Hizbullah Surprised At Israeli Response

Deputy Chief of Hizbullah, Naeem Kasam said Saturday that the organization was surprised at the extent of Israel's response to the kidnapping of IDF soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser.

"We were surprised by the size and strength of the Israeli reaction. We expected that the IDF would bomb areas close to the border for several days and only cause minimal damage," Kasam said in an interview with Lebanese newspaper A-Nahar.

According to the deputy, Hizbullah had information that the US and Israel were planning to launch an attack against the organization in September or October, but due to American and Israeli public pressure following the kidnapping of the two soldiers, the attacks were carried out earlier, prior to Israel being fully prepared for a full-scale attack.

Furthermore, Kasam noted that Hizbullah would not disarm because Israel continued to occupy the Shabba Farms, still held Lebanese prisoners and IAF planes flew in Lebanese airspace on a day-to-day basis.

And yet, Israel's response was quite limited and haphazard due to the political considerations and dithering by PM Olmert, who refused to unleash the full potential of the IDF on Hizbullah. Perceived political considerations trumped the strategic and tactical necessities of eliminating Hizbullah in South Lebanon and allowed Hizbullah to remain largely intact despite the pounding dished out by the Israelis.

It's also curious to note that Kasam claims that Hizbullah wouldn't disarm because Israel continued to occupy Sheba Farms, held Lebanese prisoners and the IAF flew into Lebanese airspace. Well, Israel wouldn't be holding Lebanese prisoners or flying into Lebanese airspace had Hizbullah not attacked Israel in the first place. The issue of Sheba Farms has been addressed by the UN in the past, which had stated that Israel did not occupy that area. Hizbullah simply doesn't recognize that to be the case. Via Wiki:

The area is about 14 km (9 miles) in length, and averages 2.5 km (2 miles) in width, coming to about 25 square km (10 square miles). Altitudes range from 150 to 1,880 meters (490–6,170 feet).[1] Its fertile, well-watered, mountainous soil formerly produced tobacco, barley, fruits, and vegetables on 14 farms,[2] but is now desolate.

It was captured by Israel from Syria during the Six Day War in 1967, which did not involve Lebanon. Israel considers the Shebaa Farms to be part of the Golan Heights,[3] and extended Israeli law to the region in 1981[4], in an action declared as 'null and void and without international legal effect' in UN SCR 497. The controversy over the Farms first arose in 2000, as the United Nations certified Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon was complete. Israel's annexation of the Shebaa Farms has been contested by Hezbollah (since May 2000) as a reason for its continued attacks on Israel after Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon.

The situation surrounding the Sheba Farms question shows the extent of the problems formed by the defeat of the Ottoman Empire and the carving up of the region by the Europeans following World War I.

The French controlled the area now made up of the Golan, Lebanon and Syria, and they set up the boundaries. Of course, they also failed to delineate where the border between Lebanon and Syria ended, giving rise to the fact that no one quite knows whether the area belongs to Syria or Lebanon. Syria says the area belongs to Lebanon, and since the UN certified that Israel had completely withdrawn from Lebanon in 2000, that would suggest that Israel did not have any forces inside the Sheba Farms.

All this gets complicated further since UN SCR 1701 once again raises questions over this area. By raising questions over the status of Sheba Farms, the UN gives undue credence to Hizbullah. It also shows the extent to which the Europeans arbitrarily set borders of the region in the early 20th Century that made little or no sense in terms of ethic or religious identities. Those decisions continue to haunt the region to this day.