Thursday, May 17, 2007

The Palestinian Authority Death Spiral Watch

So, has the violence in Gaza reached a point where the situation has completely gotten out of control for the PA and that Abbas has lost control? Well, Abbas hasn't exactly been in control of the situation for some time, but Hamas and Fatah have managed to put a veneer that they were able to limit the violence.

That no longer seems to be the case.

This presents a difficult situation for everyone concerned. Hamas wants to dominate the Palestinian polity, and they've got the numbers to do it. Fatah is outmanned and outgunned. With Israel looking on wondering when the next rocket barrage will hit Sderot or Ashkelon, they are simply looking for an end to the terrorism.

Instapundit points out a couple of folks who think that the deteriorating situation will lead to Egypt and Jordan taking on a custodial role in administering Gaza and West Bank respectively.

I think that's fanciful. Instapundit is right to wonder why Egypt or Jordan would want the Palestinians on their plate.

Egypt wanted nothing to do with Gaza when Israel and Egypt agreed to the Camp David accords. They saw the problems that Gaza caused Israel, and the Islamification of Gaza only complicates matters for Egypt. If the Palestinian terrorists continue firing on Israel while Egypt is in administrative control of Gaza, that puts Egypt in a position of having to crack down on the Palestinians - and that means that the Egyptian Islamists might find common cause and engage in terrorism of their own.

The same goes for Jordan, which has had its fill of Palestinian terrorism over the years - including the 1970-71 Black September when the PLO (which includes Fatah) tried to overthrow the Jordanian government and King Hussein decimated the Palestinian thugs ranks and threw the Palestinians out (and who promptly started trouble in Lebanon).

The Egyptians and Jordanians have a long and bloody history when it comes to the Palestinians (and some will suggest that many of the Palestinians are really Egyptians and Jordanians who lived in Gaza and West Bank from 1948-1967). They wanted nothing to do with the problem when they were in control of Gaza and West Bank from 1948 through 1967, and they're not likely to want to reassert control there now.

Hamas threatens more attacks against Israel as Israel engages in yet more airstrikes following Hamas rocket barrages landing in Sderot causing more Israeli injuries.

It's funny to listen to Hamas declare that Israel has declared war on Hamas, while war to annilihate Israel is a fundamental and integral part of the Hamas charter. Defending yourself from terrorist attacks and refusing to die like lambs to the slaughterhouse is declaring war against Hamas in the minds of the Hamas terrorists.

Netenyahu continues to slam the Olmert government for inaction to properly defend Sderot, and he's right - the Olmert policy of ignoring rocket attacks against Israel has undermined Israeli security and Olmert needs to take responsibility for that failure. Meanwhile, Olmert has more pressing concerns, including a terrorist plot to assassinate him and other members of the Knesset:
Palestinian Gaza resident, Massab Bashir, is suspected of planning the assassination of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and other Knesset members, according to an indictment filed against him on Thursday.

Shin Bet and police forces arrested the 25-year-old on 19 April, when he made his latest trip into Israel.

After his arrest in Jerusalem, Bashir confessed to planning the attacks and taking advantage of the entry permit given him for his work with the “Doctors Without Borders” humanitarian organization.

The suspect admitted entering Israel in order to collect personal information on senior officials with the intention of assassinating them. He also said he was collaborating with members of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP).
UPDATE:
At least 22 were killed in fighting between Hamas and Fatah on Wednesday, and there's no sign of a letup.

UPDATE:
Confederate Yankee wonders whether it is time to start calling the situation in Gaza a civil war. The NY Post seems to think that there's a civil war going on as well.

UPDATE:
Another Israeli airstrike - this time against a car carrying Hamas terrorists, killed one and wounded five others. There's also word that Israeli tanks have rolled into Gaza.

UPDATE:
Others keeping tabs on the situation in Gaza: Meryl Yourish (and here), Israelated, Israellycool, and Carl in Jerusalem.

UPDATE:
Hamas and Israel are not trading attacks New York Times. Hamas fires on anything any everything inside Israel. Schools and civilians are fair game. That's who have been bearing the brunt of the rockets fired into Israel by Palestinians from Gaza.

Israel is responding by going after the very terrorists who are responsible for the terrorist attacks - destroying the places they use to plot their attacks, and going after them when they are on the move.

That's not trading attacks, that's called self-defense. Israel would not be engaging in these self defense attacks had Hamas and the other Palestinian terrorists not turned Sderot into a ghost town because of the incessant rocket attacks.

UPDATE:
The IDF took over the airwaves in Gaza, but I think this is a bad idea:
Also, as the air campaign was unleashed the IDF electronically took over several Gaza radio stations, using them to issue a call to Palestinian civilians to flee zones from which Kassam rockets were being launched, Channel 2 quoted Palestinian sources as saying.
No doubt the terrorists also took the messages sent by the IDF and fled the areas that the IAF were targeting. Giving the terrorists advance warning of attacks means that they're able to avoid being wounded or killed when such attacks do happen or they put civilians in harms way. Either way, the Israeli actions are thwarted and cannot accomplish the goal of eliminating the terrorists.

The IAF did hit another terrorist preparing to fire a kassam rocket into Israel though. The problem is that there were more kassams that hit southern Ashkelon and other points inside Israel.

UPDATE:
More rockets have slammed into Sderot, including one that hit the synagogue just minutes after services let out. Meanwhile, Israelis living in Sderot were being evacuated but that stopped - and the residents got more than a little perturbed.
Over 200 people had been at the synagogue only a half an hour prior to the rocket strike, and 20 to the 30 of them were still in the area at the time of the attack, Noam Bedin, director of the Sderot Information Center told the Jerusalem Post.

One person was lightly injured in the attack, and a number of others suffered from shock, Bedin said.

Earlier, fear, panic and bitterness reached the boiling point in Sderot as angry residents burst into the office of Mayor Eli Moyal and demanded to be evacuated from the city.

They wanted to join about 800 others, whom the city had dispatched earlier in the day to a hotel in the center of the country for three nights. The locals were bused out as a relief measure after the southern border city was hit by dozens of Palestinian-launched Kassam rockets fired from Gaza in the last three days; 20 fell yesterday alone.
UPDATE:
Hamas is calling for some Arab peacekeeping force that doesn't even exist to come in and separate Hamas from Fatah?

Now, that's funny.

Hamas starts a war with Fatah, and they want peacekeepers? I guess they figure that they have the advantage but can't press it too much more, so they'll consolidate their gains (such as it is).

Also, this gives the Palestinian terrorists a respite from their ongoing civil war to get back to what they know best - going after Israel.

Oh, and this call for a peacekeeping force comes at the same time as news of an assassination plot to kill Fatah's Abbas is reported.

No comments: