Bark and Bite

Iran is barking once again, as John of Stop the ACLU notes. They're threatening to attack Israel if the US takes actions to put an end to Iran's nuclear program.

Where have we heard this one before. Oh yes, before and during the first Gulf War with Iraq. Saddam threatened to inflict reprisals against Israel, who was not a part of the coalition of countries arrayed against Iraq. Once the fighting began, Iraq sought to disrupt the coalition by provoking Israel into responding by lobbing dozens of SCUD missiles into Israel. Israel was paid off by the US to sit on the sidelines, and became a testing ground for anti-missile systems as Patriot missile defense batteries were arrayed to defend against the incoming missiles.

Iran is once again playing from the Saddam playbook. This time, however, the US, and Israelis shouldn't worry whether Israel would respond. There will not be a coalition of countries that could be disrupted by Israel's actions that threatens the overall mission. Perhaps Iran feels that inciting Israel to respond would rally other Arab and Muslim countries to their cause, but that isn't likely as there aren't any Middle Eastern countries with the military assets capable of fighting at the level of the US or Israelis. Sure, terrorist outfits funded by Iran could inflict damage, but eliminate the paymasters, and the terrorists would wither away before long.

Russia and China will not back sanctions against Iran. What a surprise. China needs a steady supply of oil far more than the US does. And Russia needs someone to sell its weapons systems to. Once again, we're seeing that Russia and China are acting in their own self interests that put them at odds with the US and even their own long term interests because a nuclear Iran threatens their own survival just as much as it does the US only that the Russians and Chinese think that Iran going after the US would delay their day of reckoning.