Thursday, January 03, 2008

Game On: Iowa Caucuses Underway

I'm sticking with my earlier predictions for the outcome in Iowa. If they come true, great. If not, it's on to New Hampshire. The same may not be said for those candidates whose fortunes depend on a good showing in Iowa.

That includes Bill Richardson, whose supporters might throw in with Obama if only to thwart Hillary. Similarly, Joe Biden is looking to stay ahead of Richardson.

CSPAN has a running tab on the events in Iowa for those so inclined to follow every ounce of coverage.

Hot Air has an open thread devoted to the caucus coverage. Others blogging include Michelle Malkin, Dan Riehl, and Junkyard Blog.

As of 9pm, Drudge is reporting the following:
Obama 33.20; Edwards 32.09; Clinton 31.77
WINNER: Huckabee 33!; Romney 24 McCain 11 Paul 0; Thompson 17 Giuliani 0
With heavy turnout, things could still change.

So far, it looks like I've got the Democrats figured, but got Huckabee and Romney flipped for the GOP with McCain and Thompson flipped as well. However, Rudy and Ron Paul have failed to muster any votes at this stage.

New numbers from Drudge:
Obama 33.93; Edwards 31.83; Clinton 31.56
Huckabee 35; Romney 24; Thompson 14; McCain 12
Things are tightening up for Thompson and McCain, while things look about the same for the Democrats.

Via Patrick Ruffini (a great source for all things politics), Richardson's campaign is denying that any deals were done.

It's interesting to see how much money the candidates have spent - both in Iowa and nationally. Huckabee's folks told ABC that he's has spent all of $5 million nationally, with $1 million in Iowa. All of his eggs are in one basket. In contrast, they suppose that Romney has spent $90 million nationally, and $15 in Iowa. Rudy, who is waiting until the later primaries may have spent $75 million nationally.

ABC has primary results coming in as well, and they've got Huckabee comfortably winning and Obama pulling away to win 35% of the vote and Hillary and Edwards are in a statistical dead heat with 30% each. Richardson, Biden, and the rest of the gang barely register. For the GOP, it looks like Ron Paul will stick around a little while longer, losing out to Rudy by a few hundred votes (despite the fact that Rudy wasn't even actively campaigning in Iowa).

As of 9:30, looks like Ron Paul has taken a huge lead on Rudy for fifth place.

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