls. While they suggested a big night for Obama, I didn't buy into that nonsense. I expected Hillary to do what she needed to do.

These exit polls suggests a slightly different outcome:
NEP exit poll analysis by Pollster.com of the 8pm poll closes shows the Dem races as:

AL: Obama 53%, Clinton 41
CT: Obama 49%, Clinton 46%
DE: Obama 47%, Clinton 43%
IL: Obama 67%, Clinton 30%
MA: Obama 47%, Clinton 46%
MO: Clinton 44%, Obama 44%
NJ: Clinton 48%, Obama 47%
OK: Clinton 51%, Obama 27%
TN: Clinton 51%, Obama 39% (CNN calls it at 8:32)

Among GOPers:
AL: Huckabee 41%, McCain 32%, Romney 17%
IL: McCain 44%, Romney 29%, Huckabee 16%
MO: McCain 30%, Romney 30%, Huckabee 26%
OK: McCain 33%, Huckabee 28%, Romney 23%
CT: McCain 49%, Romney 30%
MA: Romney 52%, McCain 29%
TN: Huckabee 33%, McCain 29%, Romney 22%
NJ: McCain 51%, Romney 30%
Note that McCain is the big winner on the GOP side if you think the exit polls will hold up as Romney can only win one state. For the Democrats, this suggests a nail biter. I'm still not convinced.

Romney's people are saying that Mitt will stick around despite the drubbing today.

According to CNN, Rudy's endorsement of McCain played a huge role in the outcome in NY. Rudy backers went overwhelmingly for McCain.
Our exit polls show the former New York City mayor's endorsement of McCain played a key factor in his win there. Over half of New York Republicans said Giuliani's endorsement was important, and those voters went to McCain over Romney 63 percent to 22 percent. (Romney beat McCain by 47 percent to 29 percent among those voters who said Giuliani's endorsement was not important.)

The exit polls also indicate McCain inherited Giuliani's key voting bloc — those who are chiefly concerned with terrorism. Roughly half those voters went to McCain while only a third went to Romney.
Huckabee is saying that the Republicans have a two-man race, only that it's between him and McCain. Ouch. Considering the returns tonight, he's got a point.

Stephen Green is drunkblogging the returns. And he's got a real point:
Superdelegate Christine Pelosi (daughter of Speaker Nancy) tells Sean Hannity that she’s 'torn between my gender and my generation.' Either she’s a perfect example of the identity politics that plague the Democrats, or there’s not one difference between Clinton and Obama important enough to sway Pelosi with substance.
None of the candidates are truly invigorating or exciting. Sure, Obama is a compelling story, but as a candidate, he's got nothing more than the slogan of change. No one, not even his supporters, can name a single accomplishment for his career. Everyone else is a snoozer, loser, or worse.

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