What Is Huckabee Hiding?

FOIA requests for information from Mike Huckabee's years as governor in Arkansas have revealed a rather troublesome response: the computer hard drives and records were physically destroyed by the outgoing Huckabee administration in anticipation of a run for President.

Those requests were made of his successor, Mike Bebee, who noted that Huckabee destroyed everything ranging from travel records to calendars and call logs, but gave a backup copy to Huckabee's former chief of staff:

In February, Mother Jones wrote to the office of Arkansas Gov. Mike Beebe seeking access to a variety of records concerning his predecessor's tenure, including Huckabee's travel records, calendars, call logs, and emails. Beebe's chief legal counsel, Tim Gauger, replied in a letter that "former Governor Huckabee did not leave behind any hard-copies of the types of documents you seek. Moreover, at that time, all of the computers used by former Governor Huckabee and his staff had already been removed from the office and, as we understand it, the hard-drives in those computers had already been 'cleaned' and physically destroyed."

He added, "In short, our office does not possess, does not have access to, and is not the custodian of any of the records you seek."

"Huckabee just absolutely doesn’t trust anybody," says one former high-ranking Arkansas Republican. "In my experience, if you don't trust people, it's because you're not trustworthy."

The person who may know the most about Huckabee's records—or lack of them—is Jim Parsons. A self-described gadfly, Parsons is a former Green Beret turned good-government crusader who has filed dozens of Freedom of Information requests targeting Arkansas politicos on both sides of the aisle, including the Clintons. Shortly after Huckabee left office, Parsons went to battle with the state over his records.

In January 2007, Parsons requested "a copy of all information" on the Huckabee administration's computers the day he left office. Beebe's office provided Parsons with a January 9 memo addressed to Huckabee from the Arkansas Department of Information Systems, reporting that all of the gubernatorial hard drives had been "crushed under the supervision of a designee of [Huckabee's] office." That is, a Huckabee aide had made sure all this information was destroyed.

The memo included another tantalizing piece of information: The information stored on the drives had been saved on a backup, which was handed over to Huckabee's then-chief of staff, Brenda Turner. The history of the Huckabee administration, then, was locked away, under the watchful eye of a former aide. What did she do with this information? Where is it now? Turner, who now runs the PR shop for a Arkansas-based purveyor of Christian-themed greeting cards, did not respond to repeated requests for comment. (Contacted via his political action committee, Huckabee didn't respond to questions about his records.)

Parsons requested the backups and eventually filed a lawsuit against Huckabee and Beebe, alleging that the new governor had siphoned taxpayer money from an emergency fund to pay to replace the destroyed hard drives. Altogether, the new equipment cost over $335,000. Huckabee countered that the information on the hard drives included private details, such as social security numbers, that shouldn’t be released to the public. In the end, Parsons' suit was dismissed—largely because he didn't name Turner, who apparently possessed the records, as a plaintiff.

Why would someone do that if they didn't have something(s) to hide. Given his track record (including giving out pardons to those who didn't deserve it), this should raise more questions about his character and fitness to be a candidate for president.

Mike Huckabee Unloads on Natalie Portman For Being Young, Unwed and Pregnant

Mike Huckabee must think that attacking Natalie Portman for being unwed and pregnant will score him points.

He slammed Portman for being young and pregnant, along with other Hollywood types who have no problem showing off their baby bumps while being unmarried.

You know Michael, one of the things that's troubling is that people see a Natalie Portman or some other Hollywood starlet who boasts of, 'Hey look, you know, we're having children, we're not married, but we're having these children, and they're doing just fine.' But there aren't really a lot of single moms out there who are making millions of dollars every year for being in a movie. And I think it gives a distorted image that yes, not everybody hires nannies, and caretakers, and nurses. Most single moms are very poor, uneducated, can't get a job, and if it weren't for government assistance, their kids would be starving to death and never have health care. And that's the story that we're not seeing, and it's unfortunate that we glorify and glamorize the idea of out of children wedlock.

You know, right now, 75 percent of black kids in this country are born out of wedlock. 61 percent of Hispanic kids -- across the board, 41 percent of all live births in America are out of wedlock births. And the cost of that is simply staggering.

I think this is nothing more than red meat for the masses.

Portman can definitely take care of herself and her soon to be born kid(s). She's financially secure AFAIK, and the Oscar win helps in that department as well.

Huckabee's beef that she's a bad role model simply doesn't hold up to close scrutiny. Portman was an Intel Science Competition semi-finalist, and graduated from Yale. She's got a very bright future even if she never works in Hollywood again, and she's got a supportive family and looks to be marrying the baby's father (the choreographer on Black Swan).

