Olmert's Explosive Admission

Olmert just announced that Israel is nuclear capable, after decades of Israel's refusal to admit or deny such capabilities.

In an interview with the German television network SAT 1, Olmert was asked about the statement by US defense minister Robert Gates regarding Israel's nuclear ability.

The prime minister became enraged when he was asked if the fact that Israel possessed nuclear power weakened the West's position against Iran.

"Israel is a democracy and does not threaten anyone," he exclaimed. The only thing we have tried to do is to live without (threats of) terror, but we have never threatened to destroy another nation. Iran explicitly and publicly threatens to wipe Israel off the map."

Olmert then went on to admit Israel's nuclear capability.

"The US, Russia, France, Britain and Israel have nuclear weapons but they do not threaten any one with it."

And how long before the UN and IAEA demand Israel cease its nuclear weapons program, impose sanctions, and engage in all other activities designed to choke Israel's defense capabilities against the Arab states whose stated goal is the annihilation of Israel?

Olmert made the statements in a fit of rage - not part of a calculated or reasoned statement. The ambiguity made Israel's position relating to the NPT and other international treaties a whole lot more defensible because Israel is not a signatory to the NPT.

Israel's nuclear weapons capability was long considered an open secret, especially after the spy Mordechai Vanunu was captured. Many figured that they possessed the means and technology to produce weapons grade uranium and/or plutonium for the weapons. Estimates place Israel's stockpile at between 100 and 200 weapons, though it may be as many as 400.

What exactly was Olmert thinking when he made such statements (more likely, he wasn't thinking through the consequences of making the statements in the first place)? There were plenty of ways Olmert could have responded to the question without even addressing Israel's nuclear capabilities. He could have ignored the question or noted that Israel does not speak to its defense capabilities but honors the threats posed by Iran especially should it become nuclear capable. Instead, he shoots off his mouth without thinking things through.

It appears that Olmert's vanity and shortsightedness have undermined Israel's strategic posture in the region. Now, perhaps Olmert thinks that by going public with Israel's nuclear capabilities that this will act as a deterrent to Iran's intentions, but Iran's endgame is far different than Israel's strategic posture. Israel wants to survive, but Iran's Ahmadinejad seeks to bring about an apocalyptic vision based on his religious background and theology. Deterrence is not in Iran's future because deterrence presupposes that assured destruction is something to be avoided (MAD being the key underpinning of the Cold War between US and USSR - neither wanted to bring about their own destruction by firing on the other side).

UPDATE:
Added a link to the initial story but here comes the backtracking. JPost reports that:

The Prime Minister's Office denied on Monday evening that Olmert's statement was an official acknowledgment that Israel possessed nuclear weapons.

Israel has constrained itself for decades by insisting on a policy of 'amimut,' nuclear ambiguity or opacity, never admitting to its real capabilities, necessitating local journalists to add the line 'according to foreign sources' every time they report on Israel's alleged nuclear weapons.

It's tough to try and deny unambigious statements such as what Olmert stated. So, what is the rationale behind Olmert making the statement?

The only way it makes sense is if the Israelis want to make Olmert appear to be more unhinged than Ahmadinejad. In other words Israel becomes that much more dangerous if provoked because Olmert might go that extra step - so don't even try it. Even this rationale fails because Ahmadinejad wants to provoke that kind of response in the first place. He doesn't care if Iran is turned into a parking lot just as long as his apocalyptic visions are brought about.

UPDATE:
Hot Air has more on Olmert's comments and the world's worst kept secret. Confederate Yankee and Bill's Bites also chimes in. Professor Bainbridge wonders about the strategic ambiguities and where the Israelis have the nukes stashed.