Wednesday, February 06, 2008

A Super Surprise For Obama?

The delegate counts are still being tallied, but the surprise of the day, and perhaps of the entire election season may have happened. While many media outlets and pundits (myself included) figured that Hillary Clinton would come out ahead on delegates after Super Tuesday, some at NBC are claiming that Barack Obama pulled out a major upset and is now ahead in the delegate count, albeit only barely.
NBC News, which is projecting delegates based on the Democratic Party's complex formula, figures Obama will wind up with 840 to 849 delegates, versus 829 to 838 for Clinton.

Clinton was portrayed in many news accounts as the night’s big winner, but Obama’s campaign says he wound up with a higher total where it really counts — the delegates who will choose the party’s nominee at this summer’s Democratic convention.

With the delegate count still under way, NBC News said Obama appears to have won around 840 delegates in yesterday’s contests, while Clinton earned about 830 — “give or take a few,” Tim Russert, the network’s Washington bureau chief, said on the “Today” show.

The running totals for the two, which includes previous contests and the party officials known as “superdelegates,” are only about 70 delegates apart, Russert said.
It suggests that they're essentially tied.

CNN still posits that Hillary is ahead by about 80 delegates. MSNBC also has Hillary ahead in the delegate count. So does the AP.

Are all the different outlets and politicos using different methods of analysis, spin, and treatment of the super delegates to determine these numbers?

Whatever the outcome - the two are so close in number of delegates that this race may come down to the convention itself. Neither Obama nor Clinton appears capable of putting the other away.

MSNBC has updated to show a near dead heat, with Obama ahead by four delegates.

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