Huckabee is trying to stay relevant, and this simply doesn't cut it for me.

UPDATE:
Now, Huckabee is attempted to weasel his way out of this self-induced mess with a retraction of sorts:

However, contrary to what the Hollywood media reported, I did not "slam" or "attack" Natalie Portman, nor did I criticize the hardworking single mothers in our country. My comments were about the statistical reality that most single moms are very poor, under-educated, can't get a job, and if it weren't for government assistance, their kids would be starving to death. That's the story that we're not seeing, and it's unfortunate that society often glorifies and glamorizes the idea of having children out of wedlock."

Nonsense. He specifically named and singled out Portman. Had he not mentioned Portman at all, there might have been a valid point in his commentary about single moms and out-of-wedlock babies. The problem is that he did mention Portman by name and included her in the number of people glamorizing single motherhood and that isn't even the case.

Just When Huckabee's Political Problems Couldn't Get Worse

It does. First, the head of his political action committee called it quits over the revelations surrounding his clemency.

The Arkansas coordinator for Mike Huckabee’s political action committee resigned Tuesday, citing the former Arkansas governor’s decision nine years ago to grant clemency to Maurice Clemmons, the man suspected of murdering four police officers in Washington state.

Jason Tolbert, who runs a conservative blog, served as Arkansas state coordinator for HuckPAC in a volunteer capacity.

If anyone had dug a little deeper, they would have heard about the clemency issues even before Clemmons. Tolbert had to overlook those issues, including Wayne DuMond, when he took the job. It's only after Clemmons that he bails? Better late than never, I guess.

Now, the New York Times reveals a series of letters between prosecutors and Huckabee's office, and they show just how unserious Huckabee was about clemency issues.

One prosecutor wrote to Huckabee concerned over whether Huckabee was seriously considering parole board recommendations or independently coming to decisions. The response from Huckabee: he laughed out loud and then suggested that the prosecutor cut back on the caffeine.

Robert Herzfeld, then the prosecuting attorney of Saline County, wrote a letter to Governor Huckabee in January 2004, saying his policy on clemency was “fatally flawed” and suggesting that he should announce specific reasons for granting clemency. Mr. Huckabee’s chief aide on clemency wrote back: “The governor read your letter and laughed out loud. He wanted me to respond to you. I wish you success as you cut down on your caffeine consumption.”

The full documents are here.

Suspect In Washington Cop Killings Surrounded; UPDATE: Or Not

Maurice Clemmons is no longer just a person of interest in the murder of four Lakeland, Washington police officers. He's the main suspect and his home in Seattle has been surrounded by police. The police think he may be injured or even dead as hostage negotiators are thus far unable to contact Clemmons.

Clemmons is believed to be in the Leschi house that police have surrounded in Seattle since late Sunday night.

"He has suffered a gunshot wound," Troyer said at a media briefing held just before 3 a.m.

Police know that Clemmons was wounded because they have detained other people — Troyer wouldn't say how many — who helped Clemmons after the shootings.

At the briefing, Troyer said police now consider Clemmons a suspect, rather than merely a "person of interest."

Police don't know the severity of Clemmons' wound, and Troyer said he may already be dead.

Investigators have no indication that Clemmons had a motive aimed specifically at any of the particular officers who were gunned down, Troyer said.

"He was upset about being incarcerated," Troyer said. "He was just targeting cops."

So, how did we get here?

To recap, Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee granted Clemmons clemency despite protestations by prosecutors. That allowed Clemmons to leave prison in 2000 despite having been sentenced to a 48 year prison sentence and a separate 60 year sentence. Instead of using the opportunity of Huckabee's clemency to get a fresh start and make a new and better life, Clemmons became a one man crime spree in Arkansas and Washington State. He threatened a judge in one of his trials, and Washington classified him as someone who was highly likely to reoffend (in other words, he would likely restart his criminal activities even with supervision).

Clemmons has at least five felony convictions in Arkansas and at least eight felony charges in Washington. Even after the commutation of his sentence, he was sent back to prison for two armed robberies, and yet he was paroled.

In fact, Clemmons was somehow managed to secure bail on the latest of those Washington charges just this past week; a child rape and before that, he assaulted a cop.

Why did no judge at any step of the way recognize the imminent danger that Clemmons posed to the general public and order him held without bail? Why did anyone think that Clemmons would not be a menace to the public despite all the evidence to the contrary.

Despite his lengthy record of violence and the danger he posed to the public, Huckabee granted clemency and Washington and Arkansas officials had no problem granting him parole on other charges and even granting him bail on a child rape charge. He was accused of raping and molesting a 12-year old relative.

