More Questions Than Answers In Russian Sub Accident

Many of the questions I raised yesterday at the news of the serious accident aboard a Russian sub, the RFS Nerpa, undergoing sea trials are now being raised by the media and the Russian authorities.

The accident happened on Saturday off the Russian coast in the Sea of Japan, where the submarine was being tested before it was due to be leased to the Indian navy for a contract reportedly worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

"The preliminary official version is the irregular functioning of the fire extinguishing system," Sergei Lelyukhin, a local government official, told AFP after investigators met in Bolshoi Kamen on Monday.

In as-yet unexplained circumstances, toxic freon gas was automatically pumped into the front section of the submarine after a fire alarm was triggered. Personnel in that section were starved of oxygen, officials said.

"There are 21 people currently being treated in hospital. The rest of the crew are being examined," Alexander Kostenko, deputy governor of Primorsky Krai, said on Channel One television.

Russian newspapers said the submarine was only intended for a crew of 73 and that there were 208 people on board during the tests. The Kommersant daily quoted navy personnel saying there may not have been enough oxygen masks.

Kommersant also quoted a shipbuilding industry source commenting on the status of the leasing contract to India, which the newspaper said was worth at least 650 million dollars (507 million euros).

"The submarine won't have significant damage after the accident. India's reaction to the incident is another thing, especially since its completion has been delayed at least twice," the source was quoted as saying.

How come there were so many people on board the submarine? Did they all have access to rescue apparatus that might have saved their lives once the fire suppression equipment was triggered? What triggered the release? Was it human error? Was it a manufacturing defect or design defect?

Also, what is the Indian government going to do in light of this serious accident on board the submarine that was set to be transitioned to the Indian Navy? The Indian government was to lease the Nerpa for 10 years under a then secret deal for $650 million. The project had been delayed at least twice, and this will no doubt further delay the sub entering service. There were no Indian sailors on board the sub at the time of the accident, although Indian sailors had been training at Russian facilities for several years in anticipation of the sub entering Indian service. Russia and India have made several other defense related deals, in addition to the sub:

The sea trials of Nerpa, christened INS Chakra by India, had been launched only last month. Though its construction at Amur Shipyard had begun way back in 1991, it was halted midway after Russia was hit by a financial crisis.

It was only after India pumped in money that Nerpa's construction had resumed, with the understanding that India would get the submarine on a 10-year lease. Interestingly, in January 2004, India had also signed the $1.5billion package deal with Russia for refit of decommissioned aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov and 16 MiG-29K fighters.

But with the package deal now being renegotiated, India might well have to pay another $2billion to get Gorshkov by 2012, with some indications that a part of huge cost escalation could be linked to Russia demanding more for Nerpa over the initial $650million.

Russia might not be in a great bargaining position with India given that they might have damaged goods on their hands. There's a real good reason why the Russians want to find blame with human error because if it was a design or manufacturing defect, there's no way that the Indian government would want to accept the sub with such a problem (or problems if there are still other undiscovered issues with the sub).