Weather Favors the Pirates

Weather patterns over the next few weeks will favor the pirates, who continue attacking shipping off the coast of Somalia. Light winds and favorable sea conditions might be good sailing conditions, but they aid the pirates who have smaller speedboats.

The pirates have been using armed, small speedboats to attack the large vessels. For obvious reasons, large waves would greatly hinder these tactics. The current, seasonable weather pattern favors generally clear skies and waves generally of 3 to 5 feet or less. There are no big storm systems in the northern Indian Ocean to general large waves and swells. Only spotty thunderstorms will occur along the immediate coast from Mogadishu northward in Somalia. More unsettled conditions and building seas will be found farther south toward Kenya. No rain and nearly cloudless skies are expected around Arabia and the Gulf of Aden.

A new moon is in store later this week. While the nearly unrestricted visibility by day may be a draw as far as who benefits, little or no moonlight for the next 10 to 14 days will not aid those keeping watch at night aboard merchant vessels. The pirate boats are not illuminated, while the large ships must be lit to avoid collision with other vessels in the vicinity.

Later in May and in June, seas will typically build in the region as the southerly flow picks up. The moist flow also allows thunderstorms to propagate northward to a certain point. Until then, the merchant marine sailors operating in the area will have to keep a watchful eye.

Meanwhile, The Atlantic does a disservice by claiming that the Ethiopian government, backed by the US, overthrew the one functioning government that Somalia has had in two decades. The Islamists were not the legitimate government, and the ICU and their compatriots are busy engaging in piracy, not acting like coast guardsmen.

They are attacking any and all shipping that comes even remotely close to Somalia - some of the attacks have been several hundred miles from the Somali coast. Then, there's this:

Thanks to the high-profile rescue and the courageous tale of the Alabama’s captain and crew, however, the world is paying attention now. Last week, Hillary Clinton unveiled several new anti-pirate initiatives, which include proposals for freezing pirate assets, arrangements to work with 30 nations on international maritime protection, and, most importantly, new plans to address the glaring chaos of Somalia—Finally.

Secretary Clinton also spoke of the need to take Somalia’s new Prime Minister, Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed—one of the leading Islamists who fled the U.S.-backed invasion by Ethiopia nearly three years ago—very seriously. Paradoxically, the Islamists led by Sheikh Ahmed, are the only leaders who have effectively banned piracy ever—during their six months in power in 2006. Under the Islamist’s watch, piracy stopped almost completely. Now, heading back into power after nearly three years of bloody insurgency, the Islamists are ready to take on the pirates again. In the past few days, the Islamists leading Somalia’s transitional government have announced that piracy is a crime against Islam and punishable by death.

The ICU has been busy marauding all over Somalia and imposing Sharia and there have been several attacks since the ICU suddenly announced that piracy is a crime. The ICU is making much of a show of their claim that piracy is suddenly a crime against Islam, when these people have been pushing piracy for years on end.

The ICU has no interest in stopping the piracy - only getting the attention off their own actions.

There is going to be a meeting next month to deal with the piracy issue, led by the US and Secretary of State Clinton. Unless the meeting includes a consistent policy on how to deal with the pirates captured on the high seas and taking action against the militias and the black market that supports and feeds off the piracy, the situation will continue. The Bush Administration had coordinated the response, but that approach clearly has not contained or solved the situation.

At the same time, Kenya is contemplating hosting a piracy tribunal. That makes a slightly improved situation to the haphazard manner in which pirates are dealt with now. In fact, the current situation can best be described as utter chaos as some pirates are simply detained and released, while others are captured and may be held for trial in the US.

UPDATE:
Case in point. Yet another attack. Pirates opened fire on a cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden. Another group of pirates released a ship containing humanitarian aid after receiving a $100,000 ransom, which was euphemistically called a "reward."