As a condition of that bail on the child rape charge, Clemmons was supposed to wear a GPS ankle bracelet, but law enforcement found his during a search of his wife's home.

Police have set up a memorial fund for the four officers murdered by Clemmons; Mark Renninger, Tina Griswold, Ronald Owens and Greg Richards.

All these events would not have occurred but for Huckabee granting clemency, and thus far the reasons proffered do little to justify the clemency; Huckabee reportedly claimed that he commuted the sentence because Clemmons was 17 at the time of the first crimes in Arkansas. Sorry, but that doesn't cut it. The nature of the crimes, and the fact that the Arkansas Supreme Court upheld his conviction (Clemmons contested that he didn't receive adequate representation at court), brings Huckabee's judgment into question once again.

After all, this was hardly the first time someone whose sentence was reduced by Huckabee went on to commit more crimes.

UPDATE:
Reports suggesting that Clemmons was surrounded by police at his home appear to have been wrong. Police were indeed outside his home, but he wasn't there.

The News Tribune of Tacoma quoted Ed Troyer, a spokesman for the Pierce County Sheriff's Office, as saying a search of the Leschi home turned up a weapon but not the suspect, Maurice Clemmons.

Clemmons is on the run, Troyer said. The Leschi neighborhood remains on lockdown. Nearby Leschi Elementary School is closed.

A murder warrant has been issued for Clemmons.

Troyer said Clemmons was shot and wounded in a Lakewood coffee shop where the officers were killed.

Clemmons - a man with an extensive criminal history in Washington and Arkansas - was the suspect in the Sunday morning shootings of four Lakewood Police officers, who were gunned down as they worked on their laptops, Troyer said.

About an hour before Troyer's early Monday briefing observers believed tear gas was shot into a structure by a Leschi home, which was described as a trailer. Police set up a command center hours earlier near the home at East Yesler Way and 32nd Street, just blocks from where a Seattle police officer was shot and killed last month.

UPDATE:
Huckabee's political action committee released a statement, blaming everyone but himself for the decision to commute Clemmons' sentence.

Should he be found to be responsible for this horrible tragedy, it will be the result of a series of failures in the criminal justice system in both Arkansas and Washington State. He was recommended for and received a commutation of his original sentence from 1990, this commutation made him parole eligible and he was then paroled by the parole board once they determined he met the conditions at that time. He was arrested later for parole violation and taken back to prison to serve his full term, but prosecutors dropped the charges that would have held him. It appears that he has continued to have a string of criminal and psychotic behavior but was not kept incarcerated by either state. This is a horrible and tragic event and if found and convicted the offender should be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. Our thoughts and prayers are and should be with the families of those honorable, brave, and heroic police officers.

Who exactly recommended his parole, and why wasn't the concerns of the prosecutors taken into account? Huckabee is right that there were others who deserve blame, but his initial action to commute the sentence must be reexamined in detail.

UPDATE:
The Seattle Times reports that police are looking for a green '97 Mazda Millenia w/ WA license plate 208-SSX. It's registered to Clemmons' wife. He may be attempting to flee the state and head back to Arkansas but police are also responding to a report that blood was found at Cowen Park in Ravenna.

More details are emerging about Huckabee's commutation of Clemmons' sentence, including the fact that Clemmons claimed he was a changed man - that he found religion.

"I succumbed to the peer pressure and the need I had to be accepted by other youth in my new environment and fell in with the wrong crowd and thus began a seven (7) month crime spree which led me to prison," Clemmons wrote in his application to Huckabee.

Clemmons said he came from "a very good Christian family" and "was raised much better than my actions speak (I'm still ashamed to this day for the shame my stupid involvement in these crimes brought to my family name.)," he wrote.

"Where once stood a young (16) year old misguided fool, who's (sic) own life he was unable to rule. Now stands a 27 year old man, who has learned through 'the school of hard knocks' to appreciate and respect the rights of others. And who has in the midst of the harsh reality of prison life developed the necessary skills to stand along (sic) and not follow a multitude of do evil, as I did as a 16 year old child."

Clemmons added that his mother had recently died without seeing him turn his life around and that he prayed Huckabee would show compassion by releasing him.

The documents indicate Clemmons' release from prison was supported by Pulaski County Circuit Court Judge Marion Humphrey, who cited Clemmons' age at the time of his crimes and called his sentence excessive. His release was unanimously approved by the parole board.

Humphrey also apparently married Clemmons to Nicole Cheryleen Smith in 2004.

