Payback's a Bitch

So, we've got Israel 'leaking' details of preparations on a strike against Iran's nuclear capabilities before they go live. We know that Israel can and would go after threats before they become imminent - and they've done it before. Osirak 1981.

That doesn't mean that they're going to have an easy time of things, and this could be letting the Iranians know that if they don't cool it, they're going to be facing something a lot worse. This is the Israeli version of deterrence, and they're hoping that it works.

Problem is that I fear nothing short of actually attacking the Iranian facilities and destabilizing the Iranian mullahs and the nutter Ahmadinejad will result in deterrence from their stated goals of obtaining nuclear weapons, using them on Israel, and holding the world over a barrel of oil.

Meanwhile, there are some who think that the threat is overblown, that Iran is just issuing bluster. That Iran is a bunch of sound and fury, signifying nothing. I can't buy into that theory. Iran is not Iraq and has decades to get its ducks in a row to obtain nuclear weapons. They've been able to take advantage of the AH Khan clandestine nuclear weapons technology network. They've been able to purchase the technologies to produce enriched uranium that is the key component in nuclear weapons.

And they're led by a bunch of religious nutters who are seeking to use the bomb to fulfill their version of the apocalypse.

Arms Control Network examine's Iran's missile capabilities and makes some guesses on what Iran is up to. They seem to think that based on their current capabilities, the threat is more likely to come in the form of terrorists carting in a weapon as opposed to a missile delivery, though that largely depends on the state of Iranian technology.

Others noticing Iran's nuttiness and the seriousness of the situation: Demosophist at The Jawa Report, The Tension (which notes Iran's response to Chirac's nuclear sabre rattling), The Brothers Judd (who wonders if realists are being realistic).

UPDATE:
Newsbusters notices that the media paid far more attention to Iran's withdrawing money from Europe to avoid being subject to possible sanctions, but made little mention of Iran's latest comments threatening Israel and virulent anti-Semitism.

UPDATE:
To be clear about the last update, we're talking about the latest rantings from Ahmadinejad, who's been on an anti-Semitic tear that would make Hitler proud. After a while, it must seem like background noise to those who are watching headlines, but in fact, each successive comment shows Ahmadinejad that his actions are being tolerated.

Meanwhile, Mark Nicodemo points out that Iranian Americans are rallying against the Iranian regime out in front of the White House.

Also, David Sanger, writing in the NYT, wonders why not striking against Iran. Good question. Stop the ACLU, Flopping Aces, and Decision '08 have more.

UPDATE:
Dekba warns (and the usual disclaimers apply) that the Iranians are only months away from being nuclear weapons capable. They claim that the Iranians have already obtained sufficient weapons' grade materials and the technologies to detonate a nuclear weapon. Link Mecca has more.

Technorati: iran, deterrence, ahmadinejad, nuclear weapon.