Conundrum in Pakistan

Bill Roggio notes that fighting is intensifying in Swat and neighboring areas. Is Musharraf finally mustering up the courage to take the fight to the Islamists in those areas, including Warizistan and the NWFP that have proven to be safe havens for the Taliban and al Qaeda?

The Pakistani Army is pressing its offensive against Maulana Fazlullah's Taliban forces in the settled district of Swat and Shangla after Fazlullah's fighters took over the two districts by force over the past several weeks. The strikes in Swat and Shangla happen to coincide with US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte's diplomatic visit to Pakistan.

After four days of fighting upwards of 146 Taliban, Pakistani troops, and civilian have been reported killed and over 100 wounded. "The killed included 31 militants and 11 others in district Swat, while 38 militants and more than 35 others were gunned down in district Shangla," The Nation reported. "Militants spokesman Sirajuddin claimed that they had killed almost 25 personnel of security forces," after the Taliban targeted a military convoy.

Sirajuddin confirmed the Pakistani Army killed Commander Matiullah, a senior officer in Fazlullah's command, in an artillery strike. "His Second-in-Command Muhammad Ali was missing feared dead," the Pakistani military stated.

The fighting in Swat includes the Pakistanis massing 15,000 troops (HT: NJDhockeyfan at LGF) for a push through the Valley.

The wildcard in all this (one of all too many), Benazir Bhutto, is back in Karachi, after she was released from house arrest in Lahore.

The US envoy to Pakistan, John Negroponte, sent a strong message to Musharraf to end the emergency rule and get rid of the military uniform. Musharraf declined, saying that the emergency rule was necessary to stabilize the situation in the country.

The visit by the second highest ranking US official to Pakistan is the latest push by the Bush administration to persuade Musharraf to end emergency imposed on November 3, quit as army chief and restore fundamental rights to facilitate free and fair polls.

The US embassy refused to comment on the parleys but Pakistani official sources said Musharraf made it clear that the emergency would be lifted only when the law and order situation improves.

The military ruler emphasised that the step was taken to strengthen the fight against militants and hold the upcoming general election in a peaceful atmosphere, the sources said.

State-run APP news agency said the two leaders discussed "regional and international issues of mutual concern" and the fight against terrorism and militancy".

All this happens with the backdrop of what might happen to Pakistan's nuclear stockpile if elections were held and the Islamists won. Musharraf says that the Army will keep control of the nuclear weapons. The problem is who will control the Army.

As I've been saying for some time now, events in Pakistan have a way of affecting the security situation in Afghanistan. Afghan officials are looking warily at the situation along their border, knowing that the Taliban and al Qaeda are a hop, skip, and jump away from heading back in their direction. They're also concerned that the Pakistani military may try meddling in Afghan affairs once again.