Huckabee fell for this, despite the harsh nature of the crimes he committed and the lengthy prison sentences handed down and affirmed by the Arkansas Supreme Court.

Then, there's the crimes he committed immediately after his release from prison the first time:

Clemmons was released from prison in August 2000, said Dina Tyler, spokeswoman for the Arkansas Department of Corrections.

He was sent back to prison on a parole violation — a robbery charge — in July 2001, according to Tyler.

He received a 10-year sentence, Tyler said, but records show he was paroled in March 2004. He was to remain on parole until 2021.

Clemmons moved to Washington state while still on parole. He spent the past several months in jail on a child-rape charge but was released last week after posting a $15,000 bond. His release here came despite seven other pending felony charges, according to court records.

He didn't even make it a year before being sent back to prison. Yet, he was granted parole for a 10 year sentence just three years later.

UPDATE:
Why did Arkansas withdraw a no-bail provision that would have kept Clemmons in Washington custody while he was pending trial?

Arrested on July 1 after he came to Pierce County Superior Court, Clemmons was initially held on a no-bail warrant out of Arkansas filed after he was charged with assault and malicious mischief case in relation to the May incident. In Pierce County, Clemmons' bail amounted to $190,000 in the cases against him, which by early July included a second-degree child rape charge.

On parole for various felony convictions in Arkansas, authorities claim Clemmons violated the conditions of his release during the May incident when he allegedly punched a police officer, broke several windows and hit an elderly man in the head with a rock. The allegations that followed -- that he raped the then-12-year-old daughter of an acquaintance -- would also have placed him in violation.

Speaking Monday, Pierce County Prosecutor Mark Lindquist said Arkansas withdrew the no-bail hold on July 22, ultimately enabling Clemmons to post the $190,000 bail and gain his release from custody.

Lindquist acknowledged that prosecutors in Pierce County did not request that Clemmons' bail amount be increased after the no-bail hold was dropped. They did, however, argue successfully against a reduction proposed by Clemmons' attorney.

"Typically, that amount would be enough to hold a defendant," Lindquist said at his office. "This would all be a moot point if the no-bail hold was still in effect."

In the weeks that followed the removal of the no-bail hold, Clemmons was able to put together a bond payment and secure his release on Nov. 23. Days before his release, prosecutors had filed paperwork indicating they would seek a life-sentence against Clemmons under Washington's "three-strikes" law targeting persistent offenders.

Suspect In Washington Police Killings Had Sentence Commuted By Huckabee?

If Republican Mike Huckabee thought he had a chance of running for President in 2012, it might have gone up in flames today. You see, he was the governor of Arkansas and he made a very questionable decision to commute the sentence of a recidivist criminal.

That, by itself isn't unusual. Neither is the fact that state prosecutors vigorously objected to Huckabee commuting the sentence. That too isn't unusual, but many governors will not commute sentences when there is such objections.

Huckabee's problem is that the main suspect in the murder of four Washington State police officers, Mark Renninger, Tina Griswold, Ronald Owens and Greg Richards, is the guy whose sentence was commuted by Huckabee over the objection of prosecutors.

Maurice Clemmons, the 37-year-old Tacoma man being sought for questioning in the killing of four Lakewood police officers this morning, has a long criminal record punctuated by violence, erratic behavior and concerns about his mental health.

Nine years ago, then-Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee granted clemency to Clemmons, commuting his lengthy prison sentence over the protestations of prosecutors.

"This is the day I've been dreading for a long time," Larry Jegley, prosecuting attorney for Arkansas' Pulaski County said Sunday night when informed that Clemmons was being sought in connection to the killings.

Clemmons' criminal history includes at least five felony convictions in Arkansas and at least eight felony charges in Washington. The record also stands out for the number of times he has been released from custody despite questions about the danger he posed.

If you think that Wille Horton derailed Mike Dukakis' campaign efforts in 1988, then get used to the name Maurice Clemmons.

But before you think that is bad enough, Washington state has its own issues to deal with, given that Clemmons was in custody of police just days ago on a child rape charge, but somehow was allowed to post bail even as he had charges pending in Arkansas and Washington.

The Potomac Primaries

Voters are going to the polls in Virginia, District of Columbia, and Maryland today. Democratic hopeful Sen. Barack Obama looks to complete the hat trick by taking all three states. Sen. Hillary Clinton is already looking ahead to Ohio and Texas for her last stand (well, that and coercing the DNC to seating the delegates from Florida and Michigan that would give her a significant edge in the number of delegates over Obama).

Presidential candidates in both parties have a lot at stake in these Potomac primaries.

