Nuclear Detonation Or Not: That Is the Question

As scientists and intel agencies around the world scurry to try and figure out what exactly happened in North Korea yesterday, there is quite a bit of ink being spilled over whether North Korea actually detonated a nuclear weapon or not.

The Washington Times reports that the US doesn't think a weapon was detonated:

U.S. intelligence agencies say, based on preliminary indications, that North Korea did not produce its first nuclear blast yesterday.

U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that seismic readings show that the conventional high explosives used to create a chain reaction in a plutonium-based device went off, but that the blast's readings were shy of a typical nuclear detonation.

"We're still evaluating the data, and as more data comes in, we hope to develop a clearer picture," said one official familiar with intelligence reports.

"There was a seismic event that registered about 4 on the Richter scale, but it still isn't clear if it was a nuclear test. You can get that kind of seismic reading from high explosives."

The underground explosion, which Pyongyang dubbed a historic nuclear test, is thought to have been the equivalent of several hundred tons of TNT, far short of the several thousand tons of TNT, or kilotons, that are signs of a nuclear blast, the official said.

The official said that so far, "it appears there was more fizz than pop."

Well, it could have actually been a fizzle, which is when the nuclear reactions do not achieve the optimum rates and the explosion falls well short of the intended yield. Indeed, the Washington Post seems to point in that direction. It's a possibility I had mentioned yesterday. A new possibility has emerged that the DPRK hasn't detonated a nuclear device at all, but instead fired off an equivalent amount of conventional explosives to give the appearance of a nuclear device. In other words, the North is trying to bluff its way into getting the world community to concede on negotiations and other issues. The Times reports that the seismic event may have been a partial success. Well, if getting your name back in the papers is any indication of success, then Kim's strategy worked. However, if it means that the US concedes to negotiations, then that's an open question.

Still, it remains a mystery as to what actually happened, or whether there was a second blast made.

All the same, North Korea is apparently making new and overt threats of launching a nuclear tipped missile at the US.

A North Korean official threatened that communist nation could fire a nuclear-tipped missile unless the U.S. acts to resolve its standoff with Pyongyang, Yonhap news agency reported Tuesday.
"We hope the situation will be resolved before an unfortunate incident of us firing a nuclear missile comes," the unnamed official said on Monday, according to a Yonhap report from Beijing. "That depends on how the U.S. will act."

Yonhap didn't say how or where it contacted the official, why no name was given or why it delayed reporting until Tuesday. ...

"We have lost enough. Sanctions can never be a solution," the official said. "We still have a willingness to give up nuclear weapons and return to six-party talks as well. It's possible whenever the U.S. takes corresponding measures."

Still think ballistic missile defense was a dumb idea or billions spent unwisely? I don't. Not when there are nutjobs running totalitarian dictatorships who want nuclear weapons.

Keep in mind that Adolph Hitler wasn't the sharpest tool in the shed and killed tens of millions of people in the war he started. At the end in 1945, he was busy directing make-believe armies into phony battles, and anyone who tried to impose reality on him found themselves dispatched to the front lines, which not incidentally was right outside the bunker. Trying to make sense out of what North Korea is trying to do is the same as trying to figure out why Hitler was sending make-believe army divisions into France when France was already lost. These are people who are beyond logic and reasoning, and their altered reality precludes rational negotiations. Survival might be one of Kim's priorities, but his actions actually reduce his likelyhood of survival, not increase them.

Joe Katzman reminds folks that North Korea isn't even the real issue here. He thinks it's China. China might be pulling some of the strings, but the DPRK isn't responding as it used to. That's why there's so much friction between the two countries at this point. The North's nuclear ambitions have actually threatened China's role vis-a-vis Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the US. It's made China's actions far more difficult, and isn't helpful to China at all.

China might want to rethink its relationship with North Korea, but they don't want military action to be the endgame at the UN. Neither do the Japanese, so that puts the UN on a course to more sanctions, which have not done much of anything to dissuade Kim from pursuing nuclear weapons.

We've finally arrived at a crisis point with each of the named nations in the Axis of Evil. Is that really a surprise? There's a reason that those nations were named - because they were pursuing an agenda of evil, which further punishes their citizens and threatens their neighbors with death and destruction.

UPDATE:
Wretchard has an interesting discussion as to whether the North was testing a suitcase nuke, or a low-yield weapon that is meant to be under the threshold for a conditioned automatic response, which is a worst case scenario. After all, those have the most value to terrorists, and could command serious buckage on the black market. Of course, the retribution for such actions should be swift, harsh, and final. A conditioned automatic response is the kind of thing that NORAD plans for regularly - the launch of thousands of incoming nuclear tipped missiles, and the response against the usual suspects will be in 45 minutes or less, or your mutually assured destruction claims go by the boards. A single low-yield nuke would not trigger the automatic responses, and the question would become who conducted the attack, and then the proper response, all of which would take precious time from engaging in a swift response.

UPDATE:
It's now official. It was a fizzle. What should have been a 4kt blast was far less than that - about .5kt. Some North Korean scientists will have much to answer for that failure. Kim doesn't tolerate failure very well.

Combine the fizzle with the missile failures from earlier this year, and you have to wonder just how effective any of North Korea's military equipment is these days. Still, you have to honor the threat and deal with North Korea as though they can correct the deficiencies and put US interests within range of nuclear weapons.

UPDATE:
Well, it was a US official saying that it was a fizzle, not the official statement that it was a fizzle. So we're still awaiting a determination one way or another. Figures.

All this means that I'll be able to trot out the phrase, "fer schnizzle, it's a fizzle" a few more times.

Ed Morrissey has a guest post from none other than [ed: sometimes things don't translate well on the Internet] comments from Senator John McCain. He offers some strong criticism of the Clinton Administration, and Sen. Clinton, who has come out attacking the Bush Administration's efforts on North Korea:

The President is right to call on the Council to impose a military arms embargo, financial and trade sanctions, and, most importantly, the right to interdict and inspect all cargo in and out of North Korea. I hope the Council quickly adopts these sanctions, and that all members enforce them.

The worst thing we could do is accede to North Korea’s demand for bilateral talks. When has rewarding North Korea’s bad behavior ever gotten us anything more than worse behavior?

I would remind Senator Hillary Clinton and other Democrats critical of Bush Administration policies that the framework agreement her husband’s administration negotiated was a failure. The Koreans received millions in energy assistance. They diverted millions in food assistance to their military. And what did they do? They secretly enriched uranium.

Prior to the agreement, every single time the Clinton Administration warned the Koreans not to do something -- not to kick out the IAEA inspectors, not to remove the fuel rods from their reactor -- they did it. And they were rewarded every single time by the Clinton Administration with further talks. We had a carrots and no sticks policy that only encouraged bad behavior. When one carrot didn’t work, we offered another.

This isn’t just about North Korea. Iran is watching this test of the Council’s will, and our decisions will surely influence their response to demands that they cease their nuclear program. Now, we must, at long last, stop reinforcing failure with failure.

Indeed.

Others blogging the situation: Former Spook, Hot Air, Tigerhawk, Blue Crab Boulevard, Macranger, and Dan Riehl.

Technorati: north korea, nuclear, kim jong il, six party talks, bush, DPRK.