Iranian Turmoil Continues

Various sources like Twitter continue to be a font of information and disinformation, so take reports with a grain of salt. There's quite a bit of rumors floating about, and hard news is harder to come upon.

Still, Twitter is an invaluable resource since the Iranian regime has attempted to thwart all news access and block attempts for the rest of the world to learn of what is going on inside the country.

Ahmadinejad's thugs are busy with their propaganda efforts, and it appears that they may have engaged in fauxtography, increasing the size of crowds to inflate their numbers in comparison to the strong showing by Mirhussein Mousavi's supporters. (Via the Guardian, which has running updates). Here's another photo that shows a state-supported rally backing Ahmadinejad, and it's considerable in size.

The online arena is another aspect of the conflict growing inside Iran, and the Iranian military is targeting websites and bloggers.

Meanwhile, Iranian leaders have arrested two elections officials who sent around an "official" letter claiming that Mousavi won the election. The authenticity of that letter isn't clear, but that only adds to the confusion surrounding the election results:

An Iranian news website reported that two suspects, who are believed to be behind the letter's distribution, have been arrested. The conservative website claimed that the two also handed out copies of the letter on board Tehran's train.

Apart from the "odd and absurd" data contained in the letter, said the site, the document lacks a serial number and does not bear the minister's signature.

The letter is said to contain the allegedly true results of the presidential elections, which protesters claim were widely forged. According to the document, Mousavi is the real winner of the elections with 19 million votes, reformist candidate Mehdi Karoubi came second with 13 million votes and President Ahmadinejad only came third with 5.6 million votes. The second conservative nominee, Mohsen Rezai got only 3.7 million votes, the document stated.

The protests continue around the country, and there are reports that some prosecutors are threatening the death penalty against those leading the demonstrations. They're looking to blame the unrest on foreigners:

Security forces arrested a pro-reform activist and an editor on Wednesday while a provincial prosecutor warned that those causing unrest faced the death penalty. An official inquiry was launched into an attack on university students.

Tens of thousands of pro-Mousavi supporters defied authorities to rally in Tehran on Tuesday after the seven were killed in Monday's violence but international media were forbidden from leaving their offices to cover the event.

After Monday's deaths, Mousavi had urged followers to call off a planned rally in the same downtown area on Tuesday so the marchers headed north instead. Some sent messages to meet again on Wednesday for a rally at Tehran's central Haft-e Tir Square.

Pro-Mousavi protests have been reported in the cities of Rasht, Orumiyeh, Zanjan, Zahedan, and Tabriz. ISNA news agency said 88 people were arrested during post-election unrest in the city of Mashhad and up to 60 people in the city of Tabriz.

Mohammadreza Habibi, prosecutor-general in Isfahan province, said: "We warn the few ... controlled by foreigners who try to disrupt domestic security by inciting individuals to destroy and to commit arson that the Islamic penal code for such individuals waging war against God is execution."

A reformist source said Saeed Laylaz, editor of business daily Sarmayeh, and activist Mohammadreza Jalaiepour were both arrested on Wednesday. Jalaiepour was detained at Tehran's international airport, the source said.

Keep in mind that the Iranian regime has arrested Iranian-Americans in the past, including the Alaei brothers (doctors who work to reduce the spread of AIDS), and journalist Roxana Saberi, all of whom were charged with actions against the state. Saberi was released, but the Alaei brothers remain in Iranian custody. Watch for the regime to continue linking the demonstrations to foreign elements. It's far easier for a regime to do that than acknowledge that the demonstrations and unrest is due to the regime throwing the election.

Also note that the prosecutors are claiming that the demonstrators and those who engage in violence are waging war against God. They're trying to impose their religious authority and supremacy, and the Iranian people are having none of it.

Twitter and other outlets have enabled photos of the violence against Mousavi's supporters to be sent around the world, and the protests in places like Dubai, Paris, Vienna (and here), Berlin, and Frankfurt have used them to further their cause.