Coming off his sweep in five weekend contests, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois will be aiming for a political hat trick over Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York.

Maryland, Virginia and especially the District of Columbia have a large percentage of African-American voters, as well as affluent and highly educated white voters -- two demographics exit polls show Obama has done well with before.

Virginia is also an open primary, meaning independents are allowed to vote. Exit polls indicate Obama has done very well among independents voting in Democratic contests.

"That's how we're going to win, is to build a winning coalition [of] not just Democrats, but independents and Republicans who have also lost trust in their government, have lost faith in their leaders, who want to move in a new direction," Obama said at a Maryland rally Monday. Video Watch Obama continue to pile up wins while Clinton regroups »

"That's what we want. Everybody getting on the change bandwagon, the Change Express," he added.

Clinton was also in Maryland Monday. She downplayed Obama's victories this weekend in Louisiana, Washington, Nebraska, Maine and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Clinton has to play down the losses because she is falling behind in the public perception of her candidacy and calculating the number of delegates both candidates have suggests a tie. She's placing all of her eggs in the basket of Ohio and Texas.

Meanwhile, for the GOP, Mike Huckabee continues to hang around, despite the statistical improbability that he could wrest the nomination from John McCain. If anything, this actually favors McCain since it keeps his name in the media while the Democrats slug it out. It gives McCain someone to bounce campaign slogans off of and free media coverage. Huckabee isn't a real threat to McCain, but strong showings still suggest that McCain's support can be thin among conservatives.

Romney "Suspends" His Campaign

He's calling it a suspension of his campaign, but he's done. Toast.

He couldn't outlast Mike Huckabee, who is nothing more than a stalking horse for John McCain and drew away conservative voters who might have gone for Romney. It also showed that Romney didn't have anywhere near the support necessary to carry the South (or anywhere else).

It also shows that the pundits had no clue as to what would happen this political season. Some were suggesting that the GOP would have a brokered convention and it would be smooth sailing for Hillary Clinton. That's not how it turned out.

Hillary is in a slugfest with Obama, and it looks like it may go down to the wire, while the GOP has a whole lot of time to figure out how to reorient his campaign to the general election. It gives the GOP valuable time to prepare for the general campaign.

The Florida Primary and the End of the Road for Rudy

There's a couple of ways to look at the results so far. Mike Huckabee is toast - and I don't see anyone going to him for advice. Ditto Ron Paul, although he's hanging around like a roach after the nuclear holocaust.

It is a two-person race for the GOP as Mitt Romney and John McCain are pretty close in the tally, but McCain has a small but sizable lead at the moment. Even if he wins, he'd still be behind Romney in the overall number of delegates because the Florida GOP got docked for jumping ahead on the primary order.

Rudy Giuliani is toast. The writing has been on the wall for the past several weeks as pretty much everyone has written him off and voters have looked elsewhere as the media pounded on his campaign (or lack thereof).

For Rudy, it's all a matter of what his intentions are going forward. Does he want to be VP or AG in someone else's backyard and what does he bring to the table for the other candidates?

I know some think that McCain and Rudy are chummy, but I just don't see that. Rudy and McCain are far too strong personalities to mesh very well, and McCain would bristle at the idea that Rudy is around, even if he's given the VP slot.

A better choice for Rudy would be to throw support behind Mitt. They are a better fit ideologically and on the judges. They're both similar on social policy and the best fit would be Rudy going for AG.

From a geographic perspective, Rudy would benefit Mitt because of the NYC area ties, but even that has its limits (see FL). Fred Thompson might be a better fit for Mitt as VP if only b/c he's from the South and that would be prudent to take up a geographic bloc.

I'm pretty disappointed with Rudy's run. I thought the possibility of leaving the early races to stake it on FL was sound if only because everyone else would beat up on each other, but the downside was that such infighting kept your name in the paper and it gave Rudy the rep that he wasn't really fighting hard for the nomination.

Oh well.

For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton ran unopposed as John Edwards and Barack Obama both listened to the DNC and did not campaign in the state. Too bad for them, because Hillary did. And now, she's busy claiming that she'll enfranchise the voters by getting their delegates seated. How nice of her to get a cheap win.

The big winner thus far looks like it's John McCain, who's kicked Huckabee and Rudy to the curb. Hillary is a close second.

It's shaping up to be one ugly set of choices when New Jersey voters get their chance.

UPDATE:
So much for predicting this one. Time is reporting that Rudy will be endorsing McCain. We'll see how much that's worth to McCain.

Winners and Losers in New Hampshire

Well, the pundits and media are busy spinning the results from New Hampshire as comebacks for both Hillary Clinton and John McCain.

