Gustav Makes Landfall

The storm's center is still offshore, but the strong winds and heavy rains are already pelting the Louisiana coastline, but as a Category 3 storm. Even that is somewhat misleading since the storm became quite disorganized as it approached the coast. Upper level air currents basically cut apart the eyewall and weakened the storm as it approached the coast. No eyewall was reported by the Hurricane Hunter flights. While the NHC is calling this a category 3 storm, Brendan Loy thinks that it's maxed out as a category 2 storm. Such is the problems of predicting these storms - both for their track and intensity.

New Orleans appears to have dodged the bullet for the moment, although flooding remains a serious threat, both in New Orleans and the surrounding region from heavy rains.

The Army Corps of Engineers says that they don't expect any storm surge flooding from Gustav, although they do expect localized flooding from heavy rains. They're also monitoring the conditions on the Industrial Canal.

There are power outages, but pump stations report that they're online and operating or ready to operate if needed.

The winds are whipping up the waters on Lake Pontchartrain, but so far no flooding is evident. 100 mph winds and a five-foot storm surge were reported on Grand Isle.

Tornado warnings are up for areas of Louisiana including Slidell.

UPDATE:
Gustav has officially been downgraded to cat 2. Winds are still dangerous and heavy rains continue to pound the Gulf Coast, but it looks like Louisiana dodged a bullet.

UPDATE:
Oil prices are falling due to easing concerns over Gustav's weakened condition.

Crude oil for October delivery fell as much as $3.01, or 2.6 percent, to $112.45 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, and traded at $113.19 at 2:32 p.m. London time. It earlier rose as much as 2.2 percent to $118.

Gulf Coast refineries have cut at least 1.56 million barrels a day of production, about 9.8 percent of the U.S. total. Gustav, packing winds of 115 miles an hour (240 kilometers an hour) was 85 miles south of New Orleans at 6 a.m. Miami time, according to the National Hurricane Center.

UPDATE:
FEMA is issuing a dire warning that some levees will be overtopped causing flooding in New Orleans.

UPDATE:
While many in the media are focusing on the winds and trees bending before the wind, I'm more concerned about the situation with the levees. As posted directly above, FEMA warned that some of the levees may be overtopped by the storm surge. This remains a bone of contention with Katrina, since the levees were destroyed not by overtopping, but by seepage. The levees failed to contain the water because water came through the levees due to design failures and weaknesses in the structures, not because there was too much water.

The same situation could end up repeating itself this time, though I hope not. The Army Corps has been trying to improve the levees for the past three years, but has run into the same problems - seepage and the possibility that levees that survived may have been weakened from Katrina and fail under the duress of a future storm (including Gustav). It was the Army Corps failures over prior decades that led to the flooding of New Orleans, not Katrina's wrath. Seepage doomed New Orleans during Katrina, not overtopping - and we can go to the video tape for proof:

UPDATE:
Fox News is reporting that levees in the 9th Ward have been overtopped. Waiting for confirmation on that, but here are various DOT cameras showing conditions in and around NOLA. Some camera locations have been disabled for one reason or another, but those that are active show heavy rains and no vehicles present. Additional webcams are here.

Several boats have come loose in the Industrial Canal, but no signs of damage there.

There are photos showing that some of the levees are being pushed to the brink by the windswept waves.

UPDATE:
Flooding reported at Industrial Canal - overtopping, but not considered dangerous given that this section was reinforced with splash pads to reduce scour due to overtopping.

UPDATE:
Brendan Loy has still more. The storm has come ashore near Houma, and the storm appears to a bit more organized than earlier in the day. The levees should be able to hold, but that's what everyone thought when Katrina came ashore. He also offers the following advice:

With regard to the statement that Gustav is “turning out to be far less than what was previously forecast,” that’s not really fair, IMHO; “previously feared” would be more accurate. The official forecast in recent days has consistently called for something less than a worst-case catastrophe, but it was way too close for comfort, and there were plausible alternative scenarios whereby Gustav would be a calamity. The contemporaneous plausibility of these calamitous scenarios is not retroactively invalidated by the fact that, thankfully, a different scenario has occurred — indeed, a scenario more friendly to New Orleans than anyone dared hope Saturday night, when Gustav was a 150 mph monster that seemed destined to get stronger.

It is crucial that blogospheric and journalistic snark not take hold here. We must not use 20/20 hindsight to dismiss Gustav as having been naught but hype. There are, and will continue to be, plentiful examples of ridiculous media overhype, and those are deeply unfortunate. But the media always misbehaves, and not just with regard to weather. Cable news is buffoonish. This should surprise no one. What matters, though, is this: the forecasts were not “hype,” and the evacuations were not “hype.” Gustav had the legitimate potential to be far worse than this, and decisions had to be made at a time when we could not depend on the more favorable scenario that has instead occurred.

UPDATE:
Still seeing some overtopping on the Industrial Canal, and some people, who I think are foolish for sticking around so close to the levees, can be seen wandering around. More photos here.

UPDATE:
Waters still lapping at the Industrial Canal in NOLA. This photo gives you some idea of what kind of water levels are present - the flood walls are keeping water out of some areas, but behind the walls, structures are getting flooded out:

VIDEO: Water laps over Industrial Canal

The Army Corps has been using hesco baskets to supplement the flood walls along the Industrial Canal.

Meanwhile, Plaquemines Parish is finding its levees overtopped and flooding is occurring.

Parish President Billy Nungesser said that the Braithwaite Levee is overtopping and that any residents that are staying there need to get out now.

In an urgent message, he said that officials are sandbagging, but he doesn't think that officials can stop the water. Nungesser said that people in White Ditch, Scarsdale and other area towns needed to evacuate immediately.

750,000 people are without power in Louisiana.

UPDATE:
Shame on MSNBC for giving hurricane party-goers any kind of press. These people put themselves deliberately in harm's way and would have required rescue had the levees failed or the storm been more intense than predicted. All this does is give people a false sense of security in thinking that they too might make the press if they do the same stupid things in advance of an oncoming hurricane.

Meanwhile, MSNBC does manage to report that the worst damage from Gustav occurred outside New Orleans, but up and down the Louisiana coastline.