As the 2007 hurricane season comes to a close, just how well did the scientists predict the number of storms and their storm tracks?
Well, here's what I wrote at the top of the 2007 hurricane season.
Tropical Storm Noel is closing in on Haiti, and it is the 14th named storm of the 2007 season.
While that is in the range of those predictions for Atlantic Storms, the overall number of storms for the Northern Hemisphere appears to be headed for one of the lowest totals in the past 30 years.
These charts look at not the number of named storms, but the number of days where there are tropical storm force winds and hurricane force winds. By those measures, the current season is substantially below the 30 year average.
This is the problem with trying to select data points for individual regions - you miss larger patterns or find patterns that aren't there. What was the range for the prior 30 year period and how much data do we have for earlier periods. Those would help round out the amount of information we have about the climate and put these kinds of statistics into context.
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