Preconditional Diplomacy

It's been revealed and admitted by all involved, that Syria and Israel are engaged in peace talks. I can't say that I'm surprised as there have been rumblings of diplomatic overtures for months and that these talks have been conducted through Turkey as an intermediary. All that makes perfect sense as backchannel negotiations often occur even among the most determined of enemies to feel out positions and weakness.

In this case, talks between Israel and Syria makes sense for Israeli Prime Minister Olmert, who is absolutely craving some kind of diplomatic achievement of any sort so that he can remain in power just a while longer, even as the criminal investigations continue probing his conduct and he does little to stem the rocket war from Gaza. He's supposed to give a speech on the matter later today.

Olmert needs the diplomatic achievement. Israel needs security, and most Israelis know that holding the Golan has deterred Syrian actions in the past and provided a buffer even in 1973. For its part, the Israelis say that they have not agreed to a return of the Golan, but that's perhaps a matter of semantics and a matter of time.


Shas, which had claimed that they'd quit the government if the status of Jerusalem came up in talks with the PA, should finally put their money where their collective mouth is and quit the government over Olmert trying to cede control over the Golan to Syria, which continues to be a state sponsor of terrorism - harboring Hizbullah and Hamas terror masters, and which acts as a conduit for weapons, equipment, and personnel to the terror organizations in the region. Likud is also rightfully angry, wondering whether the announcement is timed to take the pressure off Olmert personally. Other members of the Knesset aren't mincing their words either. Yisrael Beitenu has filed a motion of no confidence in the Knesset.

What Syria gains is far more curious. Syria clearly would seek the return of the Golan Heights and all the strategic and tactical implications that brings, but it would incur the wrath of Hamas, Hizbullah, and Iran in return. Would Assad risk that? Even if it means that Syria would open its markets to US and Western support? I doubt it. The Syrians claim that the Israelis have already agreed to cede the Golan. Nothing like watching the Syrians play games with the media to put even more pressure on Israel to cede territory captured in wars to defend itself from annihilation.

The Golan was captured by Israel in 1967 after Syria used the Heights to bombard Northern Israel incessantly - much as Hamas and the terrorists now fire on Southern Israel from Gaza (and again today). The Heights are also the headwaters of the Jordan River, which supplies much of Israel and Jordan with their potable water for crops and consumption. Due to increased consumption, so little water reaches the Dead Sea via the Jordan River, that the Dead Sea has shrunk to a fraction of its former size.

Carl in Jerusalem and Ed Morrissey has much more.

UPDATE:
One other thing to keep in mind. There has been peace between Israel and Syria since 1973's cease fire ending the Yom Kippur War. Israeli and Syrian forces have not directly fought each other since, and that lack of war would be considered peace by some quarters (and yes, I'm purposefully not including the use of proxy armies in this calculation). Olmert thinks that returning territory will somehow improve Israel's security posture by getting verbal assurances to stop support for Syria's proxy forces in Hamas and Hizbullah in return?

The world keeps clamoring for Israel to return territory for the sake of peace, but where are such calls when Syria is engaging in a veritable takeover of Lebanon by its Hizbullah minions?