The Lieberman Fall Out

As everyone knows by now, Joseph Lieberman lost the Democratic Senate primary in Connecticut to Ned Lamont. But what does that mean for the future of Joe Lieberman, the future of the Connecticut Democratic Party or even the Republican Party? Today, Lieberman filed to run as an independent, under a new party , "Connecticut for Lieberman". In my opinion, this opens the door for the Republicans to capture this Senate seat.

It is obvious that Lieberman still garners strong support among Connecticut Democrats. Of the 282,103 votes cast (with 99% of the precincts reporting), Lieberman won 48% or just over 136,000 votes. Also, Lieberman brings a certain amount of name recognition to the table, which will do him well when the remaining more than 400,000 Connecticut Democrats come out to vote in the General Election. As of October 25, 2005, Connecticut had almost 700,000 registered Democrats, more than 450,000 Republicans, and, most importantly, more than 900,000 “unaffiliated”. (Source.)

Now, lets look at the last Connecticut Senate Election. November 2, 2004, Democrat Chris Dodd defeated Republican, Jack Orchulli, by a margin of almost 2:1 (945,347 to 457,749) with the remaining two candidates, Concerned Citizens, Timothy A. Knibbs, and Libertarian, Leonard H. Rasch winning 12,442 and 9,188 respectively. Accordingly, of the 1,424,726 votes cast, Dodd won 66% of the vote and Orchulli won 32%. So what does that mean for the 2006 race?

Lets assume that the 2006 election has about the same voter turn out as the 2004 election (yes its an off year election, which traditionally has lower turn out, but there is a lot of attention on this election and the primary turn out was higher than in years past.) Lets also assume, that the Republicans stick by their candidate in the same tune, i.e., about 450,000 votes. And lets say that the democrats turn out in the same number, i.e., 950,000 votes. However, who are the Democrats voting for? If you take the primary numbers as any indication, you may think that the democrats will roughly split their vote, so that would mean about 450,000 votes apiece for Lieberman and Lamont. That would leave us with close to a three way tie.

So what then? Remember those 900,000 “unaffiliated” voters? Many of them most likely vote either Republican or Democrat. However, many of them probably vote fore the alternative candidate (Connecticut for Lieberman party?). The real fight, in this race, will be between Lieberman and the Republicans for the unaffiliated votes. However, Lieberman has the name recognition factor to contend with. People in Connecticut know his name, and are used to voting for him in November. This is a powerful weapon, and one that cannot be ignored by either the Reublicans or Lamont.

Right now, in my opinion the race is too close to call. However, the Republicans must realize that they have the best chance of stealing this seat than any time in recent history. The Republicans need a grass root, get out the vote, effort, to energize their party to show up in droves at this election and to turn those 900,000 “unaffiliated” voters to Republican voters.

This race could be fun to watch till November.

Remember, no matter who you vote for – VOTE!!!