The Iranian Paper Tiger

Iran has been making continual announcements about new military capabilities for years, and yet the actual results are far less groundbreaking and sometimes border on the laughable. They've been reporting the design and development of new home-grown submarines for years, including one this past week.

Consider the fact that their propagandists will actually use photos of US aircraft to accompany stories about Iranian military capabilities. They will photo edit failures and have done so repeatedly (and here). They will claim that they've got aircraft with tremendous new capabilities. The Iranians will announce that they've developed new weapons with capabilities never before seen. Of course, you never actually do see those weapons, because it would reveal that they are recycled photos or videos, or that they don't actually exist.

Today, Strategy Page has done additional analysis. It boils down to the fact that the Iranians are experts on bluster, and while their capabilities are far less, should they obtain the claimed capabilities the Iranians will act decisively. Thus far, the Iranians have managed to get what they want through bluster and via their proxy terrorists in Hizbullah, so they'll continue with the bluster:

All this hype is nothing new. It's been going on for years. If you go back and look at the many Iranian announcements of newly developed, high tech, weapons, all you find is a photo op for a prototype, if that. Production versions of these weapons rarely show up. Iranians know that, while the clerics and politicians talk a tough game, they rarely do anything. Even Iranian support of Islamic terrorism has been far less effective than the rhetoric. The Iranians have always been cautious, which is one reason Arabs fear them. When the Iranians do make their move, it tends to be decisive. But at the moment, the Iranians have no means to make a decisive move. Their military is mostly myth, having been run down by decades of sanctions, and the disruptions of the 1980s war with Iraq. Their most effective weapon is bluster, and, so far, it appears to be working.

But the Iranians know that nuclear weapons would make their bluff and bluster even more muscular. Even the suspicion that they had nukes would be beneficial. And that appears to be the current plan. One new weapon the Iranians do put a lot of money and effort into are ballistic missiles. They are building an extended range (from 1,300 to 1,800 kilometer) version of their Shahab 3 ballistic missile. The new version puts all of Israel within range, even if fired from deep inside Iran. Chemical warheads (with nerve gas) are thought to be available for these missiles. But Israel has threatened to reply with nuclear weapons if the Iranians attack this way. Iran would probably get the worst of such an exchange, and the Iranians are aware of it.

Not all of the clerics that run the country are eager to go to war with Israel, or even threaten it. But because the clerical factions do not want to appear at odds with each other in public, the more radical leaders are allowed to rant away about attacking Israel. That's also the thinking behind the many IRGC press conferences announcing imaginary new weapons. The clerics are not going spend billions on mass production of second rate systems that are most notable for being designed in Iran, and not much else.

While the analysis is good, Strategy Page doesn't take into account the distinct possibility that the Iranian regime, led by Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, would initiate a war with Israel with WMD (whether chemical or nuclear weapons) so as to fulfill religious visions and prophesies.

Iran uses these pronouncements of new weapons systems to divert attention from their ongoing plans to obtain nuclear weapons. Iran is well on its way to having the technology to produce nuclear weapons in short order as the IR-2 centrifuges continue running and technical problems appear to have been worked out.

Such technology does change the nature of the bluster from mere rhetoric to something far more dangerous.