Thursday, February 23, 2006

Iraq Headed Towards Civil War?

That's the headline being blared across front pages at MSNBC. Other outlets are only slightly more restrained with the NYT, CNN, and other major media outlets calling this a major increase in sectarian violence.

Are they right?

Yesterday's massive attack against the Golden Dome Mosque in Samarra, destroying the historic shrine holy to Shi'ites, sparked a major reprisal response among some Shi'ites. While Sistani has called for calm, other groups have gone out and attacked Sunni groups and mosques.

More than 100 people have been killed in response to the terrorist attack against the Golden Dome mosque. Sunni mosques have been attacked and destroyed.

That, in turn, has raised fears of an Iraqi civil war.

Iran's Ahmadinejad claims that this is a US plot to cause additional violence so that the US stays in Iraq indefinitely.
Echoing Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ahmadinejad pinned the blame for Wednesday's Samarra shrine bombing on "Zionists" and foreign forces in Iraq.

"These heinous acts are committed by a group of Zionists and occupiers that have failed. They have failed in the face of Islam's logic and justice," Ahmadinejad said in a speech broadcast live on state television.

"But be sure, you will not be saved from the wrath and power of the justice-seeking nations by resorting to such acts," he said to cries of "Death to America" "Death to Israel" from a crowd of thousands of supporters in central Iran.
He's definitely trying to get ahead of the curve on the dementia scale. Oh, and pandering to the usual suspects at home and abroad.

Mohammad at Iraq the Model has some details that aren't found in the US reports:
The sense in the streets and the statements given by some Shia clerics suggest that retaliation attacks are organized and under control and are focusing on mosques frequented by Salafi and Wahabi groups and not those of ordinary Sunnis.

Looking at the geographic distribution of the attacked mosques, I found they were mostly in areas adjacent to Sadr city forming a line that extends from the New Baghdad district in the southeast to al-Hussayniya in the northeast.
Iraqis are realizing that it's the mosques most closely associated al Qaeda (Salafi and Wahabi) that are being attacked. They aren't necessarily going after other Sunni mosques. People are out in greater numbers than yesterday stocking up on supplies should the situation get worse.

Iraq Rising thinks that civil war is upon his country.
What happened yesterday with the destruction of the Samarra Mosque and the consequent Shia’a militia rampage is IMO the final straw that breaks the camels back.. We have finally come to the end of the road, and I don’t say this lightly, the civil war is finally upon us.

I’ve been going over what happened with friends here and in Iraq,, And most of my relatives agree that this was a well organised and deliberately staged event planned to finally push the country down the road of civil disorder and segregation.

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