What Can Go Wrong Will

Pakistan is about to go down a path from which its neighbors, the region, and the world at large might come to regret - and in the near future to boot.

The new Pakistani government is pushing a policy that is little more than warmed over appeasement. They're going to enable the jihadis a safe haven from which they can continue operations.

Faced with a sharp escalation of suicide bombings in urban areas, the leaders of Pakistan’s new coalition government say they will negotiate with the militants believed to be orchestrating the attacks, and will use military force only as a last resort.

That talk has alarmed American officials, who fear it reflects a softening stance toward the militants just as President Pervez Musharraf has given the Bush administration a freer hand to strike at militants using pilotless Predator drones.

Many Pakistanis, however, are convinced that the surge in suicide bombings — 17 in the first 10 weeks of 2008 — is retaliation for three Predator strikes since the beginning of the year. The spike in attacks, combined with the crushing defeat of Mr. Musharraf’s party in February parliamentary elections, has brought demands for change in his American-backed policies.

The Pakistanis are being targeted by the jihadis because they're hoping for precisely this kind of outcome. Increase the violence to affect the incoming government to relent and seek appeasement.

It's the same thing that has happened under Musharraf time and time again. Musharraf would engage in appeasement and deals with the Islamists and Taliban operating in the territories adjacent to Afghanistan and it wouldn't take long before those jihadis would attempt to assassinate Musharraf or engage in a bombing campaign. Musharraf would crack down on the jihadis for a time, and then revert to the appeasement method because his forces could never sustain their efforts.

To blame the ongoing violence in Pakistan on the airstrikes that have taken out key al Qaeda and Taliban thugs is misleading at best. The jihadis have been engaging in violence for years, and last year's Lal Masjid siege, not to mention assassination of Benazir Bhutto after a failed attempt murdered more than 130 at a rally, should have revealed the true nature of the Islamists operating in Pakistan, but the media will continue to show a blind eye to the threat until it is too late.

So, what's the deal that we're supposed to rely upon?

In general terms, according to a retired senior Pakistani general who remains close to the current military leadership, new negotiations would be likely to involve a ban on non-Pakistani militants — like Afghans, Uzbeks and Chechens — coming from southern Afghanistan into Pakistan, in return for reduced operations by the Pakistani Army in the tribal areas.

Oh, I'm sure that someone will be patrolling a very porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan demanding passports and turning back all those who fit that profile. Who would be policing the border, if not the Pakistani Army?

This is a return to the days when the territories were essentially autonomous and the Pakistani government in Islamabad had little to no say over what happened there, even though the territories were officially part of Pakistan.