I think they've got it all wrong.

Let's start with the Democrats. Hillary Clinton didn't actually win the state outright, despite winning the popular vote (which is what the media is focusing on). She tied. The point of these primaries isn't to win the popular vote, but to win enough delegates to win the party's nomination. Take a good look at those results.

Both Obama and Hillary each won nine delegates in New Hampshire. The best way to describe this process is that the primaries are a series of Electoral College decisions, with the popular vote informing the delegates, but each state has its own rules on how the delegates are apportioned.

At this point, she's got more than double Barack Obama's pledged delegates either from the states already contested or those superdelegates who have already announced preferences.

This cuts against all the nonsense about how Hillary was on the ropes or was going to drop out of the race that was spewed immediately after Iowa where Obama won in a tight race.

It means that Obama did what he needs to do, which is keep picking up delegates and staying close to Hillary. However, it's the perception that Hillary was down and out that was broken - although it was a perception generated by a media that simply has been getting it wrong all along with respect to the primaries.

Now, let's get to the GOP race. For the media, John McCain's win is supposedly about a comeback. Nonsense. Utter bunk. New Hampshire has gone for McCain before, and it's done nothing to help McCain win the nominiation, let alone win the Presidency. McCain has a significant constituency in New Hampshire, but it doesn't translate to the rest of the country.

He still trails Mitt Romney and Huckabee badly in total delegates. Romney still has a lead over Huckabee despite not having won a state - he's winning delegates finishing second in each of the races thus far. The media also has been treating Romney in the same fashion as Hillary - as being on the ropes and reconsidering his position in the race, despite the fact that he's leading in total delegates pledged or won.

Now, some will say that the media influenced the races because they were getting polling data suggesting that Obama would win handily and McCain was in a tight race, but I think that's just 20-20 hindsight. The polls were wrong. I'm not sure why that was the case, but it's not like the polls haven't been wrong (and badly wrong at that) in the past. If your methodologies or selection samples aren't accurate, you're not going to get a representative sample that reflects the voters.

Then, there's the last minute vote switches based on breaking events. Did Hillary's emotional moment have an effect. Perhaps, but there's no real way to break that out.

This race will truly start to shake out after Super Tuesday, when a block of 20 states will get to vote and apportion their delegates. It's only after that point will the race clarify and see who reallyhas an advantage in delegates, strategy, and whether there is any momentum from these early races.

That said, there were some losers last night - John Edwards, who simply can't generate any traction, Fred Thompson, who barely registered with Republicans, and Rudy Giuliani who couldn't overcome the perception that he wasn't really going after New Hampshire voters despite having been to the state more than 40 times and spending more than $2 million on the state.

UPDATE:
Michelle Malkin is on the same page and ripping the spin and punditry that is focusing far too much on the popular vote and not spending nearly enough time on the delegate counts.

UPDATE:
This shouldn't come as a surprise. Bill Richardson has dropped out of the race. Expect him to try and angle for a VP slot for Hillary or Obama.

Finding the Narrative

Well, Iowa's done, as are Christopher Dodd's and Joseph Biden's campaigns to become president. They threw in the towel last night after failing to gain any traction in the campaign for the Democratic party nomination.

The new narrative percolating in the media is how Mike Huckabee's win in Iowa has thrown the GOP race into disarray. Are you kidding me? Are you kidding me?

We're one state into this campaign and the pundits are already spinning furiously over what Iowa means. Huckabee threw all his eggs in this basket and he's lucky to have won here, but it likely wont translate into any momentum down the road since he simply doesn't have the money backing to sustain himself going forward. Romney and Thompson both get to fight another day, as does McCain and Paul. Rudy hasn't even gotten into the fight, and his first real test comes in Florida. It looks like Romney is in trouble given he needed a stronger showing in Iowa, but even that isn't a fatal blow to his campaign. In other words, things have gone more or less as predicted and no one has taken a commanding lead here. There was no real change for the GOP and the candidates all get to slug it out for at least another state or two. I'm not sure the public wants order in this race - and 49 other states get their chance to weigh in on who should represent the GOP in November.

On the Democrats side, things are actually in disarray. Hillary came in third, with Obama winning handily. Edwards slid into second place just ahead of Hillary. The bottom dropped out for Dodd and Biden, but I'd expect to see Gravel and Kucinich drop out as well - leaving a three person race. However, the surprise here is who's got the momentum and just how badly this leaves the Hillary campaign. Considering how many people put her as the frontrunner, I'd say this counts as disarray. Obama's surging in the polls and Edwards looks like he's got some momentum as well.

UPDATE:
ABC is cutting three of the candidates from its next debates: Republican candidate Duncan Hunter and Democrats Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel.

Game On: Iowa Caucuses Underway

I'm sticking with my earlier predictions for the outcome in Iowa. If they come true, great. If not, it's on to New Hampshire. The same may not be said for those candidates whose fortunes depend on a good showing in Iowa.

That includes Bill Richardson, whose supporters might throw in with Obama if only to thwart Hillary. Similarly, Joe Biden is looking to stay ahead of Richardson.

CSPAN has a running tab on the events in Iowa for those so inclined to follow every ounce of coverage.

Hot Air has an open thread devoted to the caucus coverage. Others blogging include Michelle Malkin, Dan Riehl, and Junkyard Blog.

UPDATE:
As of 9pm, Drudge is reporting the following:

Obama 33.20; Edwards 32.09; Clinton 31.77
WINNER: Huckabee 33!; Romney 24 McCain 11 Paul 0; Thompson 17 Giuliani 0

With heavy turnout, things could still change.

So far, it looks like I've got the Democrats figured, but got Huckabee and Romney flipped for the GOP with McCain and Thompson flipped as well. However, Rudy and Ron Paul have failed to muster any votes at this stage.

UPDATE:
New numbers from Drudge:

Obama 33.93; Edwards 31.83; Clinton 31.56
Huckabee 35; Romney 24; Thompson 14; McCain 12

Things are tightening up for Thompson and McCain, while things look about the same for the Democrats.

UPDATE:
Via Patrick Ruffini (a great source for all things politics), Richardson's campaign is denying that any deals were done.

UPDATE:
It's interesting to see how much money the candidates have spent - both in Iowa and nationally. Huckabee's folks told ABC that he's has spent all of $5 million nationally, with $1 million in Iowa. All of his eggs are in one basket. In contrast, they suppose that Romney has spent $90 million nationally, and $15 in Iowa. Rudy, who is waiting until the later primaries may have spent $75 million nationally.

UPDATE:
ABC has primary results coming in as well, and they've got Huckabee comfortably winning and Obama pulling away to win 35% of the vote and Hillary and Edwards are in a statistical dead heat with 30% each. Richardson, Biden, and the rest of the gang barely register. For the GOP, it looks like Ron Paul will stick around a little while longer, losing out to Rudy by a few hundred votes (despite the fact that Rudy wasn't even actively campaigning in Iowa).

UPDATE:
As of 9:30, looks like Ron Paul has taken a huge lead on Rudy for fifth place.

Iowa Spin Cycle Underway: AKA The Iowa Caucus

The Iowa caucus is underway, and most people don't quite understand how the caucus operates. It's not a standard election where everyone places their vote on a candidate and the votes are tallied.

There are a series of rules that winnow the field - 15% is required to move on to the second round and supporters of those candidates that fail to get 15% can move their votes to other candidates. Second and third tier candidates who have little chance of success can determine the outcome by pushing their votes to one of the other candidates.

As the Democrats headed into Iowa, they were spinning furiously. Hillary Clinton was setting a very low bar, figuring that she would probably place third. That sucks to be her, considering that she has been the Democratic frontrunner from the moment she stepped into the race. All of her mojo has gone as people realize how badly she handles criticism and adversity. Obama and Edwards stand to gain from her dropoff, and all are looking to win Iowa. Whoever wins on the Democrat's side, will have a big boost heading into New Hampshire and the Super Tuesdays.

Real Clear Politics has more.

The GOP will have similar issues, and while Iowa looks to be a race between Romney and Huckabee, it isn't likely to settle anything as Rudy Giuliani has pegged his hopes on the big tier states like Florida, California, New Jersey, and New York, all of which come after New Hampshire and South Carolina. The condensed schedule has changed the calculus used by candidates to determine where to campaign, and Rudy thinks that this will enable him to focus on those states where most of the votes necessary to win the nomination are to be found - not Iowa and New Hampshire.

As for predictions, I'm going to go with Obama winning the caucus for the Democrats. Edwards will take second and Hillary a very disappointing third with Richardson taking fourth by a very narrow margin. Romney will win for the GOP. Huckabee will take second by a narrow margin with McCain sliding into third. Fred Thompson will take fourth, but the surprise will be how strong Rudy will do in Iowa given his paucity of campaigning there. Ron Paul will be a nonfactor.

UPDATE:
There are rumblings of a major scandal about to break (or two scandals) and the focus is apparently Mitt Romney, if you can believe the scuttlebutt. I'm not sure there's anything there to break, but if there is, I'll post it.

