Grading the Storm Predictions

How many times will this prediction be revised?

An active hurricane season is predicted.

Last year, scientists predicted a very strong hurricane season and it turned out to be just the opposite.

The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season should be "very active," with 17 named storms, a top storms forecaster said Tuesday.

Those named storms are expected to include five intense or major hurricanes, according to forecaster William Gray's team at Colorado State University. Gray said there is a 74 percent probability of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. coast.

The team's forecasts are based on global oceanic and atmospheric conditions.

Last year, Gray's forecast - as well as government forecasts - was higher than what the Atlantic hurricane season produced. Gray's team said the reason was a late El Nino that altered oceanic conditions.

There were nine named Atlantic storms and five hurricanes, two of them major, in 2006. That was considered a "near normal" season. None of those hurricanes hit the U.S. Atlantic coast

This is the part that the article leaves out. Scientists had predicted 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and five major storms (Category 3 or higher). In other words, they predicted nearly double the amount of storms that actually occurred. Throughout the 2006 hurricane season, the scientists continually revised their predictions downward.

This isn't to say that the scientists didn't get some things right. They've gotten better at predicting the path of the storms once they formed. That's important in predicting landfall and issuing warnings and watches for shoreline communities to prepare for the damaging winds, surge, and other storm related damage possible from these storms.

I'll be revisiting this subject from time to time to show just how the meteorologists are doing.