Saturday, July 19, 2008

Hizbullah Signals Its Intentions

Hizbullah is busy signaling its future intentions, but is anyone in Lebanon or Israel paying attention?

Following their major victory in securing the release of terrorist Samir Kuntar, four other terrorists, and hundreds of dead Hizbullah, in exchange for the remains of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev, Hizbullah says that they're considering additional abductions - invasions of Israel to capture Israelis for use as bargaining chips.

Don't say you hadn't been warned.

Israel knew, or should have known, that Hizbullah would see that their strategy worked and would keep that open again in the future. Hizbullah will strike at a time and place of their choosing.

Far from improving Israel's security posture, the swap undermines it.

Lebanon, aka Hizbullahland, continues to see Hizbullah dominate more and more areas.
The decision to build infrastructure in non-Shi'ite villages - where Hizbullah has less support - is part of the group's post-war strategy under which it has mostly abandoned the "nature reserves," forested areas in southern Lebanon where it kept most of its Katyusha rocket launchers before the Second Lebanon War.

Behind the change is the mandate given to UNIFIL by the United Nations after the war in 2006. According to the mandate, the peacekeeping force can patrol freely throughout southern Lebanon but cannot enter villages or cities without being accompanied by soldiers from the Lebanese Armed Forces, which regularly tips off Hizbullah ahead of the raids.
Hizbullah swept into power and holds a veto over anything the Lebanese government does. They can openly operate despite UNIFIL's orders to disband all militias, including Hizbullah.

Hizbullah is clearly looking to the future, and to a time when it will be able to launch yet another war against Israel.

No comments: