Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Further Speculation on Israeli Airstrike

While we know that something happened in Syria about two weeks ago when Israeli aircraft apparently "dropped ammo" inside Syria, no one is saying. It could have been an airstrike against Syrian nuclear facilities or nuclear materials in transit, but no one is quite saying. That's curious.

More to the point, there isn't much in the way of international reaction or calls against Israel at the UN, which is what one would expect if there had been something there - recall Osirak and the outcry by the parties involved, including the US. That's even more curious. Syria isn't exactly calling for sanctions or other actions against Israel. That's extremely curious. Everyone seems to be unconcerned about what now appears to be Israeli airstrikes against Syria. When Israel fires on Palestinian terrorists, that becomes a matter of international importance and demands for cease fire are proffered.

There's no word on this from the Arab League or anyone else for that matter.

Why would Syria and others remain silent, unless they don't want to bring still more attention to their own illegal activities and those of their associates in the nuclear proliferation game?

Time to put the thinking caps on and examine why this is the case. I can think of two reasons why Syria is staying mum on this - and neither is good for Assad's long term health.

Well, to get the obvious out of the way - Syria was working on a clandestine nuclear program, perhaps with Iranian or North Korean assistance, and the Israelis caught whiff of the project and dealt with it while the threat was still manageable. It also gave the Israelis a run at the Syrian air defense system, which is not unlike the Iranian systems - it was a real world check on how to defeat the latest Russian SAM systems.

If it was not a nuclear facility or nuclear materials in transit, then another possibility is that it involved a meeting of terrorists and their state sponsors. Syria wouldn't want that to become public since they claim to be fighting terrorists, and if Syria was caught red handed, that opens the door to further actions by Israel or the West (including the US).

Making a fuss about the airstrikes would bring unwarranted attention on what Syria was really up to, and Syria's Assad would not be able to avoid what really happened.

Recall also that when the US bombed a pharmaceutical plant in Sudan on the claim that the facility was being used by al Qaeda to make chemical weapons, Khartoum went public with all kinds of evidence showing that it was a factory making baby food.

We have no such reports here.

All in all, this is most curious.

UPDATE:
The WSJ's Bret Stephens wonders about the significance of Israel's silence on the matter. He thinks, based on the scant evidence proffered thus far, that Israel may have engaged in Osirak 2.

No comments: