The Conundrum, Part 13

Imagine my surprise when I saw that Israel actually completely withdrew from Lebanon on October 1. I had thought that they would take several additional days, especially with the Yom Kippur holiday ending earlier this evening. The Lebanese military has taken up positions along the border. That's all well and good, but is anyone disarming Hizbullah, which is a requirement under UN SCR 1701, or is everyone conveniently ignoring that provision because enforcement could bring a resumption of the fighting - this time between the peacekeepers and Hizbullah.

Bashar Assad thinks that peace is possible with Israel within six months if their conditions are met - like giving up the Golan Heights. Don't expect a deal under those terms.

The Palestinian Civil War is heating up as Fatah and Hamas are fighting amongst each other again. The death toll is now 11 dead and 150 injured. Abbas is being pressured to fire the Hamas government. Hamas, for its part, wants to destroy the rebellious parts of the PA (which can be anyone who doesn't toe their line - like Fatah or anyone perceived to be moderate). The Fatah alligned al Aqsa Martyr's Brigade has threatened to kill Hamas' Haniyeh.

Support for the two terrorist groups is pretty much even, as a recent poll indicates. And for all that, Hamas is weighing a large-scale conflict with Israel. They must buy into the fact that if Israel doesn't destroy all of Hamas' infrastructure and kills all the terrorist leaders, or that Hamas continues to hold Shalit, that Hamas can and will declare victory - even if Haniyeh is the last man standing.

Gilad Shalit remains a prisoner of Hamas, and his captors have made threats that Israel better not try any raids to free Shalit in Gaza.

The gunmen, known as the Popular Resistance Committees, said stalled talks aimed at freeing Corporal Shalit had resumed but offered no details.

"If the Zionist enemy decided to enter Gaza in a large scale raid, the file of the soldier may get closed again," Said Popular Resistance Committees spokesman Abu Mujahed.

"If they enter Gaza and kill people or even if they eliminate all Gazans, they will never regain their soldier."

Hamas rejected Israel's latest offers via the Egyptian mediators. Israel is considering additional raids into Gaza. This is a repeat of the problems faced in Lebanon. Instead of acting and taking full military action to free Shalit and destroy the Hamas and Fatah terrorist infrastructure in Gaza, Israel's half measures and limited actions are only providing the terrorist groups with further evidence of Israel's inability to deal with the threat.

UPDATE:
Fixed posting time to AM from PM.

Technorati: terrorism, nasrallah, fatah, Gilad, Shalit, Olmert, Eliyahu, Asheri, Ashri, Abbas, Regev, Goldwasser, PRC, Hamas, Gaza, palestinian, Israel, hizbullah, hezbullah, hezbollah, lebanon, syria.