Monday, January 18, 2010

Massachusetts Goes To The Polls Tomorrow

Massachusetts goes to the poll tomorrow to determine who will fill the seat formerly held by Sen. Ted Kennedy. Democrat Martha Coakley is hoping to retain the seat for Democrats, while Scott Brown has managed to not only hold his advantage but he's managed to take a lead in the final polling before the election tomorrow.

Nate Silver has the Senate race leaning to Brown with just hours to go before the polls open.
The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecasting Model, which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG, Research 2000 and InsiderAdvantage which show worsening numbers for Brown's opponent, Martha Coakley. We have traditionally categorized races in which one side has between a 60 and 80 percent chance of winning as "leaning" toward that candidate, and so that is how we categorize this race now: Lean GOP.
The anger and populist argument isn't sufficient to win over a state like Massachusetts where the state is overwhelming Democrat. Coakley has run an awful campaign and even the last minute trip by President Obama isn't likely to overcome the mess left by the State Democratic party who figured that things would be a cakewalk.

I've read some folks saying that this is a referendum on the health care plan, which would be quite something if the seat held by the former champion of such reform, Ted Kennedy goes to the candidate whose election would thwart a filibuster proof majority in the Senate and increase the chances that a health care deal doesn't get done. In fact, the Congressional Democrats are looking at ways to circumvent that particular outcome to pass health care reform even if Brown wins.

Yet, I think this is all going to boil down to a turnout-related outcome. If the weather cooperates, the Democrats may pull this out yet. If not, then the GOP may get it done.

No comments: