Turning the Corner In Iraq?

Kenneth Pollack and Michael E. O’Hanlon wrote an op-ed in the New York Times noting with some optimism that the US may have turned the corner in Iraq, and that there are signs that we might be able to achieve a modicum of stability that the US and Iraqis can live with:

Here is the most important thing Americans need to understand: We are finally getting somewhere in Iraq, at least in military terms. As two analysts who have harshly criticized the Bush administration’s miserable handling of Iraq, we were surprised by the gains we saw and the potential to produce not necessarily “victory” but a sustainable stability that both we and the Iraqis could live with.

After the furnace-like heat, the first thing you notice when you land in Baghdad is the morale of our troops. In previous trips to Iraq we often found American troops angry and frustrated — many sensed they had the wrong strategy, were using the wrong tactics and were risking their lives in pursuit of an approach that could not work.

Today, morale is high. The soldiers and marines told us they feel that they now have a superb commander in Gen. David Petraeus; they are confident in his strategy, they see real results, and they feel now they have the numbers needed to make a real difference.

Everywhere, Army and Marine units were focused on securing the Iraqi population, working with Iraqi security units, creating new political and economic arrangements at the local level and providing basic services — electricity, fuel, clean water and sanitation — to the people. Yet in each place, operations had been appropriately tailored to the specific needs of the community. As a result, civilian fatality rates are down roughly a third since the surge began — though they remain very high, underscoring how much more still needs to be done.

In Ramadi, for example, we talked with an outstanding Marine captain whose company was living in harmony in a complex with a (largely Sunni) Iraqi police company and a (largely Shiite) Iraqi Army unit. He and his men had built an Arab-style living room, where he met with the local Sunni sheiks — all formerly allies of Al Qaeda and other jihadist groups — who were now competing to secure his friendship.

In Baghdad’s Ghazaliya neighborhood, which has seen some of the worst sectarian combat, we walked a street slowly coming back to life with stores and shoppers. The Sunni residents were unhappy with the nearby police checkpoint, where Shiite officers reportedly abused them, but they seemed genuinely happy with the American soldiers and a mostly Kurdish Iraqi Army company patrolling the street. The local Sunni militia even had agreed to confine itself to its compound once the Americans and Iraqi units arrived.

So, things may actually be turning around in Iraq. What do the Iraqis intend to do with that knowledge? Well, the Iraqi Parliament intends on going on summer recess until September and will not have addressed several key issues before then, including legislation to share and split oil revenues among different regions and ethnic groups.

So, what could happen in the interim? Here are four possibilities:

1) Parliament goes on its vacation, and not only does the country continue to function at a minimal level, but the violence wanes as the Surge continues to hold. Effect of vacation is minimal and shows that the bureaucractic systems in place are adequate. That would be a good sign.

2) Parliament on vacation and the situation deteriorates, along with increase in US casualties. Effect of vacation could be devastating and the symbolic nature of the vacation shows that the Iraqi government is out of touch - leading to calls within US to hasten departure. This is the worst case scenario.

3) Parliament stays in session and does nothing. Status quo - but no ability for anti-war leftists or other anti-war types to claim that US should leave because Iraqis don't/can't/wont get questions addressed. This is a bad outcomes scenario, but not fatal to ongoing US efforts.

4) Parliament stays in session and gets through some of the tough questions that remain unaddressed. This would be the best possible outcome. I don't see this happening simply because there isn't sufficient consensus on addressing some of those issues. If the oil revenue issue is addressed, that would be a huge accomplishment.

There are also variations on those themes, but all play off the option of Parliament going on vacation or not and whether they're successful or not at tackling issues. Expect the reporting on this recess to claim this as a defeat for the Administration. I'd suggest that you read those reports in light of the aforementioned possible outcomes.

It should also be noted that there was quite a bit of strife and disagreement in the early years of the US - and we had a constitutional convention to repair the Articles of Confederation that resulted in the secret rewrite of the whole shebang into the US constitution, and because that document wasn't sufficient, Amendments were written concurrently for separate ratification by the states - forming the Constitution we see and the original Bill of Rights.

We still engage in tweaking the Constitution from time to time, and this will continue to go on. Expecting every issue to be addressed yesterday and everything to run smoothly on the first try seems naive.

But, this can't hurt - Iraq won the Asian Cup Soccer Tournament. Soccer is huge around the world, and the win brought out Iraqis of all stripes to cheer the win.