Fears of Civil War Reignite as Violence Flares Up In Sudan

Despite the vote calling for a partition of Sudan into a North and South Sudan, violence has flared up along the presumed border areas and refugees are once again streaming towards safer locales. Northern Sudanese forces, backing strongman Omar al-Bashir seized oil-producing areas in Abyei, an area claimed by both the North and South.

About 80,000 people have fled since the north Sudanese armed forces seized oil-producing Abyei almost a week ago, a southern official said, doubling previous estimates of the displaced.

"I saw the attackers ... I saw their guns. They were even bombing from the sky," Bol said beneath the baking sun in Turalei, about 130 km (80 miles) away from Abyei town. "I made it here with four of my children, but two are missing."

Both Sudan's mostly Muslim north, and the south, where most follow Christian and traditional beliefs, claim Abyei -- a battleground in a north-south civil war that ended in 2005.

The north's move last week sparked an international outcry and raised fears a land-grab could return Sudan to full-blown conflict, which could have a devastating impact on the region by sending refugees back across borders and creating a failed state in the south.

The attack came at a highly sensitive time for Sudan, just seven weeks before south Sudan is due to secede as an independent country, taking its oil reserves with it.

Southerners voted for independence in a January referendum agreed under the 2005 peace deal that ended the last civil war.

South Sudan To Become World's Newest Nation

The Sudanese government led by Omar al-Bashir will accept the vote enabling South Sudan to split off and establish a new nation.



All this is a good start for South Sudan, which has been hit by decades of violence, civil wars, and repression, but there are huge hurdles to overcome. Much of the country lives in extreme poverty and economic and social infrastructure is wholly inadequate.

Still, South Sudan will need to rely on its northern neighbor as the main oil pipeline from the Southern oil fields must travel through Sudan to generate much of the income needed by the country to get off its feet.

Sudan Prepares For Split Referendum

Sudan's southern provinces are preparing for a referendum that, if passed, would create an independent country in the south largely composed of animists and Christians, while the rest of Sudan would become an Islamist state under existing ruler Omar al-Bashir (who is facing additional pressure from Islamists to go even further than he already has).



It's hoped that this may end the ongoing ethnic cleansing and genocide due to ongoing fighting for more than 20 years throughout Sudan. I'm not so sure, but it will likely embolden the Islamists to continue pursuing their violent tactics in the region.

Other observers think that the partition may fuel separatist movements elsewhere in Africa and the rest of the world - a Balkinization of interests. That is a distinct possibility, but the actions in Sudan are a step in correcting longstanding colonial impacts - when the Europeans carved up much of Africa, they did so without regard to existing tribal lines and established arbitrary boundaries that separated tribes among multiple countries or paired longstanding enemies under one country's rule. That's led to conflicts throughout Africa, including the Rwandan and Congolese genocides.

Meanwhile, neighboring Kenya is gearing up for potential problems even as polling centers open for displaced Sudanese.

This will not directly affect the ongoing human rights crisis in Darfur, where Sudanese forces continue operating.

Relishing Trips To Dictatorships, Sen. Kerry To Visit Darfur

To what end is Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) planning on visiting Darfur, Sudan?

US Democratic Senator John Kerry, who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will visit Darfur next week, a US official said on Monday, amid signs of thawing US-Sudan relations.

"John Kerry will arrive in the middle of next week, he will visit Darfur and meet with officials in the country. His visit will last a few days," the official said, requesting anonymity.

US President Barack Obama's new Sudan envoy Scott Gration is currently in Sudan, where he appealed for stronger relations with Khartoum and met several Sudanese officials.

Gration was in south Sudan on Monday and might meet President Omar al-Beshir in Khartoum before returning to the United States at the end of the week.

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Beshir last month for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity during the six-year conflict in Darfur.

Beshir's regime has since expelled many international aid organisations working in Darfur, where Gration has said the humanitarian crisis is "on the brink of deepening."

It's being billed as a fact-finding mission, but we already know the facts. There's no way that the US is going to take action against Sudan to stop the genocide and ethnic cleansing in Darfur, and the Sudanese government in Khartoum is well on the way to finishing the job.

What makes little sense is the claim that the US-Sudanese relations are thawing, or that there is any reason to believe that they should thaw. Sudanese President Bashir has been indicted on war crimes and genocide charges, and this is a regime that the Obama Administration wants closer ties with? In what bizarro world is this Administration living in? This isn't a regime to have closer ties with. It's one to be even more wary of given that al Qaeda has been active in Sudan and the Darfur genocide shows just how far the regime is willing to go to carry out its destructive policies.

Kerry has been quite busy visiting despots and dictators, having just been to Syria to take the pulse of the Syrian dictator Assad, whose regime has been supporting Hizbullah and Hamas in its war against Israel and has been repeatedly engaging in destabilizing activities in Lebanon. Kerry is the Administration's frontman in dealing with these odious regimes, and he seems to relish the opportunity.

Arrest Warrant Issued For Sudan's Thuggish President

This should have happened years ago, but it is a step in the right direction. Sudan's regime in Khartoum has been a willing and capable participant and enabler of the Darfur genocide and ethnic cleansing. Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir has repeatedly thwarted international efforts to assist the millions of Darfur refugees, whether it was the United Nations or the African Union. An arrest warrant was issued for Bashir.

The Netherlands-based International Criminal Court on Wednesday announced an arrest warrant for Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir on charges of crimes against humanity and war crimes in the Darfur region — a move that could provoke a violent backlash.

But the three-judge panel said there was insufficient evidence to support charges of genocide.

"He is suspected of being criminally responsible ... for intentionally directing attacks against an important part of the civilian population of Darfur, Sudan, murdering, exterminating, raping, torturing and forcibly transferring large numbers of civilians, and pillaging their property," court spokeswoman Laurence Blairon said.
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Many observers are nervous about the fallout over the ICC's first warrant against a sitting head of state since it started work in 2002.

ICC prosecutors accuse al-Bashir of ordering war crimes in Sudan's western region of Darfur, where the Arab-led government is trying to put down a rebellion by the ethnic African population. At least 300,000 people have been killed and 2.7 million driven from their homes in fighting since 2003.

The arrest warrant was issued by the International Criminal Court in the Hague, Netherlands but it falls short of indicting him on charges of genocide. I don't see much coming from it and the Sudanese thug will simply shrug this off, just as he has watched hundreds of thousands murdered and millions displaced by the janjaweed and his own militias throughout Western Sudan. Sudan doesn't recognize the court's jurisdiction.

Actually, Bashir did more than just shrug it off. He said that the ICC could eat it.

Campaigning for his National Congress Party (NCP) outside Khartoum on Tuesday, President Bashir discounted the importance of the ICC's looming decision, saying that the Court could "eat" the indictment. Vice President Salva Kiir, a former southern rebel leader who now shares power with Bashir in a coalition government, struck a more conciliatory line.

"In the event of the court agreeing with the chief prosecutor," Mr. Kiir said on Tuesday, "the [Sudan People's Liberation Movement] will work with its partners in the NCP on how to politically and diplomatically handle the decision of the court." He urged the international community to remain engaged in Sudan, whatever the decision, warning, "The collapse of peace in Sudan shall not only hurt the Sudan itself, but shall also have serious repercussions in the region."

In Khartoum, some foreign embassies beefed up security for fear that Sudanese thugs might engage in some kind of demonstration or violence against governments that back the ICC efforts to bring the murderous thugs in Sudan to justice.

Sudan has done little to provide stability in the region, and the Darfur genocide and ethnic cleansing has meant that there are more than 2 million refugees scattered in the region and neighboring countries that are ill equipped to deal with the situation.

Of course, there are others who think that the ICC indictment will actually lead to greater woes for Darfur and Sudan. They're worried that it might lead to a renewal of the civil war that resulted in more than 2 million dead.

UPDATE:
Sudan expels an aid group that was helping Darfur refugees. Classy.