Fox News Skews Iowa Straw Poll

Why would Fox News screw up something so basic as reporting the facts of the results of the Iowa Straw Poll? Why would they mislead everyone as to the full outcome based on the current field of candidates.

In other words, why did they purposefully ignore the showing of Ron Paul? He's a crank in my book, but Fox had a duty to include his showing in the Iowa Straw Poll. They mentioned everyone else, but not Paul. Here's the Fox Story in full:

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney won an easy and expected victory in a high-profile Iowa Republican Party Straw Poll on Saturday, claiming nearly twice as many votes as his nearest rival.

Romney had been expected to win the test because he spent millions of dollars and months of effort on an event that was skipped by two of his major rivals.

Romney scored 4,516 votes to outpace former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee who had 2,587 votes. Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback was third with 2,192 votes.

Announcement of the results was delayed for 90 minutes because a hand count was required on one of the 18 machines.

The biggest loser of the evening likely was former Wisconsin Gov. Tommy Thompson, who finished in 6th place with 1,039 votes. He had said repeatedly that if he didn't finish in the top two his campaign was likely to end. He left the event before the results were announced, and there was no announcement from his campaign.

The missing big names got only a handful of votes.

Former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee got 203 votes. He was on the ballot, although not an officially declared candidate.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani received 183 votes and Sen. John McCain of Arizona got 101.

Romney claimed the prize he had spent so much effort to win.

"The people of this great state have sent a message to the rest of the country," said Romney. "Change starts in Iowa."

Huckabee said his showing was impressive because he had little money to spend.

"You have taken a minimum amount of resources and made a maximum amount of gain," Huckabee told backers.

The Boston Globe nearly follows the Fox report but notes the rest of the field not considered to have much of a chance. It picks up where Fox left off.

Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo has made illegal immigration his signature issue, and scored a fourth place showing with 1,961 voltes, while Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who has developed an Internet-driven following, came in fifth with 1,305 votes.

Filling out the field, Rep. Duncan Hunter got 174 votes, while Chicago businessman John Cox got 41 votes.

The Iowa Straw Poll may help flagging candidacies, but it will have little effect on the front runners. What will have more of an effect is the jockeying among the various states to see who can jump to the head of the line in the primary season. We're lurching towards a 2007 start to the primaries, given the rate at which states are trying to beat out Iowa and New Hampshire, which have historically led the way in primary season.

Testing the Waters

It's all over but the pre-mortems. Rudy Giuliani, the former New York City mayor, is going to run for President.

The former mayor filed papers to create the Rudy Giuliani Presidential Exploratory Committee, Inc., establishing a New York-based panel that would allow him to raise money to explore a White House run and travel the country.

The four-page filing, obtained by The Associated Press, lists the purpose of the non-profit corporation "to conduct federal 'testing the waters' activity under the Federal Election Campaign Act for Rudy Giuliani."

The paperwork, dated last Friday, is signed by Bobby Burchfield, a partner at the DC-based law firm of McDermott Will & Emery, a firm that handles political work.

Giuliani spokeswoman Sunny Mindel declined to comment.

One potential rival for the GOP nomination, Sen. John McCain (news, bio, voting record) of Arizona, said Sunday he was taking the initial step of setting up an exploratory committee.

GOP conservatives might hold their noses over Rudy's social positions, but they like most of the rest of the country know that he knows a thing or two about security and law and order. The field is expected to grow even more:

The GOP field is expected to grow with Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Sen. Bill Frist (news, bio, voting record) of Tennessee, Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and New York Gov. George Pataki expected to join the presidential fray.

Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack of Iowa has filed to establish a full-blown campaign committee and will make a more formal announcement of his candidacy later this month.

Of that group, Pataki is probably the worst possible potential candidate and shouldn't even be in the pool. He has few accomplishments to his name as New York continues to have a poor business climate, and his stewardship of the Ground Zero rebuilding is abysmal. That he actually thinks he's got a snowball's chance of winning shows that his political acumen is sorely lacking. The New York State GOP is in shambles and he's done little to cultivate new candidates for statewide positions. He also can't hold a candle to Rudy, and both share similar social positions.

Rudy's biggest impediment is his social positions; he's for gun control, same-sex civil unions, embryonic stem-cell research and abortion rights, which would hamper his ability to get the nomination but would be an asset in the general elections. Potential VP material if he doesn't get the nomination.

However, if you think that the big issue is the war on terror and national security, it's his stance on national security and public persona as a man who can handle the pressures with grace and dignity that are quite attractive going forward.