UPDATE:
More video:



This video shows protesters torching what is claimed to be a police station and gunfire can be heard in the background:


UPDATE:
This point cannot be stressed enough. Mousavi isn't necessarily better than Ahmadinejad, but these protests have the potential to go beyond Mousavi and get at real reform - and ending the Islamic regime altogether. The mullahs are doing whatever they can to suppress the demonstrations precisely because they see their power being challenged.

It also presents difficulties for the Obama Administration, since they were more than willing to have open talks with the Ahmadinejad regime and it appears that the facade of legitimacy of the regime has fallen by the wayside and with it Obama's foreign policy agenda regarding Iran.

UPDATE:
Mousavi is now calling for mass demonstrations tomorrow, despite warnings from the regime that there will be crackdowns. Things are coming to a head quickly.

Demonstrations continue in Tehran, and there's reports that 500,000 are marching towards Vali Asr Square.

Reports via Twitter also suggest that some of the police and basiji are turning and supporting the demonstrators.

UPDATE:
Richard Fernandez on Iran:

The reorientation of the IRGC mission to face internal threats is a tacit admission of political weakness. Contrary to the narrative that Iran has been strengthened by the events of recent years, it is strongly suggestive that the opposite is true. And now that the internal threat has actually materialized, the Obama administration should ask itself whether it is wise public policy to throw a regime racked by internal dissention and possibly collapsing upon itself the lifeline of “engagement”; whether it is opportune to give it international legitimacy and remove the sanctions at a time when it is beating itself up. In others words, the administration must ask whether it makes any sense to ring the bell just as Teheran is on the ropes. Following the lead of Kim Jong Il can be described as an act of dialogue without precondition, or it may simply be stupidity without precedent.

UPDATE:
At least 30 districts had voting totals that exceeded 100%. Yeah, I'll say someone screwed up rigging the election.

At least 200 polling stations across Iran had participation rates of 95% or above, say sources of centrist Auyandeh site

Turnouts of more than 100% were recorded in at least 30 Iranian towns in last week's disputed presidential election, opposition sources have claimed.

In the most specific allegations of rigging yet to emerge, the centrist Ayandeh website – which stayed neutral during the campaign – reported that 26 provinces across the country showed participation figures so high they were either hitherto unheard of in democratic elections or in excess of the number of registered electors.

Taft, a town in the central province of Yazd, had a turnout of 141%, the site said, quoting an unnamed "political expert". Kouhrang, in Chahar Mahaal Bakhtiari province, recorded a 132% turnout while Chadegan, in Isfahan province, had 120%.

UPDATE:
It looks like a schism has developed among the mullahs. There are now two factions fighting for control, the one backing Ahmadinejad, and the other is backing Mousavi. Those backing Mousavi do not have the IRGC at their beck and call, since Ahmadinejad has put his cronies in positions of power throughout the Iranian political structure, and his faction, which appears to include Khamenei is seeking to pursue an even more confrontational and aggressive agenda internationally. It's what this NY Times op-ed calls a silent revolution, which has moved the regime away from theocracy to a military dictatorship.

JUST after Iran’s rigged elections last week, with hundreds of thousands of protesters taking to the streets, it looked as if a new revolution was in the offing. Five days later, the uprising is little more than a symbolic protest, crushed by the elite Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Meanwhile, the real revolution has gone unnoticed: the guard has effected a silent coup d’état.

The seeds of this coup were planted four years ago with the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. And while he has since disappointed his public, failing to deliver on promised economic and political reforms, his allies now control the country. In the most dramatic turnabout since the 1979 revolution, Iran has evolved from theocratic state to military dictatorship.

UPDATE:
There have been rumors over the past few days that Ahmadinejad has brought in ringers from Lebanon and Gaza to supplement his IRGC, in particular Hizbullah. Now, there are reports that Hamas thugs have been brought in, and the Iranians have taken note - Iranians can tell when someone doesn't speak their language. It's too soon to tell if that's indeed the case, but it bears watching that Ahmadinejad doesn't trust his IRGC to do the job of controlling the situation, that he was forced to bring in thugs from Gaza.

I'm sure that will sit well with Iranians. It's yet another sign of how tied together Ahmadinejad is with the jihadis of Hamas and Hizbullah, and that they are little more than proxy armies for the Iranian regime.