Middle East Crisis Roundup

Regional instability starts and stops with Syria and Iran. Those two regimes are the cause of, and solution to, the region's many problems.

While Iran and Syria continue to back the proxy terror groups against Israel and the West, Israel has agreed to a Fatah prisoner release, and Palestinian terrorists with Israeli blood on their hands will not be released. I have said all along I have a real bad feeling about this, but Israel's political class is determined to define its foreign policy on wishful thinking and hope and not the facts as they presently exist.

Thankfully, not all Israelis are caught up in the wishful thinking of diplomacy. Israel is preparing for war, and I hope that they've learned the lessons from the last conflict. Chief among those lessons must be to act decisively and swiftly. Dithering and flip-flops on strategy are a recipe for disaster that Israel can ill-afford.

Fatah has not carried out its obligations under Oslo and there is nothing on which anyone should be able to draw a conclusion that Abbas will do any better now than he was before the elections that swept Hamas into a position of power. Indeed, Abbas may need to turn into Arafat in order to stay in power, let alone remain alive. Arafat remained the face of the Palestinian cause, simply by spreading the wealth around among the thugs who were angling for power.

The prisoner release may buy Abbas more time, but it will not substantively alter the fundamentals of the situation. Fatah is incapable of governing or recognizing Israel's right to coexist alongside a Palestinian state. Hamas refuses to recognize Israel's right to exist other than for purposes of knowing where to send the rockets.

I guess we're supposed to applaud the fact that the Arab League will be visiting Israel for the first time, but considering that they have spent their entire history trying to destroy Israel, and refuse to account for their own actions in extending the Palestinian crisis for decades, I see it as little more than a symbolic act.

And the EU continues to show it is blind to the ongoing problems. They want to cut back their monitors at the Gaza-Egypt crossing, despite the fact that Hamas should not be allowed to gain access to weapons or equipment that could be smuggled across the border. It also highlights why reliance upon foreign countries to provide security for Israel is a fool's bargain. Those countries can have a change of heart and leave Israel in a worse position than before. Israel repeatedly is forced to make concessions, and repeatedly is put in a worse position than if it took no action at all.

Palestinians continue to fire mortars and/or rockets into Israel. That's concrete action. You know where the Palestinians stand on Israel. Meryl Yourish points out that Israeli double standard time (IDST) is alive and well.

Instability in Lebanon continues to be a problem, and no analysis is complete without looking to who is behind it; Syria and Iran. Syria continues to play with fire in Lebanon, and it appears that they're preparing the ground for a conflict in Lebanon over the summer. They were behind the Hariri assassination along with the assassination of other anti-Syrians leaders in Lebanon.

"In the past few days, Arab and Iranian media reports have pointed to the possibility that Lebanon's current political crisis may become a violent conflict after July 15, 2007," the MEMRI dispatch said.

July 15 comes one day before a special UN Security Council meeting which is expected to discuss the possibility of stationing international experts on the Syria-Lebanon border, in order monitor the ongoing illegal cross border arms traffic to Hizbullah, thought to be originating from Iran and Syria.

The UN Security Council is also expected to meet next week to discuss a key report on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, a development which may bode badly for Syria.

"On July 5, 2007, the Iranian news agency IRNA reported that Syrian authorities had instructed all Syrian citizens residing in Lebanon to return to their country by July 15, 2007. The next day, the Israeli Arab daily Al-Sinara similarly reported, on the authority of a Lebanese source close to Damascus, that Syria was planning to remove its citizens from Lebanon. Also on July 5, the Lebanese daily Al-Liwa reported rumors that Syrian workers were leaving Lebanon at the request of the Syrian authorities.

Fatah al Islam continues its war against the Lebanese military, despite the claims by the Lebanese government that they crushed the group's stronghold in Tripoli.

The Lebanese Army resumed heavy shelling of Fatah al-Islam positions inside the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp Sunday afternoon. Intermittent fighting also erupted along the length of the Bared River and around an old railway bridge. The army's artillery targeted the Bustan Zaatar and UNRWA clinics area to the southwest of the camp, as well as the main road and the marketplace. The area around the revolutionary council and Saiqa offices at the southern entrance of the old camp was also shelled.

The army responded to light to medium fire from Fatah al-Islam fighters holed up in what remains of the old camp. Militants continued to fire mortars and snipe at army positions from half-demolished buildings inside the camp.

One reason the Lebanese military isn't letting up on Fatah al Islam is that the group has been implicated in the assassination of Pierre Gamayel.

Lebanese investigators have concluded that al Qaeda-inspired militants killed a Christian Lebanese minister in 2006, a Lebanese newspaper reported on Saturday.

An-Nahar daily said results of the investigation into the Nov. 21 assassination of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel would be made public soon and would show proof against Fatah al-Islam militants.

Lebanese investigators found a car suspected of being used in Gemayel's murder last month during a crackdown against militants across the north, security sources have said. Lebanese sources claim Ahmed Jibril's Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command played a role in the murder.

Indeed, some believe that Syria has already invaded Lebanon and reasserted its control over the border region.