Between the Jaws

Over the past few days there has been increased chatter relating to the possibility of a prisoner swap leading to the release of Gilad Shalit. This would be bad news indeed for the Israelis to even consider.

There is no good reason to release Palestinians captured who have Israeli blood on their hands to secure the release of Shalit, Goldwasser, or Regev. And we learn the following from other terrorist operatives:

Yasser Abed Rabo, a Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine official, said Sunday night that there were still difficulties on Israel's behalf regarding Palestinian prisoners that Israel is to release in exchange for kidnapped IDF soldier Gilad Schalit, Israel Radio reported.

As bad as it is for the families of the three soldiers, swapping those soldiers for Palestinians who will only resume their activities against Israel is not a position Israel wants to take.

It only solidifies the perception that Israel will cave in to terrorist demands after sufficient pressure is exerted. Terrorists will only gain incentives to take yet more hostages, further increasing the possibilities that yet more Israelis will be captured to be held as pawns of even more concessions. It is a vicious cycle, and the only way to avoid the cycle is not to engage in such activities.

One of the names that keeps popping up among the Palestinians that could be slated for a prisoner swap - Marwan Barghouti. I have a real bad feeling about that.

While Hamas leaders have already promised Marwan Barghouti’s family that the former Tanzim leader in the West Bank would be included in a prisoner exchange deal with Israel, some Fatah members would rather see him remain in jail.

Barghouti is at the top of the list of senior prisoners the Palestinian Authority is demanding Israel free in exchange for IDF soldier Gilad Shalit, but some Fatah members fear his release would boost support for rival faction Hamas.

Senior Fatah officials are trying to convince Barghouti’s family to back efforts to release him as part of a more comprehensive deal with Israel for which Hamas does not get all the credit.

There's quite a bit of infighting between Hamas and Fatah over any such deal because they're fighting for credit and credibility over any deal, and if Hamas gets Israel to release Fatah's Barghouti, that would look real bad for Fatah. That actually helps Israel avoid having to make a decision on the prisoner swap, though it seems that the Olmert government is tentatively behind a deal in principle.

At least there are some in the Israeli government who do not want any such deal to go forward. Barghouti is in Israeli prison because he is a convicted murderer serving five life sentences. Knesset Member Uri Ariel has warned that if a deal goes through, it might mean the end of the Olmert government. He's probably right.

There is some question over the number of prisoners involved in a swap. Some reports peg the figure at 1,400 while others are at 1,000 and still others at 500. I get the feeling that no one really knows for sure. Besides, both of those figures have been tossed about going all the way back to the hours and days after Shalit was taken by the Palestinian terrorists in the first place.

Meanwhile, Hizbullah vows to maintain its arms until such time that Nasrallah believes that the Lebanese military is capable of defending itself against Israel. Funny thing is that no military is capable of defending itself against Israel, so this is just another ploy to ignore UN SCR 1701. Nasrallah has no intention of giving up his arms, and the Lebanese military and UNIFIL are incapable of disarming Hizbullah without getting into a full scale conflict that the Lebanese and UNIFIL are ill-prepared to deal with.

The problem is that Israel faces treachery and violence on both its borders with Lebanon and with the territories. Terrorist groups are plotting for a long conflict with Israel using all manner of violence against Israel and will not stop until Israel is destroyed.